deloitte某某年给aipc做的落基山脉能源项目评估分析案

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1、,U.S. Energy & The Role of Rocky Mountain Natural Gas: Clean Domestic Energy For a Growing America(2005),There is no economy, be it new, old or even futuristic, that would exist without reliable, accessible and affordable energy,Basic Energy Facts,There is no economy, be it new, old or even futurist

2、ic, that would exist without reliable, accessible and affordable energy,Basic Energy Facts,Over the past 25 years U.S. demand for energy has increased by 35% while our supply has only increased by 17%,There is no economy, be it new, old or even futuristic, that would exist without reliable, accessib

3、le and affordable energy,Basic Energy Facts,We import 14% of the gas and 53% of the oil we use,Over the past 25 years U.S. demand for energy has increased by 35% while our supply has only increased by 17%,Polls demonstrate that the American public:,Source: COGA Flowline, Vol. 17, #3,Basic Energy Fac

4、ts,1. Takes energy for granted,Polls demonstrate that the American public:,Source: COGA Flowline, Vol. 17, #3,Basic Energy Facts,1. Takes energy for granted,2. Neither understands nor appreciates how cheap our energy is in constant dollars or in comparison to other consumer nations,Polls demonstrate

5、 that the American public:,Source: COGA Flowline, Vol. 17, #3,Basic Energy Facts,1. Takes energy for granted,2. Neither understands nor appreciates how cheap our energy is in constant dollars or in comparison to other consumer nations,3. Seems to believe the mistaken notion that energy production ne

6、cessarily entails unacceptable environmental impact,In Colorado about 2,000 drilling permits are issued annually compared to about 50,000 housing permits,Source: COGA Flowline, Vol. 17, #3,Basic Energy Facts,OIL,Total U.S. Energy Consumption by Primary Energy Source 2001,Source: EIA,Petroleum 39.4%,

7、Natural Gas 22.8%,Coal 23.1%,Other - 3.9%,Hydro - 2.5%,Nuclear - 8.4%,World Petroleum Demand,25.9%,76.0 MMbod,Source: EIA,In the last 5 years the world consumed 27 billion barrels/year, but the industry discovered only 3 billion barrels/year Therefore: used 135 billion barrels of oil while discoveri

8、ng 15 billion barrels of oil,Source: USGS,Basic Energy Facts,World Top Oil Producing Countries in 2001,U.S. 9.0 MMbo/d Russia 8.8 MMbo/d Saudi Arabia 8.0 MMbo/d North Sea (UK, Norway, Denmark) 6.3 MMbo/d Iran 3.7 MMbo/d Mexico 3.6 MMbo/d China 3.3 MMbo/d Venezuela 2.9 MMbo/d Canada 2.8 MMbo/d Iraq 2

9、.4 MMbo/d,Source: EIA,U.S. Petroleum Products Production vs. U.S. Petroleum Demand,Production -25%,Demand +24%,Source: EIA,U.S. Crude Oil Production & Crude Oil Imports,Source: EIA,0,5,10,15,20,25,1973,1976,1979,1982,1985,1988,1991,1994,1997,2000,2001,Quadrillion Btu,Oil Production,Oil Imports,Top S

10、uppliers of Crude Oil to U.S. in 2001,Saudi Arabia 1,611 Mbo/d Mexico 1,394 Mbo/d Canada 1,356 Mbo/d Venezuela 1,291 Mbo/d Nigeria 842 Mbo/d Iraq 795 Mbo/d,Source: EIA,NATURAL GAS,Total U.S. Energy Consumption by Primary Energy Source 2001,Source: EIA,Petroleum 39.4%,Natural Gas 22.8%,Coal 23.1%,Oth

11、er - 3.9%,Hydro - 2.5%,Nuclear - 8.4%,U.S. Natural Gas Consumption in 2001 22.0 Tcf,Source: Groppe, Long & Littell,Residential 22%,Commercial 15%,Industrial 26%,Electric Utilities 26%,Chemicals and Materials 3%,Other 9%,U.S. Natural Gas Consumption vs. Dry Production,Source: EIA,0,10,20,30,40,50,60,

12、70,1973,1977,1981,1985,1989,1993,1997,2001,Bcfd,Consumption,Production,U.S. Shortfall in Production vs. Consumption,Source: EIA,Projected Natural Gas Demand,Source: EIA,Tcf per year,U.S. manufacturing is based on affordable and reliable supplies of natural gas. At these prices, it is unlikely the U.

13、S. will attract new manufacturing capital. Todays gas prices are forcing manufacturers to consider production overseas.,Source: Industrial Energy Consumers of America,ELECTRICITY,U.S. highway fuel market totals 11-12 MMbopd making it the single largest petroleum market in the world However the energ

14、y content creating Kilowatts in the U.S. is almost twice as large as the highway fuel market!,Electricity Basic Energy Facts,Basic Energy Facts,In 2001 nearly 42% of the energy consumed in the U.S. was used to generate electricity.,Source: Groppe, Long & Littell,U.S. Electricity Supply by Source in

15、2001,Source: EIA,Natural Gas,16.5%,Coal,51.5%,Other Gaseous Fuels - 0.5%,Geothermal, Solar, Wind - 2.1%,Petroleum - 3.4%,Hydro - 5.8%,Nuclear,20.3%,From end of WWII to start of 2000 residential and commercial electrical use increased 51 out of 53 years Yet no significant new power plants were built between 1990 and 2000,Basic Energy Facts,In 2000, PCs and electronics consumed 13% of our nations energy supply. By 2020, these uses are expected to consume 25% of the nations energy supply. 40% of the countrys electricity is used to power air conditioners.,U.S. Electricity Net Generat

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