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1、_HOW TO MAKE A DECISIONThomas L. SaatyUniversity of PittsburghSaatyvms.cis.pitt.edu1. IntroductionThe Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for decision making uses objective mathematics to process the inescapably subjective and personal preferences of an individual or a group in making a decision. With
2、the AHP and its generalization, the Analytic Network Process (ANP), one constructs hierarchies or feedback networks, then makes judgments or performs measurements on pairs of elements with respect to a controlling element to derive ratio scales that are then synthesized throughout the structure to s
3、elect the best alternative.Nearly all of us, in one way or another, have been brought up to believe that clear-headed logical thinking is our only sure way to face and solve problems. We also believe that our feelings and our judgments must be subjected to the acid test of deductive thinking. But ex
4、perience suggests that deductive thinking is not natural. Indeed, we have to practice, and for a long time, before we can do it well. Since complex problems usually have many related factors, traditional logical thinking leads to sequences of ideas that are so tangled that their interconnections are
5、 not readily discerned. We note that people have been making decisions as long as they have been around and did not need mathematics and technology to do it well. How can we capture what people do naturally with our mathematics of today? The lack of a coherent procedure to make decisions is especial
6、ly troublesome when our intuition alone cannot help us to determine which of several options is the most desirable, or the least objectionable, and neither logic nor intuition are of help. Therefore, we need a way to determine which objective outweighs another, both in the near and long terms. Since
7、 we are concerned with real-life problems we must recognize the necessity for tradeoffs to best serve the common interest. Therefore, this process should also allow for consensus building and compromise.Individual knowledge and experience are inadequate in making decisions concerning the welfare and
8、 quality of life for a group. Participation and debate are needed both among individuals and between the groups affected. Here two aspects of group decision making have to be considered. The first is a rather minor complication, namely, the discussion and exchange within the group to reach some kind
9、 of consensus on the given problem. The second is of much greater difficulty. The holistic nature of the given problem necessitates that it be divided into smaller subject-matter areas within which different groups of experts determine how each area affects the total problem. A large and complex pro
10、blem can rarely be decomposed simply into a number of smaller problems whose solutions can be combined into an overall answer. If this process is successful, one can then reconstruct the initial question and review the proposed solutions. A last and often crucial disadvantage of many traditional dec
11、ision-making methods is that they require specialized expertise to design the appropriate structure and then to embed the decision-making process in it.A decision-making approach should have the following characteristics: be simple in construct, be adaptable to both groups and individuals, be natura
12、l to our intuition and general thinking, encourage compromise and consensus building, and not require inordinate specialization to master and communicate.In addition, the details of the processes leading up to the decision-making process should be easy to review. At the core of the problems that our
13、 method addresses is the need to assess the benefits, the costs, and the risks of the proposed solutions. We must answer such questions as the following: Which consequences weigh more heavily than others? Which aims are more important than others? What is likely to take place? What should we plan fo
14、r and how do we bring it about? These and other questions demand a multicriteria logic. It has been demonstrated over and over by practitioners who use the theory discussed in this paper, that multicriteria logic gives different and often better answers to these questions than ordinary logic and doe
15、s it efficiently. To make a decision one needs various kinds of knowledge, information, and technical data. These concern: details about the problem for which a decision is needed, the people or actors involved, their objectives and policies, the influences affecting the outcomes, and, the time hori
16、zons, scenarios, and constraints.The set of potential outcomes and the alternatives from which to choose are the essence of decision making. In laying out the framework for making a decision, one needs to sort the elements into groupings or clusters that have similar influences or effects. One must also arrange them in some rational order to trace the outcome of these influences. Bri
