《罗兰贝格关于中国加入wto的分析报告》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《罗兰贝格关于中国加入wto的分析报告（61页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、presentation-CEMS-x,Strategic Impact of Chinas entry into the WTO On Chinese and Foreign Companies,Presentation for CEMS Universities in St. Gallen, Stockholm, Bergen, Milano,November, 2001,presentation-CEMS-x,Content Page,A. The macroeconomic impact of Chinas WTO entry 3 B. Automotive 11 C. Apparel
2、 & Textile 22 D. Pharmaceuticals 36 E. Banking 42 F. Securities and Asset Management 48 G. Insurances 52,presentation-CEMS-x,A. The macroeconomic impact of Chinas WTO entry,presentation-CEMS-x,Already the tariffs have come down considerably in the last decade but they still differ strongly between i
3、ndustries,Weighted average tariff rates of manufactured products,Weighted average tariffs with and without WTO accession,Source: World Bank, 1999,Oilseeds Meat & livestock Dairy Other food Beverages & tobacco Textiles Apparel Wood & paper Petrochemicals Metals Automobiles Other manu. Total manu. Tot
4、al,Without,With,presentation-CEMS-x,The impact of Chinas WTO entry has a macroeconomic as well as industry-specific microeconomic impact,Measures,Tariff reductions Abolishment of non-tariff barriers Quotas (imp./exp.) Licenses Local content requirements Distribution restrictions Investment restricti
5、ons etc. Introduction of legal protection Copyrights Auti-dumping,Microeconomic impact,More competitors Price pressure New sourcing strategies, lower factor cost More product variety Increasing productivity, restructuring Concentration process in some industries,Macroeconomic impact,More import & ex
6、port Accelerated growth of GDP Accelerated growth of income (EDP/cap.) and wealth/cap More foreign investment Employment increase/decrease Structural change towards more competitiveness,presentation-CEMS-x,Trading short term pain against long term gain is a walk on the wire,Short term pain,Long term
7、 gain,Source: Dev. & Res. Ctr. Of the State Connect, Goldman Buck, World Bank,Corporate profits (ROI),Employ- ment,Social capital,GDP,Wealth,Trade,Foreign Investment (direct),Price & quality competition Decrease of profit margins Increase in bankruptcies,1% additional growth p.a. 34% until 2010,High
8、 loss of labor/jobs in some industries (e.g. agriculture, automotive), but new jobs created in other industries(e.g. apparel),Increase of skilled labor Rural-urban discrepancy in wealth and income (+4.6% p.a. / 2.1% p.a.),1.15% additional GDP/cap p.a. 60% of population 6000 USD income by 2010,1.7% a
9、dditional export growth p.a. 1.3% additional import growth p.a.,50bn annually,presentation-CEMS-x,The macroeconomic impact of Chinas accession to the WTO will be especially strong in apparel, automobiles and electronics,Some categories as example,Without accession,With accession,Without accession,Wi
10、th accession,Without accession,With accession,Foodgrains Other agriculture Beverages/tobacco Extractive industries Textiles Wearing apparel Petrochemicals Metals Automobiles Electronics Utilities Trade/transport Total,13.11 9.65 4.66 7.59 10.37 6.87 4.71 5.19 1.80 2.56 2.51 2.38 3.18,18.30 14.71 6.8
11、6 11.65 13.23 8.57 7.10 8.42 3.47 4.41 3.64 3.49 4.95,18.10 14.44 4.45 11.25 13.75 18.40 6.68 7.95 1.05 4.66 3.53 3.43 4.82,0.30 2.30 2.49 1.68 8.19 19.52 2.54 3.37 0.13 4.96 5.85 1.70 3.70,0.18 0.74 0.86 0.16 8.34 18.23 2.81 4.85 0.45 7.68 5.01 2.43 4.58,0.20 0.79 0.88 0.20 10.17 43.95 3.22 5.93 0.
12、77 9.48 5.74 2.70 6.34,5.87 2.59 0.85 1.49 13.14 0.97 3.91 4.11 1.85 3.48 1.12 1.89 3.21,15.78 8.18 1.23 8.14 15.83 0.97 4.60 5.08 1.72 4.92 1.65 2.27 4.75,15.27 8.73 14.42 7.87 22.30 3.19 5.18 5.80 7.42 5.60 1.41 2.05 6.14,Table 10. Output, Exports and Imports as a Share of the World Economy,Output
13、,Exports,Imports,1995,2005,1995,2005,1995,2005,Source:, World Bank analysis 2000,presentation-CEMS-x,With some dramatic consequences for employment (1),Source: World Bank and Dev. Res. Ctr. of the State Council,Employment of skilled labor growth: 19952005,Foodgrains,Meat & livestock,Beverages/tobacc
14、o,Extractive industries,Wearing apparel,Without accession to WTO,With accession to WTO,29.11,30.25,69.82,65.29,-32.85,2.88,60.55,62.95,116.46,0.21,Metals,Automobiles,Electronics,Other manufactures,Business/finance,23.04,26.55,50.59,36.54,39.91,42.18,25.52,24.8,-48.11,48.07,presentation-CEMS-x,With s
15、ome dramatic consequences for employment (2),Source: World Bank, 1999,Jobs lost/newly created (in m),Commerce,Apparel & Textile,CoHon,Wheat,Rice,Automotive,presentation-CEMS-x,Elect. media telecom,Media publishers,1) Fast moving consumer goods,HIGH,MEDIUM,LOW,Low,High,Low,High,Degree of globalizatio
16、n,Protectionist barriers today,Construction,Pharmaceuticals,Consumer electronics/ durables,Branded,FMCG1),(,e.g. Coke),Apparel,Automotive,Agricultural products,Trans-portation,Commodity steel,Protectionist barriers,Tariffs in % Quota licenses Investment restrictions - equity - regional,Degree of globalization,Market share of global brands Production relocation costs in % of total turnover,Domestic companies in global indust
