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1、人力资源需求的预测人力资源供求状况分析升职升职升职升职招聘招聘岗位编制岗位编制调入调入降职降职降职降职离职离职调出调出人才市场人才市场竞争对手竞争对手其他部门其他部门其他业务其他业务本部门本部门本部门本部门人力资源需求的预测nAkeycomponentofHRPisforecastingthenumberandtypeofpeopleneededtomeetorganizationalobjectives.Avarietyoforganizationalfactors,includingcompetitivestrategy,technology,structure,andproductivi
2、ty,caninfluencethedemandForecastingHRRequirementsnEstimateofnumbersandkindsofemployeestheorganizationwillneedatfuturedatesnDemandforfirmsgoodsorservicesmustbeforecastnForecastisthenconvertedintopeoplerequirementsForecastingHRAvailabilitynDeterminingwhetherthefirmwillbeabletosecureemployeeswiththenec
3、essaryskills,andfromwhatsourcestheseindividualsmaybeobtainednShowwhethertheneededemployeesmaybeobtainedfromwithinthecompany,fromoutsidetheorganization,orfromacombinationofthetwosources人才储备第一年第一年第二年第二年第三年第三年n n1 1n n2 2n n3 3招聘招聘招聘招聘人才储备1人才储备2n n2 2（n n人才储备人才储备）招聘需求招聘需求n n3 3（n n2 2人才储备人才储备2 2）人才储备需求
4、人才储备需求人才稀缺度越高人才储备越重要规划的关键是n1、n2、n3的确定定量分析方法(Quantitative Approaches)nQuantitative approaches to forecasting involve the use of statistical or mathematical technique; they are the approaches used by theoreticians and professional planners. n趋势预测法(Trend analysis)n“With the past, we can see trajectorie
5、s into the future - both catastrophic and creative projections. -John Ralston Saul The Trend Analysis module allows you to plot aggregated response data over time. This is especially valuable, if you are conducting a long running survey and would like to measure differences in perception and respons
6、es over time.预测步骤收集企业在过去几年内人员数量的数据根据这些数据做图，用数学方法进行修正，使其成为平滑曲线 将这条曲线延长就可以看出未来的变化趋势n例题某企业过去8年人员的数据如下表，预测今后第二年和第四年人力资源的需求是多少。年度12345678人数450455465480485490510525定性分析法（Qualitativeanalysis）nQualitativeapproachestoforecastingarelessstatistical,attemptingtoreconciletheinterests,abilities,andaspirationsofin
7、dividualemployeeswiththecurrentandfuturestaffingneedofanorganization.主观判断法ManagementforecastsnManagementforecastsaretheopinions(judgments)ofsupervisors,departmentmanagers,experts,orothersknowledgeableabouttheorganizationsfutureemploymentneeds.德尔菲法Delphitechniquen德尔菲法：也称专家小组法，是采用征询意见表，利用通信方式，向一个专家小组进
8、行调查，将专家小组的判断预测加以集中、反馈，并反复调查多次，最终利用集体的智慧得出市场现象未来预测结果的定性预测方法。差差距距提交提交反馈反馈修改修改提交提交反馈反馈修改修改 提交提交反馈反馈批准批准第一轮第一轮第二轮第二轮第三轮第三轮提交：经营计划、编制、人力成本提交：经营计划、编制、人力成本反馈：优缺点、建议、意见反馈：优缺点、建议、意见修改：经营计划、财务预算修改：经营计划、财务预算通过反复的反馈与修改缩短经营计划与公司总体财务预算的差距。特征n匿名性匿名是德尔菲法的极其重要的特点，从事预测的专家彼此互不知道其他有哪些人参加预测，他们是在完全匿名的情况下交流思想的。n多次有控制的反馈小组
9、成员的交流是通过回答组织者的问题来实现的。它一般要经过若干轮反馈才能完成预测。n小组的统计回答它报告一个中位数和两个四分点，其中一半落在两个四分点内，一半落在两个四分点之外。这样，每种观点都包括在这样的统计中了，避免了专家会议法的一个缺点。德尔菲法的实施步骤：（1）确定预测题目，选定专家小组；（2）设计调查表，准备有关材料；（3）征询专家初次判断意见；（4）综合整理收回的各位专家初次判断意见，作出定量化的归纳，加以必要说明。并反馈给各位专家，请他们再次思考，提出判断意见；（5）经过反复征询意见后，做出预测值。优缺点n德尔菲法的优点：（1）各专家能够在不受干扰的情况下，独立、充分地表明自己的意见
10、；（2）预测值是根据各位专家的意见综合而成的，能够发挥集体的智慧；（3）应用面比较广，费用比较节省。n德尔菲法的缺点：在综合预测值时，仅仅是根据各专家的主观判断，缺乏客观标准，而且显得强求一致。PURPOSEnThe purpose of the Delphi technique is to elicit information and judgments from participants to facilitate problem-solving, planning, and decision-making. It does so without physically assembling
11、 the contributors. Instead, information is exchanged via mail, FAX, or email. This technique is designed to take advantage of participants creativity as well as the facilitating effects of group involvement and interaction. It is structured to capitalize on the merits of group problem-solving and minimize the liabilities of group problem-solving.PROCESSnIdentify the issue and solicit ideasnResponse to first questionnairenCreate and send Questionnaire #2nResponse to second questionnairenCreate and send Questionnaire #3.nContinuation of the processnResolution
