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1、AluminumMarketAnalysisGroup3 魏魏会会地地, 李李春春晖晖, 邓邓丽丽娇娇, 彭彭湃湃, 李李艳超艳超, 高謇高謇, 戴亚戴亚, 王喜越王喜越商务英语商务英语061班班国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly1.Foundamentalanalysis1.1Quotation1.2Supplyanddemand1.3Relatedforeignfuturescontract-AluminuminLME1.4Relatedeconomicindex1.5Effectsofrelatedcommodities1.6Relatedevents1.7Co
2、nclusionsabouttheeconomicsituation国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly上海期货交易所期货合约行情2009年06月08日品品种种交割交割月月前结算前结算今开盘今开盘最高价最高价最低价最低价收盘价收盘价结算价结算价涨跌涨跌1涨跌涨跌2成交成交手手持仓手持仓手/变化变化0912135701345013495133001345013425-120-14584248002901001136101354013540133701345013490-160-120138990461002136801353013530134801348013485-20
3、0-1951262261.1QuotationSHaluminum1001isquotedas13490Yuanpertonin2009,6,8国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly1.2SupplyanddemandThesupplyisinexcessofthedemand.Therearemanyaluminumleftunusedinthehomemarket.Moreover,agreatdealofaluminumareimported.However,thecurrentaluminumpricestemporarilydeviatefromtherelat
4、ionshipbetweensupplyanddemandandthereisabullishtrendinthemarket.Thepresentsituationisinfavorofgoinglong.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly1.3AluminuminLMEName LME Al 03 highest：1655.0 Lowest：1595.0 Newest：1638.5Purchasing price：1637.0 Selling price：1640.0 Position：825480 ton Inventory: 4,274,550 ton国际期货
5、市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly1.4Relatedeconomicindex-DowJonesIndustrialAverage品种名称开盘最高最低最新涨幅%成交量持仓量日增仓昨收道琼工业8764.838802.288725.278735.47-0.33%63738292-08764.49国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyNASDAQ品种名称开盘最高最低最新涨幅%成交量持仓量日增仓昨收纳斯达克1850.481859.221846.34 1850.70 0.45%576925696-01842.40国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarket
6、AnalyTopCountriesinGDP,2008(billiondollars)countryGDPincreasingrate-EU189301.5%1USA143301.4%2Japan48440.7%3China42229.0%国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly09GDPThefirstseasonof2009,GDPoftheUSAis$3518.875billion,decreasing by 2.6%.Thefirstseasonof2009,GDPof16Europeancountriesis239.1297,decreasing by 2.5%;
7、whilethatof27countriesis2929.9779billion,decreasing by 2.4%. Inchina,GDPis￥6574.5billion,increasing 6.1%.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyCPI&PPIInMay2009,ChinasCPIdecreased by 1.4%andPPIdecreased by 7.2%comparedwithlastMay.IntheUSA,CPIinAprilwasclosetolastmonth,butdecreased 0.7%comparedwithlastyear.PP
8、IinAprilincreased 0.3%anddecreased 1.2%inMarch.CPIinEuropeincrease0.6%,butremainedthesameinMay.AndPPIkeptdecreasingby4.6%,madeitthegreatestdropinannualrate.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyConclusionTheUSAandEuropeareexperiencingeconomicdepreciation,theincreasingrateisslowingdown,andwontrecoversoon.Chi
9、naexperiencedlessrecession,andwillkeepincreasing.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly1.5EffectsofrelatedcommoditiesThefuturespricesofCopper,zinc,andaluminumarecloselyrelatedandsharecorrespondenttendency.Becausethepricesofcopperandzinctendtoincreaseasshownbelow,thepriceofaluminummayalsoincreaseinthefuture.
10、国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyThepriceofSHfuturescopper1001from13th,Mayto10th,Junesawanincrease.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyThepriceofSHfutureszinc1001from13th,Mayto10th,Junealsosawanincrease.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly1.6RelatedeventsThedollarhasweakenedininternationalcurrencytrading.Russiasto
11、ppedsupplyingaluminumtoAsia.Thepolicyofsupportingautomobileindustryinchinaincreasesthesalesofcarsanddemandofaluminum.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyFundstakepartinthealuminumfuturesexchange.Americanautomobileindustry,representedbyGM,isseriouslyweakenedduringtheeconomicrecession.Non-FerrousMetalIndust
12、ryPromotionPlanningwaspassedon2，25of2009有色金属产业调整和振兴规划TheholdingofLargereserves.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly1.7ConclusionOnthewhole,theadvantagesoutweighthedisadvantagesintermsofeconomicsituation.So,itisadvisabletogolong.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly2Technicalanalyses2.1价格分析-日K线（1）国际期货市场运作第3组Alumi
13、numMarketAnaly价格分析-日K线（2）国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly价格分析-周K线（1）国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly价格分析-周K线（2）国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly价格分析-月K线（1）国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly价格分析-月K线（2）国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly2.2沪铝1001日K线图09/5/13-09/06/10国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly沪铝1001周K线图08/08/29-09/
14、06/10国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly沪铝1001月K线图05/04/28-09/06/10国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly2.3 The analysis of the price of the aluminum: At present, the price line of the aluminum is upward. We can analysis it withthe following candlestick charts. 国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyResistance line Supp
15、ort line With the help of the daily candlestick chart, we draw the support line and the resistance line. The two lines form the upward parallelogram (平行四边形)。国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyWith the help of the weekly candlestick chart, we draw the support line and the resistance line. The two lines ar
16、e upward together, so they form the wedge（楔形）Resistance line 国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyResistance line Support line With the help of the monthly candlestick chart, we draw the resistance line and the support line. The resistance line is upward, while the support line is horizontal.国际期货市场运作第3组Alu
17、minumMarketAnalyThe short-term price trend of the aluminum is upward, the medium-term price trend and the long-term price trend of the aluminum are also upward. They indicate the bullish direction. Therefore, we can buy at support in uptrend.Conclusions from the three candlestick chart国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly3.conclusionPricetrends：upwardmoderatelySuggestions:golongwithacautiousvolume国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly
