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1、城市住宅市场比较法调整因子量化问题研究河北工业大学博士学位论文城市住宅市场比较法调整因子量化问题研究姓名：崔武文申请学位级别：博士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：陈立文20090501河北工业大学博士学位论文 城市住宅市场比较法调整因子量化问题研究 摘 要 城市住宅价格是一个敏感的社会经济问题。无论对政府还是对城市居民而言，城市住宅都是重要的财富。准确评估城市住宅的价格，对于以住宅价格为基础的税收、抵押贷款中维护借款人的正当权益、履行房地产估价行业为金融信贷机构控制风险的社会职责等方面均有重要意义。随着中国住宅市场化进程的不断深入，与城市住宅有关的交易活动日益增多。因此，如何发展房地产价格理论与
2、估价理论，建立科学、高效的城市房地产估价方法，特别是针对城市住宅的市场比较估价法，是房地产估价行业面临的重要课题。中国国家住房与城乡建设部、中国房地产估价师与房地产经纪人学会、天津市房地产管理部门、天津市房地产估价师学会等都在多种场合发出呼吁并鼓励对这一难题进行重点公关。论文就是在这种背景下选题、开题并开展研究的。 目前困扰市场比较法在城市住宅估价中准确应用的主要有三大难题，即可比实例的选取问题、住宅自然属性情况的价格修正问题、综合比准价格的求取问题。三个问题相互关联又共同影响估价结果的准确性，其中又以第二个问题为重点与难点。论文以上述三大难题为研究内容，以构建适合中国城市住宅的市场比较法调整
3、因子量化模型解决以上问题为研究目标。力求为我国房地产行业提供具有较高可信度与较高操作性的市场定价新思路，力求为我国房地产评估行业提供一套旨在提高房地产市场比较法精度，降低作业成本，提高估价效率的城市住宅估价新模型，论文研究目标明确、有的放矢。 论文采用规范分析与实证研究相结合，定性分析与定量分析相结合的研究方法。规范分析为问题的提出、问题的解决(主要是模型的构建)、问题答案(研究结论)的分析提供理论基础；实证分析方法是通过翔实的数据资料对模型进行估计与检验，有助于从现象中把握事物运动发展的规律，并形成有关经济新理论。定性分析主要是从事物的本质属性来认识和把握城市住宅的价格；定量分析则是从城市住
4、宅自然属性量化指标上认识和把握城市住宅的价格，使人们能更准确的认识城市住宅的本质。论文研究中，先采用定性分析，对城市住宅自然属性与价格的关系进行分析研究，以便为城市住宅自然属性价格的定量分析提供方向性指导；然后进行定量分析，以期确定城市住宅自然属性价格研究成果；最后在 I城市住宅市场比较法调整因子量化问题研究 严格定量研究的基础上，采用定性分析方法分析定量研究的成果。 论文的主要研究内容和研究成果包括以下内容： (1)构建了城市住宅自然属性价格模型并进行了实证研究。 (2)构建了城市住宅市场比较法估价模型并进行了实证研究。 (3)通过对天津市中心城区住宅的实证研究得出了天津市中心城区住宅的自然
5、属性价格。 (4)通过对天津市中心城区住宅细分市场的研究，得出关于行政区划的天津市中心城区住宅细分市场存在的结论。 最后，论文提出对该问题进一步研究的展望及在今后研究中应该注意的问题，以及为了使论文研究成果推广使用，更好的为城市住宅估价业务服务，城市房地产管理部门及行业学会应该做的准备工作。 关键词：城市住宅价格；住宅自然属性；属性价格；市场比较估价；调整因子；正则化策略 II 河北工业大学博士学位论文 THE QUANTIFICATION STUDY ON ADJUSTMENT FACTOR IN URBAN HOUSING MARKET COMPARISION ABSTRACT The u
6、rban housing price is a sensitive socio-economic question. The urban housing is the important wealth for the government or the urban residents, so that appraising the urban housing price accurately has the significance, regarding of taking the housing price as the tax foundation, safeguarding the le
7、gitimate rights and interests of the borrower in the mortgage loan, performing real estate appraisal industry social duties to control the risk for finance credit institutions, etc. With Chinese market-oriented process development, transaction activities related to the urban house grows in number da
8、y by day, therefore, how to develop the real estate price theory and the appraisal theory, establishing scientific, effective urban real estate appraisal method, specially aiming at the urban housing market comparison is the industry issues that the real estate appraisal industry faces. MOHURD, Chin
9、a institute of real estate appraisers and gents, Tianjin real estate management, Tianjin real estate appraisers and so send out appeals and encourage to resolve the difficult problem on many occasions. Thesis topic is determined and the research is carried out under this situation. At present, there
10、 main three problems that puzzle market comparison approach in the urban housing price appraisal, they are the selection of comparable examples, the determination of the attribute prices, the determination of the comprehensive price. Three problems are interrelated and together affect the accuracy o
11、f the valuation results, the key and difficult point focusing on the second question. The paper take the above three difficult problems as the research content, take constructing adjustment factor quantification model suiting to the China urban housing market to solve the above problem as the resear
12、ch central goal. The paper strives to provide new ideas of housing price with high reliability and high operability and seeks to provide a new comparative method model with the high accuracy, low cost and high efficiency for real estate industry. The paper research is clear and targeted. The paper t
13、akes the research methods that normative analysis and empirical research combine each other, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis combine each other. The normative analysis provides the theoretical basis for the question proposed, the question solution (mainly model construction), the anal
14、ysis of the answer (research conclusion). The empirical research method carries on the estimation and the examination through the full and accurate data III城市住宅市场比较法调整因子量化问题研究 for the model. It is helpful to grasp the movement rule from the phenomenon and form the economical new theory. The qualitat
15、ive analysis is the method that essential attribute of urban housing price is discussed by. The quantitative analysis enables the people more precise understanding about urban housing price essence from attribute quality target. The paper, firstly, by the qualitative analysis, describes the relation
16、ship between attribute quality and prices, in order to provide the directive instruction for quantitative analysis of urban housing attribute quality price. Then, by the quantitative analysis, research results of the urban housing attribute prices is determined. Finally, by the qualitative analysis, research results of quantitative analysis is discussed and tested on the strict base of quantitative investigation. Paper main rese
