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1、OVERVIEW OF THE IRAQ OPPORTUNITY,Doing Business in Iraq,Amman, 5th June 2003,Achmed Al-Shahrabani McKinsey & Company, Inc.,AGENDA,Overview Iraq Economic scenarios for Iraq Required investments,AGENDA,Overview Iraq Economic scenarios for Iraq Required investments,Total area: 437,000 m2 Limited arable
2、 land Arable land: 11% Permanent crops: 1% Desert: 88% Largest governates Baghdad (8.0m) Nineveh (2.1m) Basra (2.0m) Varying climate (Baghdad) Summer temp: 35-50 Winter temp: 5-15 Rainfall: 155mm/year,Source: Country Watch, CIA world fact book,Car transport 39,000 km paved roads 765,000 privately re
3、gistered passenger cars 266,000 privately registered trucks Air Major airports in Baghdad, Basra and Mosul Three major railway routes BaghdadKirkukIrbil BaghdadMosulYurubiyah BaghdadMaagalUmm Qasr Telecom 3% penetration, no mobile network Utilities 250 water treatment facilities Power generation cap
4、acity of 9500 (pre 1990), currently at 1800MW,Geography and climate,Infrastructure,The majority of Iraq is characterized by desert,OVERVIEW IRAQI GEOGRAPHY,Source: World outlook, EIU country risk report Iraq,50% of population younger than 16 years 28% of population is labor force Approximately 51% m
5、ales 75% of population resides in urban areas There is an estimated 1m2m Iraqis living in exile Fertility rate 4.55 children per women Adult literacy at 54% 1.5-2.5 million foreign workers,Key facts,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2002,CAGR 3%,DEVELOPMENT IRAQI POPULATION 1980 TO 2002,Iraqi population amou
6、nts to more than 24 millions,Million,Source: CIA world fact book,100% = 24.2m,Others,Arabs- Shia Muslims,Kurds Sunni Muslims,4,62,12,Arabs Sunni Muslims,22,ESTIMATE,POPULATION SIZE BY ETHNIC GROUP,Shia Muslims form Iraqs ethnic majority,%,Adult literacy at 54% (vs. 75% in Iran),* From 6 to 23 years
7、Source: EIU country profile Iraq 2002,1980,1998,EDUCATION ENROLMENT RATIO FOR ALL AGES* - 1980 VS. 1998,An increasing number of children does not receive formal education,ESTIMATE,Source: Country Watch,Proven reserves,Unproven potential,Total,Gas Trillion m3, 2001,Oil Billion barrels, 2001,OVERVIEW
8、OF IRAQS NATURAL OIL AND GAS RESERVES,Iraq has one of the largest natural oil and gas reserves,ESTIMATE,Source: BP Statistical review, 2002,1. Saudi Arabia,2. Iraq,3. UAE,4. Kuwait,5. Iran,Oil, proved reserves Billion barrels, 2001,Gas, proved reserves Trillion m3, 2001,1. Russia,2. Iran,3. Qatar,4.
9、 Saudi Arabia,5. UAE,10. Iraq,RANKING OF BIGGEST NATURAL OIL AND GAS RESERVES WORDWIDE, which are the second largest in oil and the tenth largest in gas,ESTIMATE,* Purchasing power parity method, current prices Source: CIA World fact book; Country Watch; EIU country risk report on Iraq 2003,2002,50-
10、60,25-35,1980,DEVELOPMENT OF IRAQS REAL GDP* - 1980 TO 2002,Over the past decade, Iraqs real GDP fell by 50%,USD billion,ESTIMATE,-50%,GDP estimates for 2002 subject to wide variation (USD 24-60 billion),* Purchasing power parity method, current prices Source: CIA World Factbook; Country Watch,2002,
11、3.8-4.5,1.0-1.4,1980,ESTIMATE,DEVELOPMENT OF IRAQS REAL GDP* PER CAPITA - 1980 TO 2002, and purchasing power parity on individual level even further,USD thousands,GDP/capita estimates subject to wide variation (USD 1.000-2.500),-70%,Source: Global Insight WMM 2.Q. 2003,Iraq,Saudi Arabia,COMPARISON O
12、F GDP DEVELOPMENT IRAQ VS. SAUDI ARABIA - 1970 TO 2000,Iraq has suffered a significant reduction in GDP over last 25 years,in billion USD in prices and exchange rates of 2000,Source: Global Insight WMM 2.Q. 2003,Iraq,Saudi Arabia,COMPARISON OF GDP PER CAPITA DEVELOPMENT IRAQ VS. SAUDI ARABIA - 1970
13、TO 2000,In the late 70ties Iraqs GDP per capita was at par with Saudi Arabia,in 000 USD in prices and exchange rates of 2000,* Based on a GDP of USD30 billion and a population of 24 million Source: EIU country profile Iraq,Jordan,Iran,Iraq,Saudi Arabia,Syria,*,ESTIMATE,COMPARISON OF GDP PER CAPITA -
14、 2002,Iraqs current GDP per capita is comparable to Syria and Iran,USD thousands,Source: Economist intelligence unit 2002; OANDA.COM,Iraqi inflation rates %,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,Exchange rates Iraqi Dinar per USD (black market rate),Huge budget deficits lead to “printing of money”,BUT: Official
15、exchange rate has been ID 0,31 to the USD since 1983,2001,2002,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,Current exchange rate ID 900- 1.000 = 1 USD,ESTIMATE,DEVELOPMENT OF INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATES 1996 TO 2002,Iraq has shown high inflation coupled with strong depreciation of the currency,Source: EIU c
16、ountry data,External debt $bn,Iraq,Syria,Jordan,Iran,230-485,10,91,113,% of GPD,60-130,Main causes of uncertainty are Accrued interest “Assistance” funds in Iran-Iraq war Claims following Gulf war 1991,ESTIMATE,COMPARISON OF EXTERNAL LIABILITIES - 2001,Iraq has significant liabilities and can be considered bankrupt,* Estimates range from $103.4 $129.4bn Source:Reuters; Institute for international Economics,25,18,13,10,Saudi Arabia,Gulf Sta
