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1、填埋场大气环境影响的预测与评价根据环境影响评价技术导则大气环境（HJ2.2-2008）要求，三级评价可不进行大气环境影响预测工作，直接以估算模式的计算结果作为预测与分析依据。1.1估算模式及计算参数和选项（1）估算模式SCREEN3是AERMOD的估算模式，可计算点源、火炬源、面源和体源的最大地面浓度，以及下洗和岸边熏烟等特殊条件下的最矮的地面浓度。估算模式中嵌入了多种气象组合条件，不需要输入气象条件便可保守的估算某一污染源对环境空气质量的最大影响，即给出不同下风距离处的最大落地浓度。此模式主要用于确定评价工作等级，估算出的地面浓度大于等于采用AERMOD模式用全部的气象数据和地形数据计算出的
2、浓度。根据该工程所在位置及工程规模，综合考虑到评价等级、自然环境条件、环境敏感因素、主导风向、人群密集程度等，确定评价范围是以生活垃圾填埋场中心坐标为中心点，半径2.5km的圆形区域。根据该工程废气排放特征，确定本工程预测因子为填埋场产生的硫化氢、氨、颗粒物、甲硫醇、甲烷的面源污染及填埋废气燃烧产生的SO2、NO2的点源（火炬源）污染。（2）计算参数和选项计算参数见表7.3-1、7.3-2。该工程在选择气象数据和测算时，选择全部的稳定度和风速组合1；使用计算点的自动间距。表7.3-1 本工程估算模式面源选项和参数一览表污染物名称面源长(m)面源宽(m)面源高*(m)源强（g/s）H2S2671
3、13350.0006NH30.002甲硫醇0.00002颗粒物0.22CH40.19表7.3-2 本工程估算模式点源选项和参数一览表类别选项和参数选择源的类型A火炬源源强排放速率(g/s)SO20.06；NOx0.27源强的释放高度（m）36总的热释放率（Cal/s）3000城市/乡村估算模式R=乡村建设项目废气非正常排放源强情况见表7.3-3。表7.3-3 废气非正常排放源强情况一览表项目排放速率(g/s)排放量(t/a)排气筒高度排气筒内径废气CH49.55301.136m0.8mH2S0.0320.9996NH30.082.592甲硫醇0.0010.036261.2预测内容预测本工程垃圾
4、填埋场面源硫化氢、氨、颗粒物、甲硫醇、甲烷以及点源SO2、NOx在下风向浓度分布、最大落地浓度及其出现距离。1.3结果分析（1）有组织污染物排放预测结果本次大气环境质量影响预测主要针对填埋场处理工程实施后，污染物SO2、NOx在有风条件下向地面落地浓度值见表7.3-4。表7.3-4 污染物下风向落地浓度预测结果（有组织）距源中心下风向距离(m)SO2NOx下风向预测浓度(mg/m3)占标率( %)下风向预测浓度(mg/m3)占标率(%)1000.0010.2170.0051.8102000.0051.0160.0238.4673000.0050.9910.0228.2564000.0051.0
5、030.0238.3565000.0050.9450.0217.8746000.0040.8240.0196.8677000.0040.7600.0176.3338000.0040.7710.0176.4229000.0040.7500.0176.24810000.0040.7130.0165.94111000.0030.6670.0155.55612000.0030.6220.0145.18113000.0030.5800.0134.83314000.0030.5410.0124.50715000.0030.5050.0114.21116000.0020.4730.0113.93717000
6、.0020.4430.0103.68918000.0020.4150.0093.46219000.0020.3910.0093.25520000.0020.3680.0083.06621000.0020.3470.0082.89322000.0020.3280.0072.73423000.0020.3110.0072.58924000.0010.2950.0072.45525000.0010.2800.0062.332最大距离194m0.0051.0180.0238.481D10%未出现未出现由上表可知，项目污染物SO2下风向最大落地浓为0.005 mg/m3，浓度占标率为1.018%，D10
7、%未出现，最大落地浓度出现的距离为下风向194m；项目污染物NO2下风向最大落地浓为0.023 mg/m3，浓度占标率为8.481%，D10%未出现，最大落地浓度出现的距离为下风向194m。(2) 无组织污染物排放预测结果无组织污染物NH3、H2S、颗粒物、甲硫醇、甲烷在有风条件下向地面落地浓度值见表7.3-5。表7.3-5 NH3、H2S、颗粒物、甲硫醇、甲烷估算模式计算结果表(无组织)距源中心下风向距离(m)NH3H2S颗粒物甲硫醇CH4下风向预测浓度(mg/m3)占标率(%)下风向预测浓度(mg/m3)占标率(%)下风向预测浓度(mg/m3)占标率(%)下风向预测浓度(mg/m3)占标率
8、(%)下风向预测浓度(mg/m3)占标率(%)11.23E-060.00063.68E-070.0040.00010.01501.23E-080.00180.00010.02911005.74E-050.02871.72E-050.1720.00630.70165.74E-070.08200.00551.36332000.000140.07054.23E-050.4230.01551.72111.41E-060.20130.01343.34503000.000150.07584.55E-050.4550.01671.85111.52E-060.21640.01443.59754000.0001
9、50.07584.55E-050.4550.01671.85331.52E-060.21660.01443.60005000.000150.07424.45E-050.4450.01631.81331.48E-060.21200.01413.52506000.000130.06613.96E-050.3960.01451.61441.32E-060.18870.01263.13757000.000130.06263.76E-050.3760.01381.53111.25E-060.17890.01192.97508000.000130.06393.83E-050.3830.01411.5622
10、1.28E-060.18260.01213.03509000.000120.06253.75E-050.3750.01371.52671.25E-060.17840.01192.965010000.000120.05963.57E-050.3570.01311.45561.19E-060.17010.01132.827511000.000110.05603.36E-050.3360.01231.36891.12E-060.16000.01062.660012000.000100.05243.15E-050.3150.01151.28111.05E-060.14970.01002.4898130
11、09.80E-050.04902.94E-050.2940.01081.19679.80E-070.13990.00932.326514009.16E-050.04582.75E-050.2750.01011.11899.16E-070.13080.00872.174515008.56E-050.04282.57E-050.2570.00941.04618.56E-070.12230.00812.032816008.04E-050.04022.41E-050.2410.00880.98318.04E-070.11490.00761.910317007.80E-050.03902.34E-050
12、.2340.00860.95287.80E-070.11140.00741.851518007.53E-050.03772.26E-050.2260.00830.92087.53E-070.10760.00721.789319007.27E-050.03642.18E-050.2180.00800.88897.27E-070.10390.00691.727320007.01E-050.03512.10E-050.2100.00770.85687.01E-070.10010.00671.665021006.75E-050.03372.02E-050.2020.00740.82476.75E-07
13、0.09640.00641.602522006.50E-050.03251.95E-050.1950.00710.79406.50E-070.09280.00621.542823006.26E-050.03131.88E-050.1880.00690.76486.26E-070.08940.00591.486324006.03E-050.03021.81E-050.1810.00660.73706.03E-070.08610.00571.432025005.81E-050.02901.74E-050.1740.00640.70995.81E-070.08300.00551.3795最大浓度433m0.000150.07664.60E-050.4
