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1、工程项目计划系统工程项目计划系统PROJECT PLANNING1 1l l在总目标确定后，分析总目标能否实现在总目标确定后，分析总目标能否实现在总目标确定后，分析总目标能否实现在总目标确定后，分析总目标能否实现l l计划同时又是目标的分解过程计划同时又是目标的分解过程计划同时又是目标的分解过程计划同时又是目标的分解过程l l计划是实施的指南和实施控制的依据计划是实施的指南和实施控制的依据计划是实施的指南和实施控制的依据计划是实施的指南和实施控制的依据l l业主和项目的其他方面需要利用计划的信息业主和项目的其他方面需要利用计划的信息业主和项目的其他方面需要利用计划的信息业主和项目的其他方面需要
2、利用计划的信息一、计划的作用一、计划的作用2 2One distinguishing feature of projects is that each is tailored toward some unique end-item or result. That uniqueness implies that every project must be defined anew and a scheme created telling everyone involved what to do.3 3Three things occur in Three things occur in the
3、planning and control the planning and control processprocess: (1) During the conception and definition : (1) During the conception and definition phases a plan is prepared specifying the project phases a plan is prepared specifying the project requirements, work tasks, responsibilities, schedules, r
4、equirements, work tasks, responsibilities, schedules, and budgets; (2) during the execution phase the plan and budgets; (2) during the execution phase the plan is compared to actual project performance, time, is compared to actual project performance, time, and cost; if there are discrepancies, (3)
5、corrective and cost; if there are discrepancies, (3) corrective actions are taken and the requirements, schedules, actions are taken and the requirements, schedules, and budgets updated.and budgets updated.4 4Planning stepsFor starters, the project team needs to answer questions about what has to be
6、 done, how it has to be done, by whom, in what order, for how much, and by when. The formalized way to answer these questions is through the planning process.5 5Project objectives, requirements, and scope are set;The specific work activities, tasks, or jobs to achieve objectives are broken down, def
7、ined, and listed;A project organization is created specifying the departments, subcontractors, and managers responsible for work activities6 6A schedule is prepared showing the timing of work activities, deadlines, and milestones;A budget and resource plan is prepared showing the amount and timing o
8、f resources and expenditures for work activities and related items;A forecast is prepared for time, cost, and performance projections for the completion of the project.7 7Tools of Project Planning Work breakdown structure and work packagesused to define the project work and break it down into specif
9、ic tasks.Responsibility matrixused to define project organization, key individuals, and their responsibilities.Events and milestonesused to identify critical points and major occurrences on the project schedule.8 8Gantt Chartsused to display the project master schedule and detailed task schedules.Ne
10、tworksclearly show interdependencies among activities.Critical path analysiscritical path gives the expected project duration.PERT/CPMprogram evaluation & review technology/critical path method9 9 Cost estimatingused to develop budgets and become the baseline against which project performance is eva
11、luated. Budgetingan estimate may have to be refined many times, but once it is approved, it becomes the budget. Forecastingplan is made before execution, so it has a nature of forecasting.1010二、计划的要求二、计划的要求 目标是灵魂目标是灵魂 符合实际符合实际 经济性要求经济性要求 全面性要求全面性要求 弹性要求弹性要求 详细程度要求详细程度要求 相应的风险分析相应的风险分析1111三、工程计划系统三、工
12、程计划系统1 1 1 1、计划过程：、计划过程：、计划过程：、计划过程：持续的、循环的、渐近的过程持续的、循环的、渐近的过程持续的、循环的、渐近的过程持续的、循环的、渐近的过程 计划作为一个阶段，它位于项目批准之后，计划作为一个阶段，它位于项目批准之后，计划作为一个阶段，它位于项目批准之后，计划作为一个阶段，它位于项目批准之后，项目实施之前；而作为一个项目管理的职能工作，项目实施之前；而作为一个项目管理的职能工作，项目实施之前；而作为一个项目管理的职能工作，项目实施之前；而作为一个项目管理的职能工作，它贯穿于工程项目生命期的全过程。在项目过程它贯穿于工程项目生命期的全过程。在项目过程它贯穿于工
13、程项目生命期的全过程。在项目过程它贯穿于工程项目生命期的全过程。在项目过程中，计划有许多版本，随着项目的进展不断地细中，计划有许多版本，随着项目的进展不断地细中，计划有许多版本，随着项目的进展不断地细中，计划有许多版本，随着项目的进展不断地细化、具体化，同时又不断地修改和调整，形成一化、具体化，同时又不断地修改和调整，形成一化、具体化，同时又不断地修改和调整，形成一化、具体化，同时又不断地修改和调整，形成一个前后相继的体系。个前后相继的体系。个前后相继的体系。个前后相继的体系。12122、工程项目计划的内容、工程项目计划的内容工期计划工期计划成本（投资）计划成本（投资）计划资源计划资源计划质量
14、计划质量计划其他计划其他计划13133 3、计划工作流程、计划工作流程、计划工作流程、计划工作流程总工期计划总工期计划项目定义、结构分解、项目定义、结构分解、组织结构设置组织结构设置实施方案实施方案劳动力使用计划劳动力使用计划网络计划网络计划资源使用计划资源使用计划其他费用计划其他费用计划成本计划成本计划支付计划支付计划收款计划收款计划资金计划资金计划符合符合实际实际分解落实分解落实否否是是14144、计划中的协调计划中的协调 按照总目标、总任务和总体计划，起草招按照总目标、总任务和总体计划，起草招标文件、签订合同标文件、签订合同 投标人的计划纳入整个项目的计划之中投标人的计划纳入整个项目的计
15、划之中 合同之间的协调合同之间的协调 不同层次计划的协调不同层次计划的协调 组织之间的协调组织之间的协调1515四、工期计划四、工期计划1 1、工期计划过程、工期计划过程、工期计划过程、工期计划过程 工期计划过程旨在确定工程活动的相关性及工期计划过程旨在确定工程活动的相关性及工期计划过程旨在确定工程活动的相关性及工期计划过程旨在确定工程活动的相关性及持续性，确保及时完成项目。它包括如下工作：持续性，确保及时完成项目。它包括如下工作：持续性，确保及时完成项目。它包括如下工作：持续性，确保及时完成项目。它包括如下工作：l l 安排并确定项目活动间的逻辑关系安排并确定项目活动间的逻辑关系安排并确定项
16、目活动间的逻辑关系安排并确定项目活动间的逻辑关系l l 根据所需的资源、具体的条件，估计各项活动的持续根据所需的资源、具体的条件，估计各项活动的持续根据所需的资源、具体的条件，估计各项活动的持续根据所需的资源、具体的条件，估计各项活动的持续时间；时间；时间；时间；l l 按总的进度目标编制详细的进度计划，形成网络，并按总的进度目标编制详细的进度计划，形成网络，并按总的进度目标编制详细的进度计划，形成网络，并按总的进度目标编制详细的进度计划，形成网络，并进行网络分析。进行网络分析。进行网络分析。进行网络分析。 工期计划是其他计划的工期计划是其他计划的工期计划是其他计划的工期计划是其他计划的基础基
17、础基础基础。16162、计划总工期的确定和分解、计划总工期的确定和分解 计划总工期作为项目的目标之一，对整个工计划总工期作为项目的目标之一，对整个工计划总工期作为项目的目标之一，对整个工计划总工期作为项目的目标之一，对整个工期计划具有规定性。一般在目标设计阶段就被确期计划具有规定性。一般在目标设计阶段就被确期计划具有规定性。一般在目标设计阶段就被确期计划具有规定性。一般在目标设计阶段就被确定，并在可行性研究阶段被分解、细化、论证或定，并在可行性研究阶段被分解、细化、论证或定，并在可行性研究阶段被分解、细化、论证或定，并在可行性研究阶段被分解、细化、论证或修改。修改。修改。修改。 总工期目标和主
18、要阶段的工期安排可以通过：总工期目标和主要阶段的工期安排可以通过：总工期目标和主要阶段的工期安排可以通过：总工期目标和主要阶段的工期安排可以通过：l l 分析过去同类或相似工程项目的实际工期资料，分析过去同类或相似工程项目的实际工期资料，分析过去同类或相似工程项目的实际工期资料，分析过去同类或相似工程项目的实际工期资料，并根据本工程的特点推算；并根据本工程的特点推算；并根据本工程的特点推算；并根据本工程的特点推算；l l 采用工期定额采用工期定额采用工期定额采用工期定额( (行业标准的滞后性；企业定额行业标准的滞后性；企业定额行业标准的滞后性；企业定额行业标准的滞后性；企业定额) )l l 实
19、际工程中，总工期目标通常从战略角度确定实际工程中，总工期目标通常从战略角度确定实际工程中，总工期目标通常从战略角度确定实际工程中，总工期目标通常从战略角度确定17173、工程活动持续时间的确定、工程活动持续时间的确定l l 能量化的工程活动能量化的工程活动能量化的工程活动能量化的工程活动工程范围的确定及工程量的计算；劳动组合和资源工程范围的确定及工程量的计算；劳动组合和资源工程范围的确定及工程量的计算；劳动组合和资源工程范围的确定及工程量的计算；劳动组合和资源投入量的确定；确定劳动效率；计算持续时间投入量的确定；确定劳动效率；计算持续时间投入量的确定；确定劳动效率；计算持续时间投入量的确定；确
20、定劳动效率；计算持续时间l l 非定量化的工作非定量化的工作非定量化的工作非定量化的工作按过去工程的经验或资料确定；与承担者协商确定按过去工程的经验或资料确定；与承担者协商确定按过去工程的经验或资料确定；与承担者协商确定按过去工程的经验或资料确定；与承担者协商确定l l 持续时间不能确定的情况持续时间不能确定的情况持续时间不能确定的情况持续时间不能确定的情况Monte CarloMonte Carlo模拟；模拟；模拟；模拟；DelphiDelphi专家评议；三种时间的专家评议；三种时间的专家评议；三种时间的专家评议；三种时间的估计法估计法估计法估计法l l 工程活动和持续时间均不确定工程活动和
21、持续时间均不确定工程活动和持续时间均不确定工程活动和持续时间均不确定滚动计划安排；加强对中间决策工作和决策点控制滚动计划安排；加强对中间决策工作和决策点控制滚动计划安排；加强对中间决策工作和决策点控制滚动计划安排；加强对中间决策工作和决策点控制 1818l l 横道图横道图横道图横道图 优点：清楚表达活动的开始时间、结束时间和持续优点：清楚表达活动的开始时间、结束时间和持续优点：清楚表达活动的开始时间、结束时间和持续优点：清楚表达活动的开始时间、结束时间和持续时间；使用方便；可安排工期并与劳动力计划、资时间；使用方便；可安排工期并与劳动力计划、资时间；使用方便；可安排工期并与劳动力计划、资时间
22、；使用方便；可安排工期并与劳动力计划、资源计划和资金计划相结合。源计划和资金计划相结合。源计划和资金计划相结合。源计划和资金计划相结合。 缺点：很难表达工程活动之间的逻辑关系；不能表缺点：很难表达工程活动之间的逻辑关系；不能表缺点：很难表达工程活动之间的逻辑关系；不能表缺点：很难表达工程活动之间的逻辑关系；不能表示活动的重要性；所表达的信息量较少；不能用计示活动的重要性；所表达的信息量较少；不能用计示活动的重要性；所表达的信息量较少；不能用计示活动的重要性；所表达的信息量较少；不能用计算机处理。算机处理。算机处理。算机处理。 4、工期计划方法、工期计划方法1919Gantt ChartsGan
23、tt ChartsThe The simplest simplest and and most most commonly commonly used used scheduling scheduling technique technique is is the the Gantt Gantt chart chart (or (or bar bar chart), chart), named named after after the the famous famous management management consultant consultant Henry L. Gantt (1
24、861-1919). Henry L. Gantt (1861-1919). The The chart chart consists consists of of a a horizontal horizontal scale scale divided divided into into time time unitsdays, unitsdays, weeks, weeks, or or monthsand monthsand a a vertical vertical scale scale showing showing project project work work eleme
25、ntselementstasks, activities, work packages, and so forth.tasks, activities, work packages, and so forth.2020Disadvantages of Gantt ChartsDisadvantages of Gantt ChartsOne disadvantage of the Gantt chart is that it does One disadvantage of the Gantt chart is that it does not explicitly show interrela
26、tionships among work not explicitly show interrelationships among work elements, meaning that it does not reveal the effect elements, meaning that it does not reveal the effect of one work element falling behind schedule on of one work element falling behind schedule on other elements. In most proje
27、cts, certain work other elements. In most projects, certain work elements must be completed by specific date to elements must be completed by specific date to ensure that the project is completed on target; ensure that the project is completed on target; however, others can fall behind without delay
28、ing the however, others can fall behind without delaying the project.project. 2121l l 网络计划技术网络计划技术 是一种以网状图形表示计划或工程开展顺序的工作是一种以网状图形表示计划或工程开展顺序的工作是一种以网状图形表示计划或工程开展顺序的工作是一种以网状图形表示计划或工程开展顺序的工作流程图。分单代号和双代号两种。流程图。分单代号和双代号两种。流程图。分单代号和双代号两种。流程图。分单代号和双代号两种。132546ACEBDF213222双代号网络图双代号网络图22226F23C15E32B24D2 7结束
29、结束 0 0开始开始 01A2单代号网络图单代号网络图2323The two common methods for constructing network diagrams are called activity-on-node (AON) and activity-on-arrow (AOA). Both were developed independently during the late 1950sAON as part of the CPM planning method, and AOA in the PERT method.2424Activity-on-arrow diagr
30、amsIn the AOA method, the activity is represented as a In the AOA method, the activity is represented as a directed line segment (called an arrow or arc) directed line segment (called an arrow or arc) between two nodes (or circles). The nodes represent between two nodes (or circles). The nodes repre
31、sent the start and finish events for the activity in the start and finish events for the activity in between them. (The numbers inside the nodes have between them. (The numbers inside the nodes have no significance here. In general, however, they are no significance here. In general, however, they a
32、re used to identify each event. The numbers do not used to identify each event. The numbers do not need to be in any particular sequence, but every need to be in any particular sequence, but every event must have a unique number.)event must have a unique number.)2525ij“Start” event“Finish” eventDura
33、tion Activity YAOA representation for an activity and its start and finish events262612345predecessor, immediate predecessor successor, immediate successorsequential activities, parallel activities dummy activities 2727An AOA network is constructed by first drawing An AOA network is constructed by f
34、irst drawing a node to represent the a node to represent the originorigin event; this event; this represents the start of the first activity in the represents the start of the first activity in the project. The final or project. The final or terminalterminal node in the network node in the network r
35、epresents the project completion. Every network represents the project completion. Every network should have only should have only one originone origin event and event and one one terminalterminal event. All arrows must progress toward event. All arrows must progress toward the right-end of the netw
36、ork and there can be no the right-end of the network and there can be no doubling back or loops.doubling back or loops.2828 Dummy activitiesA dummy activity is used to illustrate precedence relationships in AOA networks. It serves as a “connector”, however, and represents neither work nor time.In pr
37、actice, dummy activities should be used sparingly to keep the network as simple as possible.2929In constructing networks by hand, as a rule it is easiest to start by putting in dummy activities wherever they seem necessary, then removing them from places where they are not necessary. The “overriding
38、 rule” is that dummies cannot be removed whenever it results in two or more activities that run between the same two start and finish nodes.3030 Redundant activitiesAll activities in a project except the first one have predecessors. Although only the immediate predecessors need be known to construct
39、 a network, it is easy to accidentally specify more predecessors than necessary.3131ActivityActivityPredecessorsPredecessorsRedundant Redundant PredecessorsPredecessorsImmediate Immediate PredecessorsPredecessorsA A- -B BA AA AC CA AA AD DA, B, CA, B, CA AB, CB, CE EA, B, C, DA, B, C, DA, B, CA, B,
40、CD DF FA, B, CA, B, CA AB, CB, C3232The critical pathThe major use of networks is for schedulingdetermining how long the project will take (the expected project duration) and when each activity should be scheduled.3333The expected project duration, Te, is determined by finding the longest path throu
41、gh the network. A “path” is any route comprised of one or more arrows (activities) connected in sequence. The longest path from the origin node to the terminal node is called the critical path; this gives the expected project duration.3434 Multiple critical pathsCan a project have more than one crit
42、ical path? Why not? In the case of more than one critical path, a delay along any of these paths would extend the project duration. Suppose, you wanted to reduce the project duration; you would then have to shorten all the paths.3535 Early timesES and EFEarly timesES and EFESs and EFs are computed b
43、y taking a “ESs and EFs are computed by taking a “forward forward passpass” through the network. When an activity has ” through the network. When an activity has several immediate predecessors, its ES is the latest several immediate predecessors, its ES is the latest EF of all its immediate predeces
44、sors; this is the EF of all its immediate predecessors; this is the latest time when all the immediate predecessors latest time when all the immediate predecessors will be completed and, hence, the earliest time the will be completed and, hence, the earliest time the next activity can be started.nex
45、t activity can be started.3636 Late timesLS and LFLate timesLS and LFBegin by assigning a target completion date, TBegin by assigning a target completion date, TS S, , to the terminal node, we make a “to the terminal node, we make a “backward passbackward pass” ” through the network. Whenever an act
46、ivity is through the network. Whenever an activity is encountered that has multiple paths leading back encountered that has multiple paths leading back to it, it is the longest backward path that becomes to it, it is the longest backward path that becomes the basis for its LF. This is the same as sa
47、ying that the basis for its LF. This is the same as saying that it is the backward path with the smallest LS that it is the backward path with the smallest LS that provides the basis for an activitys LF.provides the basis for an activitys LF.3737 Total SlackThe ES and LS for an activity are often no
48、t the same. The difference between LS and ES (or LF and EF) is referred to as the total slack time (or the “slack”, or the “float”) of an activity.Total slack=LS-ES(=LF-EF)3838Total slack for activities on the critical path (called critical activities) is zero; hence, delaying any of these activitie
49、s will delay the project.Activities not on the critical path (called non-critical activities) can be delayed by their slack time without delaying the project completion. 3939 Free SlackThe term free slack refers to the amount of time an activity can be delayed without affecting the start times of an
50、y successor activities. The free slack of an activity is the difference between EF for the activity and the ES of its earliest successor:Free slack=ES(earliest successor)-EF4040 Management schedule reserveThe TThe Te e first computed from the network is usually first computed from the network is usu
51、ally not the duration specified as the contractual not the duration specified as the contractual completion time. completion time. A management schedule reserveA management schedule reserve is is established by setting the required target time Testablished by setting the required target time Ts s at
52、 some amount at some amount greater thangreater than the time of the final the time of the final scheduled event Tscheduled event Te e. Generally, the . Generally, the greater the greater the uncertaintyuncertainty of the project, of the project, the larger the schedule the larger the schedule reser
53、vereserve. .4141 Criticism of Network MethodsNetwork methods have been criticized since their inception because they incorporate assumptions and yield results that sometimes are unrealistic or prose problems to their users.4242Network methods assume that a project can be completely defined as a sequ
54、ence of identifiable, independent activities with known precedence relationships. In many projects, however, the work cannot always be anticipated, and not all activities can be clearly defined. Rather, projects “evolve” as they progress.4343Also, it is difficult to demarcate one activity from the n
55、ext, and the point of separation is more or less arbitrary. Sometimes successors can be started before predecessors are finished, so the two “overlap” in the sequence. Although overlap of activities shortens the estimated project duration, the arbitrariness of demarcating the activities increases it
56、s variation. 4444Precedence relationships are not always fixed, however, and the start of one activity may be contingent upon the outcome of an earlier one which may have to be repeated. The result of a test activity, for example, may necessitate redoing analysis and design, which in a network is a
57、“loop back” to activities that preceded the test.4545网络计划的基本原理网络计划的基本原理首先首先 绘制工程施工网络图绘制工程施工网络图然后然后 通过计算指出关键工作好关键线路通过计算指出关键工作好关键线路接着接着 选定目标不断改进计划选定目标不断改进计划, ,并对优化后的并对优化后的 方案付诸实施方案付诸实施最后最后 在执行过程中进行有效的控制好监督在执行过程中进行有效的控制好监督4646双代号网络图的绘制示例双代号网络图的绘制示例施工过程施工过程施工过程施工过程A AB BC CD D紧前工作紧前工作紧前工作紧前工作无无无无A AB BB
58、 B紧后工作紧后工作紧后工作紧后工作B BC.D.EC.D.E F.G F.GF F施工过程施工过程施工过程施工过程E EF FGGHH紧前工作紧前工作紧前工作紧前工作B BC.DC.DC.EC.EF.GF.G紧后工作紧后工作紧后工作紧后工作GGHHHH无无无无47472A3B4C5D6EFG8H174848关键工作和关键线路的确定关键工作和关键线路的确定若以网络终点节点的最早可能时间为网络总工期若以网络终点节点的最早可能时间为网络总工期则关键线路上的各工作总时差皆为则关键线路上的各工作总时差皆为0若以合同工期为网络总工期若以合同工期为网络总工期,则以线路上总时差之则以线路上总时差之和最小的线
59、路为关键线路和最小的线路为关键线路关键线路一般不止一条关键线路一般不止一条将关键线路的总时间缩短将关键线路的总时间缩短,关键线路可能变成非关关键线路可能变成非关键线路键线路4949各类时差的相互关系各类时差的相互关系Di-jDi-jDi-jFFi-jTFi-jIFi-jDFi-jTiETiLTjETjL5050PERT Three time estimatesPERT address uncertainty in the duration by using three time estimatesoptimistic, most likely and pessimistic. These es
60、timates then are used to calculate the “expected time” for an activity. The range between the estimates provides a measure of variability, which permits statistical inferences to be made about the likelihood of project events happening at particular times.5151The optimistic time is a minimum time ac
61、tivity could takethe situation where everything goes well; the most likely time is the normal time to complete the job; the pessimistic time is the maximum time an activity could takethe situation where bad luck is encountered at every step.The pessimistic time includes likely internal problems but
62、not environmental snags.5252The three estimates are related in the form of Beta probability distribution with parameters a and b at the end points, and m the modal, or most frequently, value. The PERT originators chose the Beta distribution because it is unimodal, has finite end points, and is not n
63、ecessarily symmetricalproperties that seem desirable for a distribution of activity times.5353035613Start of activityMost likely mOptimisticaAveragetePessimisticbActivity duration time t (days)Probability of t5454Based on this distribution, the mean or expected time te, and the variance, V, of each
64、activity are computed using the following formulas:te=(a+4m+b)/6V=(b-a)/62The larger V, the less reliable te, and the higher the likelihood that the activity will be completed much earlier or much later than te.5555 Probability of finishing by a target completion dateBecause statistically the expect
65、ed time of a sequence Because statistically the expected time of a sequence of independent activities is the sum of their of independent activities is the sum of their individual expected times, the expected duration of individual expected times, the expected duration of the project, Tthe project, T
66、e, is the sum of the expected activity , is the sum of the expected activity times along the critical path:times along the critical path:Te=teWhere Where te are expected times of the activities on the are expected times of the activities on the critical path.critical path.5656The variation in the pr
67、oject duration distribution is computed as the sum of the variances of the activity duration along the critical path:Vp=VWhere V are variances of the activities on the critical path.5757As examples, consider two questions about the project shown below:1) what is the probability of completing the pro
68、ject in 27 days?2) what is latest likely date by which the project will be completed?5858ij(a,m,b) te,VKey:17(6,15,30) 16,16.00834526(1,4,7) 4,1.00(3,4,5) 4,0.11(6,14,16) 13,2.78(4,11,12) 10,1.78(1,5,9) 5,1.78(1,2,3) 2,0.11(2,5,8) 5,1.00(3,12,21) 12,9.00(1,5,9) 5,1.78(5,7,9) 7,0.445959Path (events)P
69、ath (events)T=tT=te eV=(b-a)/6V=(b-a)/62 2a) 1-2-6-8a) 1-2-6-828*28*6.346.34b) 1-7-8b) 1-7-8202017.0017.00c) 1-2-5-7-8c) 1-2-5-7-829*29*6.006.00d) 1-4-5-7-8d) 1-4-5-7-818183.893.89e) 1-3-4-5-7-8e) 1-3-4-5-7-827*27*12.0012.00* Critical path* “Near” critical path6060Both questions can be answered by d
70、etermining the number of standard deviations that separate Ts from Te. The formula for the calculation is:z =Ts-Te(Vp)1/26161 Near-Critical pathsPutting too much emphasis on the critical path can lead managers to ignore other paths that are near-critical or have large variances, and which themselves
71、 could easily become critical and jeopardize the project.6262Because all activities in the network must be completed before the project is finished, the probability of completing the project within 29 days is the same as the probability of completing all five paths within 29 days.The chance of compl
72、eting all paths within 29 days is the product of the probabilities (1.01.0 0.67 0.72 0.5), which is less than 25 percent.6363 Simulating a PERT networkMonte Carlo computer simulation is a procedure that takes into account the effects of near-critical paths becoming critical. Times for project activi
73、ties are randomly selected from probability distributions and the critical path is computed from these times. The procedure is repeated thousands of times to generate a distribution of project duration. The procedure gives an average project duration and standard deviation that is more realistic tha
74、n simple PERT probabilistic analysis.6464Simulation allows the use of a variety of distribution besides Beta, including distributions based upon historical data. These generated project durations are more likely to represent the range of time to be expected. The method also avoids some limitations o
75、f PERT assumptions, such as independence of activities and normality of the project duration distribution.6565 Criticism of PERTPERT assumes that activity times can be accurately estimated and are independent. Getting three estimates instead of one adds to the work involved, and unless there is good
76、 historical data, all three are still guesses, which is not much of an improvement over a single “best” guess.6666If a “history” can be developed of similar activities from previous projects, activity time estimates can be improved. In fact, the requirement for good historical data upon which to bas
77、e estimates makes PERT more appropriate for projects that are somewhat “repeatable”. For this reason the three time estimates are used primarily in construction and standardized engineering projects, but seldom elsewhere.6767The assumption of activity times independence also has been criticized. The
78、 duration of an activity is influenced whenever resources originally planned for it are transferred to other activities that need expediting.Two other criticisms of PERT are that it leads to overly optimistic results and that the Beta distribution gives large errors in estimating Te.6868Critical pat
79、h method (CPM) Time-cost relationshipThe critical path method assumes that the estimated completion time for a project can be shortened by applying additional resourceslabor, equipment, capitalto particular key activities. It assumes that the time to perform any project activity is variable, dependi
80、ng on the amount of effort or resources applied to it.6969Unless stated otherwise, any given activity is assumed to be performed at a normal work pace. Associated with this pace is the normal time, Tnhow long the activity will take under normal work conditions. Also associated with the normal pace i
81、s the normal cost, Cn, the price of doing the activity in the normal time. 7070Usually the normal pace is assumed to be the most efficient and thus least costly pace. Extending the activity beyond the normal pace will not produce any additional savings and might well increase the cost.7171To reduce
82、the time to complete the activity, more resources are applied in the form of additional personnel and overtime. As more resources are applied, the duration is shortened, but the cost rises. When the maximum effort is applied so that the activity can be completed in the shortest possible time, the ac
83、tivity is said to be crashed. The crash condition represents not only the shortest activity duration, but the greatest cost as well.7272The time-cost of completing an activity under The time-cost of completing an activity under normal conditions and crash conditions theoretically normal conditions a
84、nd crash conditions theoretically defines two extreme points. The line connecting defines two extreme points. The line connecting these points, called the these points, called the cost slopecost slope, represents the , represents the time-cost relationship, or marginal trade-off of cost-time-cost re
85、lationship, or marginal trade-off of cost-time for the activity.time for the activity.Assuming a simple linear relationship, the formula Assuming a simple linear relationship, the formula for the cost slope is:for the cost slope is:Cost slope=(CCost slope=(Cc c-C-Cn n)/(T)/(Tc c-T-Tn n) )7373Direct
86、cost of activityCcCnTcTnCrashNormalSlower than normalCost slopeDuration of activity7474 Reducing project durationThe cost-slope concept can be used to determine The cost-slope concept can be used to determine the the most efficient waymost efficient way of shortening a project. of shortening a proje
87、ct. Shortest project durationThe step-by-step reduction eventually leads to the The step-by-step reduction eventually leads to the shortest possible project duration. Another way is to shortest possible project duration. Another way is to crash all activities at once. Then crash all activities at on
88、ce. Then stretchstretch or increase or increase any non-critical activity by a certain amount any non-critical activity by a certain amount without extending the project.without extending the project.7575 Total project costThe cost of conducting a project includes direct activity costs and indirect
89、costs such as administrative and overhead charges. Usually indirect costs are a function of, and increase proportionally to, the duration of the project. In other words, indirect costs, in contrast to direct costs, decrease as the project duration decreases.7676Project costTotal=direct+indirectDirec
90、t costOptimum durationProject durationIndirect cost7777In addition to direct and indirect costs, another cost that influences total project cost is any contractual incentive such as a penalty charge or a bonus payment.A penalty charge is a late fee imposed on the contractor for not completing a faci
91、lity or product on time. A bonus payment is a rewarda cash inducementfor completing the project early.7878Project costTotalPenaltyProject durationTotal & incentive00BonusIncentivesContract agreement7979五、成本计划五、成本计划1、积极的成本计划、积极的成本计划对不同方案的技术经济分析对不同方案的技术经济分析建设成本建设成本+运营成本运营成本全过程的成本计划管理全过程的成本计划管理项目赢利最大化项
92、目赢利最大化资金的供应资金的供应8080总投资按目标分解累计并对比目标设计、工作量定义分项估(预)算费用2 2、成本计划过程、成本计划过程、成本计划过程、成本计划过程8181InputsScope definitionTime to prepareQuality of cost dataEstimator skillEstimate accuracyAn estimates accuracy depends on the quality of key inputs82823、计划成本的确定、计划成本的确定固固定定资资产产投投资资设备及工器具购置费设备及工器具购置费建安工程费建安工程费工程建设其
93、他费用工程建设其他费用预备费（基本预备费、涨价预备费）预备费（基本预备费、涨价预备费）建设期贷款利息建设期贷款利息投调税投调税8383建筑安装工程费用的项目组成与计算建筑安装工程费用的项目组成与计算建筑建筑安装安装工程工程费用费用项目项目组成组成直接费直接费间接费间接费税金税金利润利润直接工程费直接工程费措施费措施费规费规费企业管理费企业管理费8484 前期策划阶段的估算前期策划阶段的估算参照过去同类工程信息，按照项目规模、生产参照过去同类工程信息，按照项目规模、生产参照过去同类工程信息，按照项目规模、生产参照过去同类工程信息，按照项目规模、生产能力或服务能力指标匡算能力或服务能力指标匡算能力
94、或服务能力指标匡算能力或服务能力指标匡算按照国家或部门颁布的概算指标计算按照国家或部门颁布的概算指标计算按照国家或部门颁布的概算指标计算按照国家或部门颁布的概算指标计算专家咨询法专家咨询法专家咨询法专家咨询法生产能力估算法生产能力估算法生产能力估算法生产能力估算法4、计划成本估算方法、计划成本估算方法8585 项目设计和计划阶段的概预算项目设计和计划阶段的概预算使用定额资料，如概使用定额资料，如概使用定额资料，如概使用定额资料，如概( ( ( (预预预预) ) ) )算定额算定额算定额算定额直接按部分工程，专项的供应或服务进行询价，直接按部分工程，专项的供应或服务进行询价，直接按部分工程，专项
95、的供应或服务进行询价，直接按部分工程，专项的供应或服务进行询价，以作为计划的依据以作为计划的依据以作为计划的依据以作为计划的依据采用已完工程的数据采用已完工程的数据采用已完工程的数据采用已完工程的数据合同价合同价合同价合同价8686 工程实施中的成本计划工作工程实施中的成本计划工作已完成或已支付成本已完成或已支付成本已完成或已支付成本已完成或已支付成本追加成本追加成本追加成本追加成本( ( ( (费用费用费用费用) ) ) )剩余成本计划剩余成本计划剩余成本计划剩余成本计划最终实际成本和结算价格最终实际成本和结算价格最终实际成本和结算价格最终实际成本和结算价格8787工程项目分阶段计价特点工程
96、项目分阶段计价特点项目建议项目建议书可行性书可行性研究研究初步初步设计设计技术技术设计设计施工施工招标招标施工图施工图设计设计合同合同实施实施竣工竣工验收验收投资投资估算估算设计设计概算概算修正修正概算概算施工图施工图预算预算合同合同价价工程工程结算结算竣工结算竣工结算竣工决算竣工决算8888合同报价书、施工预算合同报价书、施工预算合同报价书、施工预算合同报价书、施工预算施工组织设计或施工方案施工组织设计或施工方案施工组织设计或施工方案施工组织设计或施工方案人、料、机市场价格人、料、机市场价格人、料、机市场价格人、料、机市场价格公司颁布的材料指导价格、公司内部机械台班价格、劳动公司颁布的材料指
97、导价格、公司内部机械台班价格、劳动公司颁布的材料指导价格、公司内部机械台班价格、劳动公司颁布的材料指导价格、公司内部机械台班价格、劳动力内部挂牌价格力内部挂牌价格力内部挂牌价格力内部挂牌价格周转设备内部租赁价格、摊销损耗价格周转设备内部租赁价格、摊销损耗价格周转设备内部租赁价格、摊销损耗价格周转设备内部租赁价格、摊销损耗价格已签订的工程合同、分包合同（或估价书）已签订的工程合同、分包合同（或估价书）已签订的工程合同、分包合同（或估价书）已签订的工程合同、分包合同（或估价书）结构件外加工计划和合同结构件外加工计划和合同结构件外加工计划和合同结构件外加工计划和合同有关财务成本核算制度和财务历史资料
98、有关财务成本核算制度和财务历史资料有关财务成本核算制度和财务历史资料有关财务成本核算制度和财务历史资料5、施工成本计划的编制依据、施工成本计划的编制依据8989按施工成本构成编制施工成本计划按施工成本构成编制施工成本计划按施工成本构成编制施工成本计划按施工成本构成编制施工成本计划6、施工成本计划的编制方法、施工成本计划的编制方法施工成本施工成本人工费人工费材料费材料费施工机械使施工机械使用费用费措施费措施费间接费间接费9090按子项目组成编制施工成本计划按子项目组成编制施工成本计划按子项目组成编制施工成本计划按子项目组成编制施工成本计划单项工程施工成本单项工程施工成本单位工程单位工程1施工成本
99、施工成本单位工程单位工程2施工成本施工成本分部工程分部工程21施工成本施工成本分部工程分部工程22施工成本施工成本分项工程分项工程221施工成本施工成本分项工程分项工程222施工成本施工成本9191按工程进度编制施工成本计划按工程进度编制施工成本计划按工程进度编制施工成本计划按工程进度编制施工成本计划编制按时间进度的施工成本计划，通常可以利用控制项目进编制按时间进度的施工成本计划，通常可以利用控制项目进度的网络图进一步扩充而得。即在建立网络图时，一方面确度的网络图进一步扩充而得。即在建立网络图时，一方面确定完成各项工作所需花费的时间，另一方面同时确定完成这定完成各项工作所需花费的时间，另一方面
100、同时确定完成这一工作的合适的施工成本支出计划。一工作的合适的施工成本支出计划。在实践中，将工程项目分解为既能方便地表示时间，又能方在实践中，将工程项目分解为既能方便地表示时间，又能方便地表示施工成本支出计划的工作是不容易的。通常如果项便地表示施工成本支出计划的工作是不容易的。通常如果项目分解程度对时间控制合适的话，则对施工成本支出计划可目分解程度对时间控制合适的话，则对施工成本支出计划可能分解过细，以至于不可能对每项工作确定其施工成本支出能分解过细，以至于不可能对每项工作确定其施工成本支出计划。反之亦然。计划。反之亦然。因此在编制网络计划时，应在充分考虑进度控制对项目划分因此在编制网络计划时，
101、应在充分考虑进度控制对项目划分要求的同时，还要考虑确定施工成本支出计划对项目划分的要求的同时，还要考虑确定施工成本支出计划对项目划分的要求，做到两者兼顾。要求，做到两者兼顾。9292承包工程价款的主要结算方式承包工程价款的主要结算方式承包工程价款的主要结算方式承包工程价款的主要结算方式 按月结算按月结算按月结算按月结算: : 即先预付部分工程款，在施工过程中按即先预付部分工程款，在施工过程中按即先预付部分工程款，在施工过程中按即先预付部分工程款，在施工过程中按月结算工程进度款，竣工后进行竣工结算月结算工程进度款，竣工后进行竣工结算月结算工程进度款，竣工后进行竣工结算月结算工程进度款，竣工后进行
102、竣工结算 竣工后一次结算：工程价款每月月中预支，竣工后竣工后一次结算：工程价款每月月中预支，竣工后竣工后一次结算：工程价款每月月中预支，竣工后竣工后一次结算：工程价款每月月中预支，竣工后一次结算。（一次结算。（一次结算。（一次结算。（1212个月内，个月内，个月内，个月内，100100万元以下）万元以下）万元以下）万元以下） 分段结算：即当年开工，当年不能竣工的单项工程分段结算：即当年开工，当年不能竣工的单项工程分段结算：即当年开工，当年不能竣工的单项工程分段结算：即当年开工，当年不能竣工的单项工程或单位工程按照形象进度，划分不同阶段进行结算。或单位工程按照形象进度，划分不同阶段进行结算。或单
103、位工程按照形象进度，划分不同阶段进行结算。或单位工程按照形象进度，划分不同阶段进行结算。分段结算可以按月预支工程款。分段结算可以按月预支工程款。分段结算可以按月预支工程款。分段结算可以按月预支工程款。 结算双方约定的其他结算方式结算双方约定的其他结算方式结算双方约定的其他结算方式结算双方约定的其他结算方式。7、工程结算的方法、工程结算的方法9393工程预付款工程预付款 工程预付款是建设工程施工合同订立后由发包工程预付款是建设工程施工合同订立后由发包工程预付款是建设工程施工合同订立后由发包工程预付款是建设工程施工合同订立后由发包人按照合同约定，在正式开工前预先支付给承包人按照合同约定，在正式开工
104、前预先支付给承包人按照合同约定，在正式开工前预先支付给承包人按照合同约定，在正式开工前预先支付给承包人的工程款，国内习惯上又称为预付备料款。人的工程款，国内习惯上又称为预付备料款。人的工程款，国内习惯上又称为预付备料款。人的工程款，国内习惯上又称为预付备料款。 预付时间应不迟于约定开工日期前预付时间应不迟于约定开工日期前预付时间应不迟于约定开工日期前预付时间应不迟于约定开工日期前7 7天。天。天。天。 影响工程预付款额度的因素：工程的特点、工影响工程预付款额度的因素：工程的特点、工影响工程预付款额度的因素：工程的特点、工影响工程预付款额度的因素：工程的特点、工期长短、市场行情、供求规律等因素。
105、期长短、市场行情、供求规律等因素。期长短、市场行情、供求规律等因素。期长短、市场行情、供求规律等因素。9494工程预付款的扣回工程预付款的扣回发包人支付给承包人的工程预付款其性质发包人支付给承包人的工程预付款其性质是预支。是预支。扣款的方法由发包人和承包人通过商洽用扣款的方法由发包人和承包人通过商洽用合同的形式予以确定，可采用等比率或等额合同的形式予以确定，可采用等比率或等额扣款的方式。扣款的方式。9595工程进度款工程进度款工程进度款的计算，主要涉及两个方面：工程进度款的计算，主要涉及两个方面：一是工程量的计量；二是单价的计算方法一是工程量的计量；二是单价的计算方法(工工料单价、综合单价；可
106、调、固定料单价、综合单价；可调、固定)。工程进度款的支付，一般按当月实际完成工程进度款的支付，一般按当月实际完成工作量进行结算，工程竣工后办理竣工结算。工作量进行结算，工程竣工后办理竣工结算。9696 建安工程价款的动态结算建安工程价款的动态结算按实际价格结算法按实际价格结算法按实际价格结算法按实际价格结算法按主材计算价差按主材计算价差按主材计算价差按主材计算价差竣工调价系数法竣工调价系数法竣工调价系数法竣工调价系数法调值公式法调值公式法调值公式法调值公式法( (又称动态结算公式法又称动态结算公式法又称动态结算公式法又称动态结算公式法) )9797六、资源计划六、资源计划六、资源计划六、资源计
107、划1 1、工程项目资源的种类、工程项目资源的种类、工程项目资源的种类、工程项目资源的种类 资源作为工程项目实施的基本要素，资源作为工程项目实施的基本要素，资源作为工程项目实施的基本要素，资源作为工程项目实施的基本要素，通常包括通常包括通常包括通常包括：l l 劳动力，包括劳动力总量，各专业、各种级别的劳动力，劳动力，包括劳动力总量，各专业、各种级别的劳动力，劳动力，包括劳动力总量，各专业、各种级别的劳动力，劳动力，包括劳动力总量，各专业、各种级别的劳动力，以及不同层次和职能的管理人员；以及不同层次和职能的管理人员；以及不同层次和职能的管理人员；以及不同层次和职能的管理人员；l l 原材料和设备
108、，它构成工程建筑的实体；原材料和设备，它构成工程建筑的实体；原材料和设备，它构成工程建筑的实体；原材料和设备，它构成工程建筑的实体；l l 周转材料，如模板、支撑、施工用工器具以及施工设备周转材料，如模板、支撑、施工用工器具以及施工设备周转材料，如模板、支撑、施工用工器具以及施工设备周转材料，如模板、支撑、施工用工器具以及施工设备的备件、配件；的备件、配件；的备件、配件；的备件、配件；l l 项目施工所需的施工设备、临时设施和必需的后勤供应。项目施工所需的施工设备、临时设施和必需的后勤供应。项目施工所需的施工设备、临时设施和必需的后勤供应。项目施工所需的施工设备、临时设施和必需的后勤供应。分类
109、标准、分类标准、主体主体98982、资源问题的复杂性、资源问题的复杂性l l资源的种类多，供应量大资源的种类多，供应量大资源的种类多，供应量大资源的种类多，供应量大l l资源供应过程复杂资源供应过程复杂资源供应过程复杂资源供应过程复杂l l设计和计划与资源的交互作用设计和计划与资源的交互作用设计和计划与资源的交互作用设计和计划与资源的交互作用l l资源对成本影响很大资源对成本影响很大资源对成本影响很大资源对成本影响很大l l资源的供应受外界影响大资源的供应受外界影响大资源的供应受外界影响大资源的供应受外界影响大l l多项目协调平衡多项目协调平衡多项目协调平衡多项目协调平衡l l资源限制存在下限
110、资源限制存在下限资源限制存在下限资源限制存在下限9999l l确定资源种类、质量、数量确定资源种类、质量、数量确定资源种类、质量、数量确定资源种类、质量、数量l l资源供应情况调查和询价资源供应情况调查和询价资源供应情况调查和询价资源供应情况调查和询价l l确定约束条件确定约束条件确定约束条件确定约束条件l l在工期计划基础上确定资源使用计划在工期计划基础上确定资源使用计划在工期计划基础上确定资源使用计划在工期计划基础上确定资源使用计划l l确定供应方案、供应环节确定供应方案、供应环节确定供应方案、供应环节确定供应方案、供应环节l l确定后勤保障体系确定后勤保障体系确定后勤保障体系确定后勤保障
111、体系3、资源计划过程、资源计划过程100100l l资源的优先级资源的优先级资源的优先级资源的优先级(Priority)(Priority) 资源的数量和价值量资源的数量和价值量资源的数量和价值量资源的数量和价值量 增加的可能性增加的可能性增加的可能性增加的可能性 获得过程的复杂性获得过程的复杂性获得过程的复杂性获得过程的复杂性 可替代性可替代性可替代性可替代性 供应问题对项目的影响供应问题对项目的影响供应问题对项目的影响供应问题对项目的影响l l资源的平衡与限制资源的平衡与限制资源的平衡与限制资源的平衡与限制 资源的平衡资源的平衡资源的平衡资源的平衡(Leveling)(Leveling) 资源的限制资源的限制资源的限制资源的限制(Constraints)(Constraints)4、资源计划的优化、资源计划的优化101101
