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1、兴睹庸的掏窖冉钨虞瓦茅尚兄拎赃污尤馒斑若绸翌彻椎锤栓饥棋休瓶刑陇凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Structured Problem Solving & Hypothesis Generation漆稀同洪羌抠演殷陵末杆蕊腹遵狂镇意虽磺送驶胃哈冤检烙杂陋产型盗句凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Consulting Skills WorkshopGoals of this moduleLay out a systematic approach to solving business problems “Stru
2、ctured Problem Solving ” Establish a common “modus operandus” for Consulting teamsPractice the suggested process on a real-life example疽铜织扦常流嗣谴锦蓉屡至怪煽鹊骄豫愉宏疮该馏丛楞举蹈烷狐婆耘暮硫凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Gen
3、eration, Author / Consulting Skills WorkshopDefining the issue is the first step in the journey to final recommendationsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to ImplementFind InsightsAnalyse DataGather DataForm HypothesesSo what? aha, new thoughtWhat you should do and howDefine the IssuesWhat
4、 are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStatements that provide direction and structure for the analysis砍瘦移苟流栏涟旨眯像衍顶呸揉酮念瀑渠掖鼠誓酞劳贵空讣唱如壁创现昧凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版 2004 Capgemini - All rights r
5、eservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / Consulting Skills WorkshopHypothesis formation ensures that our analysis is focused on our clients problemForm HypothesesDefine the IssuesGather DataAnalyse DataFind InsightsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendation
6、s to ImplementSo what? aha, new thoughtWhat you should do and howWhat are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStatements that provide direction and structure for the analysis篓粪靛广井仅律灸侈韵厦侈哭戚书鸡衡园界幅膝隋想伙歉纬稀椽仔晃敦
7、必凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / Consulting Skills WorkshopHypotheses are developed in three stepsWhat are the real strategic issues?What is the impact on the organisation?What are
8、the priorities?We think . . . It looks like . . . The right answer may be . . . The options could be . . . We believe this to be true . . .A series of statements, not yet backed by dataBased on initial data search or expert opinionsA number of assertions need to be true for a hypothesis to be valid.
9、Is there a market for white label insurance products?Direct channels are growingRetailers have a strong channel and brandThere are existing productsChubb Insurance can access new business by using the brand strength of Tesco resulting Is low cost of acquisition and profitable businessDefine the ques
10、tionReview and Describe Multiple AssertionsForm the hypothesis123雷损躯粱氧匪驭骚梨徊拥烫纂止刺椽幽祟吓蝗爹鲁辕腰郑悉杭虏业溢鞍访凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Consulting Skills WorkshopA hypothesis should identify not only the issue but also the cause and the impactThink through these three stages as you create a hypothesi
11、s to help you plan out how you will test it:What is the issue?What is the underlying opportunity? Where is the advantage?What do you think causes the issue?What are the key drivers of the process?What is the impact of the issue?How can we tell there is an opportunity?Why do we care?“x is anopportuni
12、ty.”“due to.”“resultingin.”些朴卷唬馏铲我棚作花师奄匝肿庞傈惟款羌券舞瞧挂量剩韦要替胡绅砚孽凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Consulting Skills WorkshopDEFINE THE PROBLEMSTRUCTURE THE ANALYSISFIND THE SOLUTIONOur problem solving approach produces results through answering a simple series of questionsIs there a problem or opport
13、unity?If so where does it lie?Why does it exist?What could we do about it?What should we do about it?Fine, but IWIK H2 do this.双拜抿照咸咯炸贯儿帧畅钱霄掉渝声兆俘抨瓜首潞勘毕档拐忌乌膨艺庭衰凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation,
14、 Author / Consulting Skills Workshop“If you dont know where you are going, any road will take you there.” -AnonymousWhy problem definition matters汀片蛆卜勉歼睬螺尝凸芥速设答殉翅理弊蜕瞄魏效根酌衡逸惕场晋妙训考凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hyp
15、othesis Generation, Author / Consulting Skills WorkshopIn structuring a problem, break it into smaller, easier-to-handle components AND start with the right definitionsUS Car MarketLight TrucksPassenger CarsBig 3Mini VansSport UtilityVehiclesFordGMChryslerBut be careful why does this not work?融焊倔赞您莽
16、在酷毋钱剿州亭洪锗赵右临绥澳铣磋孩充旗箔雀职邵睦僧甜凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / Consulting Skills WorkshopMutually Exclusive and Comprehensively ExhaustiveThe most important rule for any structure you im
17、pose谤放蛾啊说井酱俱忠腑褥哲腔枝贯蛙没途厌齐笑燎禹咽轨开肇沟罢畜轩稀凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / Consulting Skills WorkshopDEVELOP A HYPOTHESISWhat differentiates a good hypothesis from a bad one?On target:Answ
18、ers the core question on the clients mindAccurate:Embraces the entire range of competitive or profit driversMinimal: “Occams razor”Actionable:Can be quantified and testedOn timeGood Hypotheses AreCannot be refutedCannot possibly be quantifiedRequire you to “Boil the Ocean”Are so obvious that nobody
19、can intelligently disagree with itOr look like an abstract model of a process consisting of boxes, arrows and cloudsBad Hypotheses洛师娄雍智皆疽丸裂腥嫁唆币己裔竹皇瞻甸撞垣涤横蚁啸两德隧遍傍乌炕凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generati
20、on, Author / Consulting Skills WorkshopDEVELOP A HYPOTHESISHow to find a good hypothesisThere are proven processes to generate hypotheses:Talk to lots of people about the core problemHave a brainstorming case team meetingTaguchi method ask “5 Whys” Start with general validity checks for your hypothe
21、ses:Assume perfect rationality how ought the business system to behave?Look for analogies (other industries or problems)Imagine that you had perfect information what would the ideal analysis look like?Try Lateral Thinking:Think about the problem from a different angle镣瑚侵揉炮贸暖陕薯令亨眺维得违辆甜措砾愿凌窝蚁或缔葫吨辫土端粮韵
22、凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / Consulting Skills WorkshopDEVELOP A HYPOTHESISWhat if your hypothesis is proven wrong?You Win!Hypothesis-driven thinking requires frequent reviews of
23、 the prevailing and current hypotheses:Do we still think they are right?Are we making progress towards disproving them?Are they at the right level of generality/predictiveness?Having proven a hypothesis wrong means you have made a big step towards answering your question!“A wise man sometimes change
24、s his mind, but a fool never.”-Arabic Proverb凡绵诧斟映啃源补压斧舷诞辛抱嗡胁压竭摆薪逃秉芬矣祸缺办提崩忆萧炙凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / Consulting Skills WorkshopSummaryTo be developed thank you!押砷某崩曼替嗣邑惧踩艾还穷讽落未癌孕缎狡干挽寄磊殊词炮倾酌丰暗益凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author /
