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1、摘要近年来，随着社会经济的高速发展，基础设施越来越完善。与此同时，地质灾害给人民生命财产安全及各类设施造成的破坏越来越严重。在各类地质灾害中，滑坡的发生频率及危害程度均排名前列。滑坡灾害的发生机理与地震相似，具有突发性、难预报性、紧急性、破坏性、连锁性、社会性、多样性和不可抗拒性等特点。滑坡灾害危害巨大而想要准确地预测又较为困难，灾后及时有效地做好应急处置是实现减灾和挽救人民生命财产安全的关键。在灾后应急处置工程中，对灾害危险性和救援难易度的把握是重中之重。现有的研究对滑坡灾害的评估大多侧重于空间信息，本研究将引入人文及地理信息，提出一套滑坡灾害救援难易度的评价指标，并通过云模型将结果通过自然
2、语言呈现，以供没有地学专业知识的相关人员快速了解滑坡的救援难易程度。主要研究工作如下：(1)对已有文献进行分析，结合近年发生的历次滑坡数据，分析、归纳、总结滑坡评价指标，融合空间、人文、地理信息，形成一套完整可用的滑坡评价指标。通过基于博弈论的组合赋权法对主观与客观权重计算方法进行结合，综合计算各指标在滑坡救援难易度评价中所占的权重。(2)通过云变换从定量滑坡历史数据中提取救援难易度的定性概念，该方法充分考虑了概念之间的亦此亦彼性，完成了“定量到定性”、“数据到知识”的转换。云变换充分考虑了实际数据分布情况，解决了基于专家评价方法的缺点。通过云变换所获取的各定性概念的云数字特征也是综合评价滑坡
3、救援难易度的基础。(3)通过各救援难易度云模型特征，利用正向云发生器，建立救援难易度评估标准云，结合各指标权重对滑坡救援难易度进行综合评估。利用一次真实滑坡数据及滑坡历史数据对模型的准确性、可用性进行分析。关键词：滑坡救援；云模型；云变换；组合赋权AbstractIn recent years, with the rapid development of Chinas economy, the damage caused by geological disasters to peoples lives and property and infrastructure has become mor
4、e and more serious. Among all kinds of geological disasters, the degree of hazard of landslides ranks high. It is similar to earthquakes, mainly developed in mountainous areas. Like other natural disasters, it is sudden, difficult to predict, urgent, destructive, chain, and social. diversity and irr
5、esistibility.Landslide hazards are huge and it is difficult to accurately predict them. It is the key to realizing disaster reduction and saving peoples lives and property by timely and effective emergency response. In the post-disaster emergency response project, the grasp of disaster risk and resc
6、ue difficulty is the top priority. The existing researches on landslide disasters mostly focus on spatial information. This study will introduce humanities and geographic information, propose a set of evaluation indicators for landslide disaster rescue difficulty, and present the results in natural
7、language through cloud models. Non-professionals without geoscientific knowledge quickly understand the ease of rescue of landslides. The main research work is as follows:(1) Analyze the existing literature, combine the previous landslide data, analyze, summarize and summarize the landslide evaluati
8、on indicators to form a complete set of available landslide evaluation indicators. Through the combined weighting method based on game theory, the results obtained by subjective analytic hierarchy process and objective entropy weight method are integrated, and the weights of each index in the evalua
9、tion of landslide rescue difficulty are comprehensively calculated.(2) Extracting the qualitative concept of landslide rescue difficulty from the historical data of quantitative landslide by cloud transformation, this method fully considers the concept of the same, and completes the “quantitative to
10、 qualitative” and “data to knowledge” Conversion. It solves the shortcomings of the traditional expert evaluation method without considering the actual data distribution. The digital characteristics of the cloud model of each qualitative concept extracted by cloud transformation are also the basis f
11、or comprehensive evaluation of the difficulty of landslide rescue.(3) Through the characteristics of each rescue difficulty cloud model, using the forward cloud generator to establish a standard cloud of rescue difficulty assessment, combined with the weight of each index to comprehensively evaluate
12、 the difficulty of landslide rescue. The accuracy and usability of the model were analyzed using real landslide data.Key Words: Landslide rescue;Cloud Model;Cloud transformation; Combination Weighting目录摘要IAbstractII第1章 绪论11.1 本论文研究的目的和意义11.2 国内外研究现状及发展趋势31.2.1 地质灾害危险性评价研究现状31.2.2 云模型研究现状51.3 论文主要研究内
13、容71.4 论文组织结构8第2章 相关理论概述92.1 滑坡灾害理论92.1.1 滑坡灾害发生条件92.1.2 滑坡形态特征112.1.3 滑坡活动特性122.2 滑坡体空间信息提取122.2.1 LiDAR数据获取132.2.2 点云滤波142.2.3 DEM高程数据获取162.3 云理论172.3.1 云的定义及性质172.3.2 云发生器192.3.3 云变换212.3.4 云综合222.4 本章小结24第3章 基于云模型的滑坡救援等级评估模型253.1 滑坡救援难易度综合评估方法253.1.1 评估流程设计253.1.2评估结果方法263.2 滑坡灾害救援难易度评价指标设计及各指标云数
14、字特征计算263.2.1 指标体系建立的原则263.2.2 指标的选择263.2.3 指标标准云参数的确定283.3 滑坡救援难易度评价指标权重的确定方法313.3.1 利用层次分析法计算权重313.3.2 利用熵权法计算客观权重333.3.3 基于博弈论的改进组合赋权343.4 本章小结35第4章 实验结果及分析374.1 实验设计374.1.1 技术路线图374.1.2 实验数据集384.2 滑坡救援等级标准云的生成384.2.1 评价指标标准云参数的确定384.2.2 指标权重的确定424.2.3 标准云图的生成444.3 真实数据验证474.3.1数据采集474.2.2数据处理474.
15、2.3结果计算504.4 本章小结52结论53参考文献54致谢58第1章 绪论1.1 本论文研究的目的和意义随着社会经济的高速发展，人类的活动空间持续扩大，全人类面临着人口、资源、环境几大问题1。我国地大物博，自然环境复杂多样，不同区域气候差异较大。在960万平方公里的国土面积中，有七成左右是山地。与此同时，作为还在高速积聚能量的发展中国家，我国在大规模的资源开发和工程建设中，或多或少地忽视了环境保护，在一定程度上加剧了地质灾害的发生。距统计，我国发生地质灾害的次数与前几年相比有所上升，且灾害的分布较为广泛。在世界范围内，我国地质灾害发生的数量与伤亡程度均排名前列 2。从表1.13可以看出，近年来，山体滑坡，崩塌，泥石流，地面塌陷，地裂缝和地面沉降等地质灾害发生频率总体来说居于高位，对人民群众的生命财产安全造成了严重的损害。表1.1 2004-2018年中国地质灾害统计表年份地质灾害数量滑坡崩塌泥石流其他受灾人数经济损失（亿元）2004875572181771324-20.520051775193597654566172102136.520061028148852313160417704135344
