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1、Managing Agriculture Crises The BSE Situation 农业危机管理和疯牛病,Presentation to: Delegation from China July 14, 2005 Nithi Govindasamy, P.Ag. Acting Executive Director Policy Secretariat Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development,2,BSE Chronology BSE(疯牛病简称)历史,May 20, 2003 1st Canadian cow tested posit
2、ive for BSE 2003年5月31日加拿大检测发现BSE 34 countries closed their doors to Canadian beef 34个国家拒绝加拿大牛肉进口 August 8th, 2003 US announcement of partial re-opening of border: boneless beef UTM; liver; tallow 2003年8月6日美国同意部分开放-无骨牛肉，肝脏和牛油 August 15th, 2003 product list amended to include trimmings; plant segregat
3、ions allowed (UTM/OTM) 2003年8月15日开放牛下脚料,3,BSE Chronology BSE历史,Sept. 4th, 2003 first shipments begin. 2003年9月4日-首次出口 Nov 4th, 2003 rulemaking process begins. 2003年11月4日-决策开始 December 23rd, 2003 discovery of US BSE case. 2003年12月23日-美国发现BSE Jan. 5th, 2004 first comment period for Rule ends. 2004年1月5日
4、-决策第一次评论期结束 Jan. 5th to March 6th, 2004 Rule making suspended. 2004年1月5日到3月6日-决策停滞,4,BSE Chronology BSE历史,March 7th, 2004 comment period re-opened for one month. Includes consideration for OTM meat. 2004年3月7日，评论期重新开始为期一个月。包括对OMT肉类的考虑。 April 7th, 2004 comment period ends.2004年4月7日，评论期结束。 April 19th,
5、2004 USDA amends product entry list to include bone-in beef, ground beef, processed beef products. 2004年4月19日，美国农业部修改了准入产品清单，包括带骨牛肉，绞牛肉，牛肉加工产品。 April 21st, 2004 RCALF court challenge. 2004年4月21日， RCALF 法庭挑战,5,BSE Chronology BSE历史,May 6th, 2004 injunction granted. Product list amended (August 15th li
6、st now in operation). 2004年5月6日，禁令被批。产品清单修改 （8月15日的清单现在生效） 中国最大的资料库下载 OMB received Rule from USDA on Nov. 19, 2004. 2004年11月19日，OMB从美国农业部接受法规 Once Rule is published in Federal Register, 60 day waiting period before implementation. 一旦法规在联邦登记发表，在执行前有60天等待期 US market for live cattle under 30 months of
7、 age was set to open March 7, 2005 under USDA Minimal Risk Rule. 2005年3月7日，在美国农业部最低危险法规下，美国的30个月以下活牛市场开放，,6,BSE Chronology BSE历史,March 2, 2005, R-CALF granted preliminary injunction preventing border opening. 2005年三月2日， R-CALF品准初级指令以预防边境开放。 USDA has appealed district court preliminary injunction in
8、progress. 美国农业部呼吁地区法庭进行初级指令 July 27, 2005 district court will hear R-CALF lawsuit asking for permanent injunction against cattle and UTM beef. 2005年7月27日，地区法庭听取R-CALF诉讼,诉讼要求永久牛肉和UTM牛肉禁令 9th Circuit Court of Appeal hearing on July 13th 7月13日听取9日巡回法庭上诉,7,BSE Chronology BSE历史,Alberta Beef Producers and
9、 Canadian Cattlemens Association have requested intervenor status in the US court. 艾伯塔牛肉生产者和加拿大牛肉业协会要求美国法庭介入状态 Waiting for Judges decision on intervenor status. 等待法官对介入状态的决定,8,BSE Chronology Other Countries BSE历史其它国家,Exports of beef & other products (eg. semen & embryos) have resumed to over 20 coun
10、tries. 多于20个国家的牛肉和其他产品的出口(例如, 精液和晶胚)重新开始 Japan moving away from insisting on 100% testing.日本不再要求100%检验 Korea waiting for the Japanese open for semen, hides, tallow.韩国 等待日本重新开放精液, 兽皮,牛脂,9,BSE Chronology Other Countries BSE历史其它国家,China looking for technical assistance will open for semen, embryos, tal
11、low first. 中国期待技术援助, 将会先开放精液,晶胚,牛脂市场 Hong Kong & Macau open 香港和澳门开放 Taiwan encouraging signs 台湾鼓励标记,Impacts of BSE 疯牛病的影响,Exports of beef recovered in 2004 but were still slightly below 2002 levels ($1.524 billion in 2004 compared to $1.642 billion in 2002). 牛肉出口在2004年有所恢复,但是仍然低于2002年的标准( $15.24亿200
12、4年,14.42亿2002年) Exports of Alberta fresh and frozen beef including offals fell by approximately $500 million in 2003 compared to 2002. (相对于2002年,2003年艾伯塔的鲜牛肉和冻牛肉(包括下水)出口下降大约5亿),Impacts of BSE 疯牛病的影响,Total Farm Cash Receipts (FCR) for cattle and calves in Alberta fell by over $1.3 billion from 2002 t
13、o 2003. 艾伯塔的全部牛和小牛的农业现金收入从2002年到2003年下降多于13亿 FCR for Alberta cattle and calves recovered slightly in 2004, however was still down by over $1.2 billion compared to 2002.艾伯塔的全部牛和小牛的农业现金收入2004年恢复,但是仍然低于2002年多于12亿,Impacts of BSE疯牛病的影响,Normal 7 to 8 cent per lb. spread for fed cattle has averaged 34 cent
14、s per lb. under the US price since January, 2004 通常7到8分每磅伸展肉牛平均34分每磅低于美国价格自从2004年1月. Total losses as a result of BSE estimated at $4-5 billion dollars for all of Canada. 疯牛病总损失预计$40-50亿 Government program payments exceed $2 Billion 政府项目偿还多于$20亿,13,Agri-Food Trade with the US (C$ Millions) 与美国农业产品贸易
15、(加拿大元 百万),14,Canada/US Beef & Cattle Trade (C$ Millions)加拿大/美国牛肉和牛贸易,15,Change in Canada Beef Exports 加拿大牛肉出国变化2002 versus 2004 - Top 5 Markets (C$ Million),16,Canadian herd is growing加拿大牧群在增长,Total cattle and calves on farm: 农场全部牛和小牛 2002 13.76 million 2003 13.49 million 2004 14.66 million 2005 15.
16、09 million,Source: Statistics Canada,17,Canadian herd is Growing加拿大牧群在增长,18,2 bil. pounds,3 bil. pounds,UTM,Free Trade,Removal of Supplemental Import Permits,19,In relative terms whats the impact? 在相关期间,什么有影响? As long as marketings are delayed cow herd will grow.只要市场被推迟, 牛群将会增长 Heifers become cows once they pass the expiry date for UTMs 小母牛变成牛一旦他们经过UTMs的有效日期 Cows get stockpiled, and some continue to calve 牛积存,一些继续生小牛 up 5
