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1、广告模型研究amon 本专项研究的重点不在于对浩繁的广告手段/措施的操作一一进行详尽论述，而在于提供制定、实行、评估促销方略的思路。现代市场营销不仅规定公司发展适销对路的产品，制定吸引顾客的价格，改善物流，以使目的顾客易于获取她们所需要的产品/服务；并且更规定公司塑造/控制其市场/品牌形象，设计并传播涉及公司文化理念、产品外观、特色、购买条件、功能效用等在内的多种信息，即进行促销与沟通活动。促销即增进销售。通过多种媒介和手段，在生产者和消费者之间进行信息沟通，使消费者能理解公司和理解公司的产品。促销的本质不是推销产品，而是信息沟通。图1 老式的促销形式如上图，促销方略研究对象老式上涉及广告、销
2、售增进、人员推销、公共关系等4块。因此，促销的决策可分为三项：如何将4种促销方式进行最佳组合，或既定的促销费用如何在4种促销方式上进行分派，以获得最大的促销效果；如何选择促销方式及具体的促销手段或媒介；如何测度多种促销方案特别是广告的效果。在具体简介以上本专项研究的任务，即第三项任务之前，对促销及其有关实行框架进行事先理解，不无必要。如下即在此基本上进行进一步进一步的专项研究。第四部分广告模型Aggregate Advertising Models“Aggregate advertising models relate product sales to advertising spending
3、 for a market as a whole.”内容可分为两大类：Advertising Response Models（ARM）和Advertising Decision Models（ADM）。 决策：ADM研究ADM的研究内容重要涉及广告预算/支出（budget/expenditure）决策和媒体选择决策。一方面，广告支出决策重要关注：年度预算annual budgets；地理分布geographic allocation；时间分布allocation over time。这一领域的研究常常与G. Telser在1964年刊登的Advertising and Competition密
4、不可分。该文章是广告与竞争方面研究的起点。其重要发现是“广告与竞争之间的负有关关系没有得到实证的支持”。其后，支持与辩驳的文章、证据不断涌现，争论也不断。但在这一领域否认的意见占优。与之有关，Kaldor在1950年刊登，对“广告支出与否过多”进行了讨论，同样导致了对广告支出研究的兴起。广告支出与否过多重要取决于广告信息的市场需求、这些信息定价和发布的途径以及最后产品市场的环境。更全面的论述，请参阅William S. Comanor & Thomas A. Wilson在1979年刊登的综述性文章The effect of Advertising on Competition: A Surv
5、ey。这篇文章同步也是（ARM中的）Interaction的代表性文章。媒体选择决策方面，Little（1979）列举了重要媒体选择模型（Media Selection Models）： Little & Lodish（1969），A Media Planning Calculus Gensch（1969），A Computer Simulation Model for Selecting Advertising Schedules Zufryden（1973），Media Scheduling: a Stochastic Dynamic Model Approach Starr（1978），
6、OR in Marketing: a Case of Failure and Renewal总体而言，ADM方面的研究在以上中文报告中已得到体现，而限于时间和精力，本小组未对英文文献的回忆进行收集整顿。故，如下重点论述ARM方面的研究。 测度：ARM研究在ARM方面，1977年，Sethi刊登了综述文章Dynamic Optimal Control Models in Advertising：A Survey，对这些模型的最优效果进行了初步梳理和调查研究。更为完整而进一步的研究归功于Little在此领域的长期关注。1979年，John D.C. Little刊登了里程碑式的文章Aggregat
7、e Advertising Models ：The State of the Art。这篇典型文章的写作背景是，以往研究对ignorance of advertising response phenomena（对广告反馈现象的忽视），inability to make good measures（测量效果不佳），lack of a theory to organize existing knowledge缺少一种系统的理论来综合已有研究成果。不仅如此，Little还特别指出，ARM方面的矛盾遍及。为此，Little对已有的模型进行了回忆、梳理。1研究主题与重要结论在Little看来，ARM应有
8、助于：track and evaluate advertising performance（追溯和评价广告效果），diagnose market changes （诊断市场变化） and incorporation into decision models （与决策模型的融合）。为此她对论战的三个领域（的模型）进行了总结： Shape 是指“the shape of a curve showing sales response to advertising under steady state conditions”。它一般需要回答： Is such a relationship betwee
9、n sales rate vs. advertising rate linear? What are sales with zero advertising? Is response S-shaped? Do large amounts of advertising depress sales? Dynamics也涉及4个核心问题： How fast do sales respond when advertising is increased? How fast do sales decay when advertising is decreased? Does hysteresis ever
10、 exist? How does advertising effectiveness change with time?(and how can we model it?) Interaction重要研究： Is it better to advertising where sales are strong or weak? Are advertising effects additive with other marketing variables (e.g., price, promotion, and competitive actions,) or multiplicative, or
11、 do the interact in more complicated ways?事实上，绝大多数的ARM都可归入以上问题范畴。或者说，这些模型重要针对或涵盖的是如下广告现象：1. sales responding upward and downward at different rates 2. steady state response can be concave or S-shaped and can have positive sales at zero ad3. sales affected by competitive advertising4. advertising dol
12、lar effectiveness that can change over timeLittle对以上领域模型的实证进行了总结，得出了如下结论最重要的5个现象：“The empirical evidence suggests that at least the following phenomena should be considered in building dynamic models of advertising response：1. Sales respond dynamically upward and down ward to increases and decreases
13、 of advertising and frequently do so at different rates2. Steady-state response can be concave or S-shaped and will often have positive sales at zero advertising3. Competitive advertising affects sales4. The dollar effectiveness of advertising can change over time as the result of changes in media，c
14、opy，and other factors5. Products sometimes respond to increased advertising with a sales increase that falls off even as advertising is held constantAll of these effects hold implications for managerial actionObviously other important phenomena also exist：some have been discussed，and others remain t
15、o be discovered”2典型模型对于过去发展起来的模型，Little写道，“researchers have been adding marketing models to the literature like grains of sand to the beachBy now the pile，if not a dune，is at least a sand castle”简而言之，沙砾无数，乃至成滩。其中，明显不同的构建模型的两个老式共存于文献中： Priori a priori draws heavily on intuition，although its practitio
16、ners are not oblivious to data，the model building goal is to postulate a general structure，not describe a specific application statistical or Econometric usually starts from a specific data base，e.g.，time series of sales or share and advertising此外，某些初期和越来越多的新研究将两者结合起来：Mixed starts with rather more complicate
