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1、摘要我国信息制造业上市公司成长性分析及实证研究摘 要上市公司的成长性是描述该上市企业一定时期内业绩发展、变化的一种状态，合理进行成长性评价，找到合适的预测方法，正确预测上市公司未来的成长性，无论对投资者、债权人还是上市公司本身而言，都具有非常重要的意义。本文以在公司成长上比较有代表性的信息制造业上市公司2005-2007年3年数据为研究样本，依据成长特性将其划分为三类，分别是成长性公司、一般公司和ST公司，并选取包括短期偿债能力、长期偿债能力、营运能力、获利能力、发展能力、股东回报能力、现金实力在内的财务指标作为备选变量，通过因子分析法分别计算各个上市公司在各能力指标上的因子得分，然后利用Fi
2、sher多类线性判别分析法建立成长性评价模型，从而对信息制造业上市公司的成长情况作出分析和评价。经过实际数据的分析，得出以下结论：Fisher多类线性判定分析方法能够对我国信息制造业上市公司的成长性进行有效评价；信息制造业上市公司的股票回报能力在一定程度上反映了它们的成长能力；一般公司的获利能力和发展能力与成长性公司没有显著区别；成长性的公司其各个财务指标能力的发展较为均衡，整体运行情况良好，它们在营运能力方面与其它公司有着显著区别。关键词：信息制造业，成长性，判别分析IANALYSIS AND EMPIRICAL STUDY ON GROWTH OF DOMESTIC LISTED COMP
3、ANIES IN INFORMATION MANUFACTURING SECTORABSTRACTThe growth of listed companies is to describe the development in performance of listed companies in a certain period of time. Reasonably assess the growth, finding the suitable forecasting method and correctly predicting the growth of listed companies
4、 in the future, no matter for the investors，creditors or the listed companies, are very important.The dissertation analyses the data of listed companies in information manufacturing sector, using the 2005-2007s date. Based on the growth indexes the companies are divided into three categories: growth
5、ing company, common company and ST company. Seven kinds of financial indexes are selected, including short-term payment ability, long-term payment ability, operating capacity, profitability, development capacity, shareholders profitability and cash capacity. And factor analysis are used in each kind
6、 of financial index to obtain factor scores. Then Fisher multiple discriminant analysis are used to establish growth assessment model of listed companies in information manufacturing sector.After the analysis of actual data, the conclusions are as follow: Fisher multiple discriminant analysis is val
7、id to analyse the growth of listed companies in information manufacturing sector; the shareholders profitability of companies in this sector reflects their growth in a certain extent; There is no significant difference between common companies and growthing companies for their profitability and deve
8、lopment capacity; growthing companies have a good performance in all kinds of financial indexes and better operating capacity than common companies.KEY WORDS：information manufacturing sector, growth, discriminant analysisVII目录目 录第一章 绪论11.1研究背景11.2研究意义11.3研究思路21.4研究框架21.5研究方法31.6本文的创新点4第二章 文献综述52.1成长
9、理论的发展52.2成长性的定义62.3评价指标体系的建立72.4计量方法的选择12第三章 上市公司成长性评价方法153.1因子分析法153.1.1因子分析法的基本思想153.1.2因子分析法的原理与计算步骤163.2成长性评价方法比较173.2.1判别分析173.2.2 Logistic回归183.2.3决策树183.2.4人工神经网络183.2.5分类方法的比较19第四章 我国信息制造业的发展概状224.1信息制造业已成为高速增长的高技术产业的典型代表224.2信息制造业的劳动生产率254.3信息制造业出口情况254.4小结26第五章 我国信息制造业成长性实证分析275.1研究工具275.2
10、样本选择275.3成长性的判定285.4变量选取285.4.1指标选取的原则285.4.2评价指标的选取305.4.3数据预处理335.5财务指标的整合345.6我国信息制造业上市公司成长性评价模型构建405.7我国信息制造业上市公司成长性分析45第六章 结论和建议476.1 结论476.2 建议476.3 研究局限性48参考文献50附录53致谢55研究成果及发表的学术论文56目录ContentsChapter 1 Introduction11.1 Background11.2 Significance11.3 Research ideas21.4 Framework21.5 Methods3
11、1.6 Innovation4Chapter 2 Literature review52.1 The development of growth theory52.2 The definition of growth62.3 The establishment of evaluation index syste72.4 The choice of measurement methods12Chapter 3 The evaluation methods of listed companies growth153.1 Factor analysis153.1.1 The basic idea o
12、f factor analysis153.1.2 The principle and calculation steps of factor analysis163.2 The comparison of growth evaluation methods173.2.1 Discriminant analysis173.2.2 Logistic regression183.2.3 Decision tree183.2.4 Artificial neural network183.2.5 The comparison of classification methods19Chapter 4 Th
13、e development status of domestic information manufacturing sector224.1 Domestic information manufacturing sector has been the representative of domestic high-tech sector growing rapidly224.2 The labor productivity of domestic information manufacturing sector254.3 The exports of domestic information
14、manufacturing sector254.4 Summary26Chapter 5 The empirical analysis of domestic information manufacturing sector275.1Tools275.2 Samples selected275.3 The discriminant of growth285.4 Variables selected285.4.1 The principle of selecting indexes285.4.2 Selecting evaluation indexes305.4.3 Data preproces
15、sing335.5 The intergration of financial indexes345.6 The establishment of assessment model of listed companies growth in domestic information manufacturing sector405.7 The growth analysis of listed companies in domestic information manufacturing sector45Chapter 6 Conclusion and countermeasure476.1 Conclusion476.2 Countermeasure476.3 Limitations48Reference literature50Appendix53Thanks55Research results and papers56第一章 绪论第一章 绪论1.1
