《金融危机后我国货币政策中介目标的研究》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《金融危机后我国货币政策中介目标的研究（47页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、.摘要摘要自从 20 世纪中期开始,关于货币政策中介目标选择的问题一直为经济学家所探讨和研究。包括凯恩斯主义学派、货币主义学派等学派各自坚持着不同的货币政策的中介目标。而西方各国随着在经济发展中也不断转换着本国货币中介目标的选择。20 世纪 90 年代开始,西方各国大都放弃了以货币供应量为货币政策的中介目标,转为变为盯住通货膨胀的货币政策,而在新经济和信息技术革命的快速发展和传播的今天,虚拟经济的快速发展和膨胀下,一场巨大的金融危机刚冲击了世界上的每一个国家,全球性的通胀又接踵而来。这也引起了几乎所有经济学家的研究,并反思当前的货币政策中介目标的选择是否仍然合适,是否放弃货币供应量做为中介目标
2、是正确的选择,还是坚持修改过的货币供应量为中介目标,于是乎关于货币政策中介目标的讨论又开始热烈起来。中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家和世界的制造工厂,随着全球一体化的快速发展,我国的经济已经和全球经济密不可分,我国的经济不仅受到本国经济的发展的影响,世界经济的变化也会对我国的经济产生重要的影响。这次全球金融危机也深刻影响着中国的经济,在外需急剧下降,经济面临下滑的风险下,我国政府果断选择了宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策以刺激内需,保证经济的稳定增长不变。而宽松的货币政策最终又使资金的流动性过剩,直接导致了国内在09 初开始的大范围的通货膨胀。鉴于此,关于我国的货币政策的中介目标选择的讨论开始在学
3、界泛起。虽然我国学界至今没有一个统一的定论,但不可否认货币政策中介目标选择对货币政策的有效性至关重要。而货币政策又是央行调节宏观经济的重要手段。所以关于我国货币政策中介指标的研究不论是当前我国经济状况还是对未来我国经济的发展和货币政策的实施都具有现实意义和重要性。本文首先叙述了凯恩斯学派、货币主义学派等学派关于货币政策中介目标的理论及其所支持的货币政策的中介目标选择。然后概括描述了西方世界自 20 世纪中期以来的货币政策中介目标的选取的历史,以及不同的中介目标背后的不同的经济背景和不同的货币政策的最终目标。接着对在金融创新频繁、虚拟经济高速发展的今天货币政策中介目标选择所遇到的困难进行反思。接
4、着本文对我国货币政策中介目标的选择的历史以及在新经济下和全球一体化过程中我国货币政I47 / 47.摘要策中介目标的选择所遇到的困境进行阐述。接下来本文在对部分实证研究理论的回顾下,利用对我国自 2000 年第一季度到 2010 年第四季度的经济数据货币供应量、利率、国民生产总值、消费物价指数构建线性相关分析和向量自回归模型,对货币供应量和利率作为中介指标与国民生产总值、消费物价指数等我国货币政策最终目标之间关系进行实证分析。本文最后对研究结果进行总结和分析：在当前发展形势下,虽然货币供应量作为货币政策的中介目标和最终货币政策目标的相关性下降,但由于我国利率市场的发展仍不完善,利率对我国货币政
5、策最终目标的影响仍有限,而同时汇率改革仍不完全,汇率作为中介指标的可操作性对我国来说作用也不大,所以在当今仍至相当长的一个时期内,货币政策的中介目标仍然应该使用货币供应量。在总结和分析之后,对我国货币政策的中介目标选择提出了一些有针对性的建议：继续坚持以货币供应量为中介目标的货币政策,同时加强汇率和利率的市场化进程。关键词：中介目标；金融危机；货币供应量；利率II.目录AbstractSince the middle of the 20th century,The debate on the intermediate target of themonetary policy has no en
6、d.Different schools of thought adhere to the differentintermediate targets,including the Keynesian and Monetarism schools. And thewestern countries also continue to convert the intermediate target of the monetarypolicy with the historical development of the nation .Since the 90 years of the 20thcent
7、ury, most western countries give up the money supply as the intermediate targetof monetary policy, turned into a stare-inflationary monetary policy. With the rapiddevelopment of the new economy and the revelution of the informationtechnology ,the virtual economy develop and expand with a high speed.
8、Then thefinanical crisis attacked every country of the world.It raises the concern of almost all.economists and reflecting the appropriate ofthe current choice of intermediate.target of monetary policy .And now the debate of the intermediate target of themonetary policy began warming.With the rapid
9、development of globalization, China as the worlds largestdeveloping country and a large open ecnomy in the world cant separate from theglobal economy. The monetary policy should always be concerned not only about itsown economic development, but also pay attention to changes of the internationalecon
10、omic. The global financial crisis has also affected China. Facing the risk ofeconomic falling, chinese government carry out the loose monetary policy and activefiscal policy to stimulate domestic demand and ensure the steady growth of theeconomy . According to the loose monetary policy ,the excess l
11、iquidity led directly tothe beginning of the inflation in the mainland of china in 2009. In view of this, ourintermediate target of monetary policy is still based money supply should be debatingagain. While the scientific community has not a single conclusion, the choice ofintermediate target of mon
12、etary policy are essential for the future of the Chinaecnomics development.This paper describes the Keynesian, Monetarist School and other schools on theIII.目录theory of intermediate target of monetary policy and its support for the intermediatetarget of monetary policy choices first. Then I making t
13、he general description of theWestern world since the 20th century 50 to 60 years about the conversion of theselection history of intermediate target of monetary policy, the conversion process inthe different economic backgrounds and the ultimate goal of monetary policy.Frequently in financial innova
14、tion and the rapid development of virtual economytoday, the intermediate target of monetary policy must be reflected on the difficultieschoice. Then this difficulties intermediate target of monetary policy on the choice ofconversion as well as in the new economy and global integration process of the
15、 choiceof intermediate target of monetary policy were described.The next part in the reviewof the econometrics theory, using the first quarter of 2000 to fourth quarter 2010 data in the collation andstudy, making the linear correlation analysis and construct vector autoregressivemodel.with the money supply and interest rates as an intermediate target and the grossnational product, consumer price index as the ultimate goal of monetary policy ,Imade an empirical analysis of the relationship.Finally, the conclusions of the researc
