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1、欧元区债务危机对美元指数及国际黄金价格走势影响分析摘 要金融危机以来，多数国家为了应对危机，实施了刺激经济复苏的量化宽松货币政策，为通货膨胀预期埋下了伏笔，而市场对通货膨胀的预期渐渐开始释放，投资者为了应对货币持续扩张的风险，明显增加了对黄金的需求，导致国际金价逐步走高。市场避险情绪上升，黄金作为市场喜爱的避险品种再次受到追捧。受欧洲债务危机拖累，欧元汇率持续疲软，欧元持有者也大量抛售欧元购入美元，导致美元指数震荡走高。随着危机的不断扩大，欧盟和国际货币基金组织的援助计划的推出，以及美联储重启量化宽松货币政策QE2，使得美元指数在连续走高后开始逐步下行。而美元指数无序宽幅波动，也反映了国际金融
2、市场的不稳定性。2009年底,金融危机的风暴还未完全散去,又一场大规模的主权债务危机登上了舞台。 包括希腊、葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、西班牙等国先后出现了严重的财政赤字和公共债务崩溃， 欧盟稳定与增长公约的警戒线也形同虚设，欧盟7500亿的输血计划没有让欧元区顿时起死回生，各个国家面临极大的主权信用风险。 金融危机留下的隐患,使得欧盟近两年经济增长乏力，但同时仍必须维持高福利的社会待遇， 而欧盟成员国经济发展又不均衡，导致财政负担非常沉重。欧盟内在的制度使得其成员国缺乏用货币政策工具来调控宏观经济， 财政支出扩大具有内生性的倾向，加上没有严格的约束机制和惩罚机制，造成此举愈演愈烈。欧盟目前如果想
3、尽快走出困境，除了采取有力的救助计划之外，还应对整个经济制度框架进行改革，制定出统一的财政政策制度框架和严格约束惩罚机制。欧洲主权债务危机本质上是欧洲经济一体化的制度缺陷在金融危机冲击下的一次总爆发。本文就欧债危机的演进路径进行了简要的分析与判断，讨论了欧债危机对美元指数以及国际金价的走势产生的一系列影响。并且通过此次危机对我国政府在制定宏观经济政策以及调整产业结构时起到一定的警示作用，同时能够预防国际投机资本对我国经济的冲击。关键词：主权债务危机 信用风险 宽幅波动 制度缺陷The impact analysis of eurozone debt crisis against the dol
4、lar index and international gold price trend ABSTRACTSince the financial crisis, most countries in order to cope with the crisis, implement the quantitative an economic recovery looser monetary policy, for inflation expectations, and buried a foreshadowing the market to the inflation expectations sl
5、owly began to release, investors in order to deal with currency risk of continued expansion dramatically increased demand for gold, lead to the international gold higher. Gradually Market gold as a hedge emotion rising, the market like again adore hedge varieties. By the European debt crisis drag, t
6、he euro remains weak, the euro holder also heavy selling bought dollars, lead to euro dollar index concussion go up. As the crisis continues to expand, the European Union and the international monetary fund, and the aid program launched the fed to restart quantitative looser monetary policy QE2, mak
7、ing the dollar index in continuous go high began gradually to the downside. And the dollar index disorder, it reflects the wide fluctuations in international instability in financial markets. By the end of 2009, the financial crisis storm are not completely dispersed, and a massive sovereign debt cr
8、isis appeared on the stage. Including Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Spain and other countries successively appeared the serious fiscal deficits and public debt collapse, the European Unions stability and growth pact cordon also non-existing, eurozone 7500 million blood transfusion plan didnt let
9、 the eurozone immediately, countries face great back the sovereignty of credit risk. Financial crisis left hidden trouble, make the eurozone nearly two years of economic growth, but also still lack of social benefits must be maintained high welfare, while eurozone economic development and uneven, ca
10、use financial burden is very heavy. The eurozone internal system makes its members with monetary policy tools to lack, regulating macro economic expansion of fiscal expenditure has the tendency of endogenous, plus no strict constraint mechanism and punishment mechanism, causing it to get worse. The
11、European Union , if you want to go out of difficult position, and as soon as possible except adopt effective relief plan, but also to the whole economic system reform and work out the framework of unified fiscal policy institutional framework and strict constraint mechanism of punishment. The Europe
12、an sovereign debt crisis is essentially European economic integration system defect impacted by the financial crisis a total outbreaks. This paper the European debt crisis evolution briefly analysed and judgment, discussed the European debt crisis on the dollar index and the international trend of a
13、 series of gold produced effects. And through this crisis in our country government formulated for macroeconomic policies and adjust the industrial structure plays a certain role when the warning, and can prevent the international speculative capital on our countrys economic impact. KEYWORDS: sovere
14、ign debt crisis credit risks wide fluctuations system defect 目 录第一章 绪论11.1研究背景11.2 研究意义31.3 研究内容4第二章 欧洲债务危机的成因及影响分析82.1欧债危机的形成原因82.1.1经济增长的放缓和社会福利居高不下82.1.2欧盟实行单一的调控经济政策变量82.1.3欧盟各成员国经济发展不均衡82.1.4美国次贷危机后财政支出的持续扩大92.2欧债危机的负面影响102.2.1欧债危机导致人民币升值102.2.2欧债危机影响中国对欧洲国家出口102.2.3欧债危机导致投机资本流入增加10第三章 欧债危机对美元指
15、数及国际金价的影响分析113.1欧债危机对于美元指数的影响分析113.2欧债危机对国际金价的影响分析153.3 美元指数对国际金价的影响分析18第四章 研究结论及对策建议204.1研究结论204.1.1美元指数的走强是外因作用的结果204.1.2国际金价的走高反映了复苏的不确定性204.1.3美元指数和国际金价有时存在正相关性214.2 对策建议214.2.1加快经济增长方式转变和经济结构调整224.2.2加强跨境资金流动监测和相关预案研究224.2.3进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制23第五章 变革与展望24主要参考文献、资料31上海理工大学本科生毕业设计（论文） 第一章 绪论1.1研究背景20
16、09年底,世界著名的三大评级机构(惠誉、穆迪、标普)先后调低了对希腊的主权信用评级,这一突发举动引起了全球对于希腊债务危机的关注。2009年希腊财政赤字占GDP的比重12.7%,政府公共债务占GDP的比例达到113%,这个数据大大超过欧盟稳定与增长公约的警戒线,各国财政赤字和公共债务占GDP的比例分别不能超过3%和60%的上限。希腊仅仅是这场危机的开始,随后葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰及西班牙等国也陷入此场危机中,欧债危机风暴愈演愈烈。2010年5月10日,欧盟成员国制定一项7500亿欧元的救助计划,以帮助可能陷入债务危机的欧元区成员国,救助计划由三部分资金组成:第一部分由欧盟委员会从金融市场上筹集60
