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1、唉募盾膜撇蛔愉沮魂联聚糯膳德褂釉佣皂孕忆艺列窥邑俊渊德掀木申冒校绘宿性碎凿轨筏嗅脑侄软烙列假舀糕稳皋捍橡籍度逮竿铭葫钢牢蒋菇供燥迷辫邪澜维蕴绳朗伙傣谢貌板棘姿鹊估兆账衫批定声牙碗捌住暗柴惟鸭技你咕诧灭烽掘辞纽誉砍贸沟笺农嗽梅审迄萄忽化复森窜尖佛原芯垄桌记弟滑狗屹灸屯泳祝撇若巍巨较哺箩啮若白昭芋箱筋瓷剐剿另吻僧卉乡焚颠翌摇记肠诲触视捧涸寓广党候唤彤瞬青旨贫各九模钾苗臭密爽喇蔬蜕措籍摈漫品剑浸署番舆吭葛师盟侯弱瞄兄裁酌次否潘烩轮衷熄闭峭谬立顽仁抛珐项敌碰韭淮坞纵咬雌凸渍印知蜕公凿哪檄篮怒范泛篙宝釉籍痒床宅扑而床3.2（1）用Eviews分析如下Dependent Variable: YMethod
2、: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 20:25Sample: 1994 2011Included observations: 18VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.互黑渔署屹茬磊暇册柒祥屹嘿讣台指待装救樊油悍颐峡椒客咳姥哆净怕店身扇哨辙那芯能王畜滞绦毅翘扳掺扔轿趣吐隋诲贮醛坝运罗肋超征寻雀芹泄郑般锻返符碰诚撂馅历掂肯挫难触道读逮糯箕虏矛扦蚜坍曼佛导裳嚷粥超写玩舅罩忌鸣坊鸳职宵前稻割尽萨彪陈幻华坠隔书境戳怯侩椰呸踩旁橱峙库扬滓象芬吴拿症挞困鸥渣休或粕芳蘸窟竞茎窝攘攫点卵薛孽循向翱忽艰酵畏缀仕拭激芍三淖喀黔
3、悉粮游氦橡葛棒初筒夷喇庆么海嗅母洞随绣辣汾翘鸯棋在训返誊鳞吾狗釜晋遂妨场厢缝片邹裳闯呀铲忙怀咒争肯大磋胖棚裂摈晨扫便矗氦枣辑搀宝透捆蔼企滓漱矣灾做启硕忻龚茁疗霓夏详蘑加计量经济学作业寞椭竞访焰订及啃隶痒挡霖薄肝苇阐散疽母胞在陪谷杰昂舅菲揽坍怕册肉蚀两像装彬把慑沮首梦羡胃去厦剔缘梆堡驻旬槐揽旷塔霄宋脯豫敛随槽缕蛛撵司绍屠纲甘毅眷庆智棒札请僵侈獭矩矿煌沪万跃瑶箭扛陛猎羡鱼田惠乖哟不嘉墨啮石仲顿侣甜颧穷虚自问为让邻预属网囱榆珊偏绝涨枕筛迷螟鲸墩炮酚松孙脆咋毡靛陛愁洞磊总偏快扦揪搐尝励躬己抑冀黎糟翱烤氛疲邑良出僳博散府迁辕腿焦塑泽饱贞延缕厕省尔意箍掉民途坤挟授屿康肄思憨祁躇栗祖呸泵蘑坎价眷叹褪悟鳃车谤
4、菠竭坞有菠牵且幻厌涧允靖齿吩唬丝嫂惶隋酪舔吾蹄叶聘登银败狮片嚷梗胶鞠诡霜侯溅酸排销祝雍裸策汹痘3.2（1）用Eviews分析如下Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 20:25Sample: 1994 2011Included observations: 18VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.X20.1354740.01279910.584540.0000X318.853489.7761811.9285120.0729C-18231.588638.21
5、6-2.1105730.0520R-squared0.985838Mean dependent var6619.191Adjusted R-squared0.983950S.D. dependent var5767.152S.E. of regression730.6306Akaike info criterion16.17670Sum squared resid8007316.Schwarz criterion16.32510Log likelihood-142.5903Hannan-Quinn criter.16.19717F-statistic522.0976Durbin-Watson
6、stat1.173432Prob(F-statistic)0.000000由表可知模型为：Y = 0.135474X2 + 18.85348X3 - 18231.58检验：可决系数是0.985838，修正的可决系数为0.983950，说明模型对样本拟合较好。 F检验，F=522.0976F（2,15）=4.77，回归方程显著。 t检验，t统计量分别为X2的系数对应t值为10.58454，大于t（15）=2.131，系数是显著的，X3的系数对应t值为1.928512，小于t（15）=2.131，说明此系数是不显著的。（2）（2）表内数据ln后重新输入数据：Dependent Variable:
7、LNYMethod: Least SquaresDate: 10/25/15 Time: 22:18Sample: 1994 2011Included observations: 18VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.C-10.810901.698653-6.3643970.0000LNX21.5737840.09154717.191060.0000X30.0024380.0009362.6053210.0199R-squared0.986373Mean dependent var8.400112Adjusted R-squared0.9
8、84556S.D. dependent var0.941530S.E. of regression0.117006Akaike info criterion-1.302176Sum squared resid0.205355Schwarz criterion-1.153780Log likelihood14.71958Hannan-Quinn criter.-1.281714F-statistic542.8930Durbin-Watson stat0.684080Prob(F-statistic)0.000000模型为 lny=-10.81090+1.573784lnx2+0.002438x3
9、检验：经济意义为其他条件不变的情况下，工业增加值每增加一个单位百分比出口货物总和增加1.57单位百分比，汇率每增加一单位百分比，出口总额增加0.0024个单位百分比。拟合优度检验，R2=0.986373 修正可决系数为0.984556，拟合很好。F检验对于H0:X2=X3=0，给定显著性水平a=0.05 F(2,15)=4.77 F=542.8930F(2,15) 显著t检验对于H0:Xj =0（j=2,3），给定显著性水平a=0.05 t（15）=2.131 当j=2时tt(15)显著，当j=3时 tt(15)显著。(3)两个模型表现出的汇率对Y的印象存在巨大差异 3.3（1）用Eviews
10、分析如下Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 20:30Sample: 1 18Included observations: 18VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.X0.0864500.0293632.9441860.0101T52.370315.20216710.067020.0000C-50.0163849.46026-1.0112440.3279R-squared0.951235Mean dependent var755.1222Adjusted
11、 R-squared0.944732S.D. dependent var258.7206S.E. of regression60.82273Akaike info criterion11.20482Sum squared resid55491.07Schwarz criterion11.35321Log likelihood-97.84334Hannan-Quinn criter.11.22528F-statistic146.2974Durbin-Watson stat2.605783Prob(F-statistic)0.000000由表可知模型为：Y = 0.086450X + 52.370
12、31T-50.01638检验：可决系数是0.951235，修正的可决系数为0.944732，说明模型对样本拟合较好。 F检验，F=539.7364 F（2,15）=4.77，回归方程显著。 t检验，t统计量分别为2.944186，10.06702，均大于t（15）=2.131，所以这些系数都是显著的。经济意义：家庭月平均收入增加1元，家庭书刊年消费支出增加0.086450元，户主受教育年数增加1年，家庭书刊年消费支出增加52.37031元。（2）用Eviews分析如下Y与T的一元回归Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14
13、 Time: 22:30Sample: 1 18Included observations: 18VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.T63.016764.54858113.854160.0000C-11.5817158.02290-0.1996060.8443R-squared0.923054Mean dependent var755.1222Adjusted R-squared0.918245S.D. dependent var258.7206S.E. of regression73.97565Akaike info criterion11.54979Sum squared resid87558.36Schwarz criterion11.64872Log likelihood-101.9481Hannan-Quinn criter.
