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1、 BEC中级阅读：谁说瘾君子没有理性I feel that it is time to share a secret. When I left on my holiday just over a week ago, I was fighting a battle with a deep-rooted addiction. I feel able to admit this, since over the course of my holiday I was able to go through cold turkey, conquer the addiction, and face the w
2、orld clean. 从今以后，我只喝不含咖啡因的咖啡。上瘾即使是像过滤咖啡这样温柔的东西是一个经济学家不太可能解决的问题，由于多数经济学理论的猜测都是建立在理性行为根底上的，而上瘾好像在本质上就是非理性的。 Its decaffeinated coffee for me from now on. Addiction even to something as benign as filter coffee - is an unlikely topic for an economist to tackle, because most economic theory is predicated
3、on rational behaviour, and addiction seems to be quintessentially irrational. 对该问题符合规律的答复消失在1988年。凯文?M?墨菲(Kevin M. Murphy)和诺贝尔经济学奖得主加里?贝克(Gary Becker)发表了理性上瘾理论(A Theory of Rational Addiction)一书，自此定义了经济学家讨论上瘾的方法。该理论很简单阐述：瘾君子选择了自己的毒药，尽管他们知道简单上瘾，并且特别危急，他们这样做的缘由是，他们期望上瘾带来的兴奋会超过它带来的苦痛。 The logical respon
4、se appeared in 1988. A Theory of Rational Addiction was published by Kevin M. Murphy and Nobel laureate Gary Becker, and has defined economists approaches to addiction ever since. The theory is easy to state: it is that addicts choose their poison despite knowing that it is habit-forming and dangero
5、us, and they do so because they expect the highs to outweigh the lows. 即使其他经济学家对此也持疑心态度。“他们不知道自己在说什么，”托马斯?谢林(Thomas Schelling)获得诺贝尔经济学奖不久后遇见我时说。谢林试图戒除烟瘾已经有多年时间了。 Even other economists are sceptical. “They dont know what theyre talking about,” opined Thomas Schelling when I met him shortly after he,
6、too, was awarded the Nobel prize in economics. Schelling had spent years trying to kick his tobacco addiction. 然而，理性上瘾方法可能并没有它看上去那样荒唐。一些习惯的养成是符合理性的。对我而言，跟女朋友约会已经足够形成习惯，以至最终向她求婚了。到目前为止，我并不懊悔。 Yet perhaps the rational addiction approach is not quite as absurd as it seems. Some habits are rational to a
7、cquire. Dating my girlfriend was habit-forming enough for me to ask her to be my wife. So far I have no regrets. 将打算喝咖啡或开头约会与打算抽烟或注射海洛因相比，好像颇为荒唐，但假如贝克和墨菲是对的，那么这种差异就不是性质上的，而是程度上的。 It seems absurd to compare the decision to drink coffee or start dating with the decision to smoke cigarettes or inject h
8、eroin, but if Becker and Murphy are right the difference is not of kind, but of degree. 理性瘾君子应当具备某些行为特征。举例来说，他们不仅应当对当前的价格上涨做出反响，还应当对将来预期中的价格上涨做出反响。假如海洛因的价格可能上涨，那么理性的瘾君子就应当考虑在价格上涨之前戒掉毒瘾。 Rational addicts should behave in certain ways. They should, for instance, respond not just to current price incre
9、ases but to expected future price hikes. If heroin is likely to get more expensive, rational addicts should consider trying to quit before that happens. 瘾君子对于长久的价格变化甚至可能比非瘾君子更加敏感。由于上瘾具有自我增加的特性，因此当理性瘾君子想戒瘾的时候，突然戒除法是做到这一点的高效率途径。 Addicts may even be more sensitive to lasting price-shifts than non-addic
10、ts. And since addiction is self-reinforcing, when the rational addict wants to quit, cold turkey is the efficient way to do it. 经济学家已经找到了一些证据来支持这些论点：帕梅拉?莫比丽亚(Pamela Mobilia)发觉，假如赌客估计赛马庄家的收入会增加（这将增加赌瘾的本钱），他们就会削减赌注；尼尔斯?奥莱卡恩斯(Nilss Olekalns)和彼得?巴兹利(Peter Bardsley)发觉，喝咖啡上瘾的人也表现出相像的先见之明；菲利浦?库克(Philip Coo
11、k)和乔治?陶亨(George Tauchen)发觉，当美国一些县提高酒税时，肝硬化发病率比整体消费水平的下降幅度更大，说明削减饮酒量最多的是酗酒者。 Economists have found some evidence to support these ideas: Pamela Mobilia finds that betting at racetracks falls in anticipation of increases in bookies takings, which would make the gambling habit more costly; Nilss Olekal
12、ns and Peter Bardsley find that coffee addicts show similar foresight; Philip Cook and George Tauchen found that when some US counties raised taxes on alcohol, liver cirrhosis fell more sharply than overall consumption, suggesting that it was the alcoholics who cut back most. 我自己的咖啡瘾完全是理性的：我正在写一本新书，
13、随着最终期限的接近，我喝的咖啡越来越多，尽管我已经开头依靠咖啡因。在交稿后，我在度假时采纳了突然戒除法，由于我明白，当我在威尔士海岸闲逛时，头疼和精神萎靡的苦痛程度要轻得多。 My own addiction was perfectly rational: Im working on a new book, and as deadlines loomed I drank more and more coffee, even though I was becoming dependent on the caffeine. Manuscript submitted, I went cold tur
14、key on holiday, knowing that the headache and sluggishness of mind would be both less painful and less important while wandering around the Welsh coast. 固然，这只是咖啡因。但即使是吸食海洛因的人也可以在上瘾后，在形势逼迫下戒掉。心理学家李?罗宾斯(Lee Robins)发觉，在越战期间，几乎半数的美国士兵都吸食海洛因或者鸦片，但很少有人上瘾，近90的人在回到美国后就戒掉了毒瘾。我自己肯定不想尝试海洛因，但与我的咖啡瘾一样，开头吸毒和尝试戒毒的
15、打算好像都是对环境的理性反响。 That is only caffeine, of course. But even heroin users can addict themselves and then quit as circumstances dictate. The psychiatrist Lee Robins found that almost half of US soldiers used heroin or opium while in Vietnam, but rather fewer were actually addicted and almost 90 per cent of those kicked the habit upon returning to the US. I have absolutely no desire to try heroin myself, but it seems that both the decision to start and the decision to try to quit were, like my coffee habit, rational responses to circumstances. 我不得不指出，许多英国内阁大臣在大学期间都抽大麻，但后来都戒掉了。但容我悄声说一句，理性的或许不仅仅是瘾
