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1、A Robot in Every Home 每一个家庭机器The leader of the PC revolution predicts that the next hot field will be robotics PC革命的领导人预计,下一个热门领域将机器人By Bill Gates 由比尔盖茨Imagine being present at the birth of a new industry. It is an industry based on groundbreaking new technologies, wherein a handful of well-establis
2、hed corporations sell highly specialized devices for business use and a fast-growing number of start-up companies produce innovative toys, gadgets for hobbyists and other interesting niche products. But it is also a highly fragmented industry with few common standards or platforms. Projects are comp
3、lex, progress is slow, and practical applications are relatively rare. In fact, for all the excitement and promise, no one can say with any certainty when-or even if-this industry will achieve critical mass. If it does, though, it may well change the world. 想象在一个新行业的诞生。基于突破性的新技术,它是一种行业中少数的公司出售商业使用和高
4、度专业化的设备数量快速增长的初创企业产生创新的玩具,电子产品爱好者和其他有趣的利基产品。但它也是一个高度分散的行业,一些常见的标准或平台。项目复杂,进展缓慢,实际应用比较少见。事实上,对于所有的激情和承诺,没有人能说任何确定性或者即使这个行业什么时候达到临界质量。如果是这样,不过,很可能改变世界。Of course, the paragraph above could be a description of the computer industry during the mid-1970s, around the time that Paul Allen and I launched Mic
5、rosoft. Back then, big, expensive mainframe computers ran the back-office operations for major companies, governmental departments and other institutions. Researchers at leading universities and industrial laboratories were creating the basic building blocks that would make the information age possi
6、ble. Intel had just introduced the 8080 microprocessor, and Atari was selling the popular electronic game Pong. At homegrown computer clubs, enthusiasts struggled to figure out exactly what this new technology was good for. 当然,上面的段落可以描述计算机行业在1970年代中期,当时,我和保罗艾伦创办微软。当时,大,昂贵的大型机电脑跑大公司的后台运作,政府部门和其他机构。一流
7、大学和工业实验室的研究人员创造的基本构建块,使信息时代成为可能。英特尔刚刚介绍了8080微处理器,雅达利是受欢迎的电子游戏Pong出售。国产电脑俱乐部,爱好者很难弄清楚到底是什么这种新技术很好。But what I really have in mind is something much more contemporary: the emergence of the robotics industry, which is developing in much the same way that the computer business did 30 years ago. Think of
8、the manufacturing robots currently used on automobile assembly lines as the equivalent of yesterdays mainframes. The industrys niche products include robotic arms that perform surgery, surveillance robots deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan that dispose of roadside bombs, and domestic robots that vacuu
9、m the floor. Electronics companies have made robotic toys that can imitate people or dogs or dinosaurs, and hobbyists are anxious to get their hands on the latest version of the Lego robotics system. 但我真的有什么想法是更为现代的东西:机器人行业的出现,这是开发一样,计算机业务30年前。认为目前使用的制造机器人汽车装配线上相当于昨天的大型机。该行业的利基产品包括机械臂执行手术,监视机器人部署在伊拉
10、克和阿富汗,处置路边炸弹,和国内机器人真空。电子公司已经使机器人玩具,可以模仿人或狗或恐龙,和业余爱好者急于拿到最新版本的乐高机器人系统。Meanwhile some of the worlds best minds are trying to solve the toughest problems of robotics, such as visual recognition, navigation and machine learning. And they are succeeding. At the 2004 Defense Advanced Research Projects Age
11、ncy (DARPA) Grand Challenge, a competition to produce the first robotic vehicle capable of navigating autonomously over a rugged 142-mile course through the Mojave Desert, the top competitor managed to travel just 7.4 miles before breaking down. In 2005, though, five vehicles covered the complete di
12、stance, and the races winner did it at an average speed of 19.1 miles an hour. (In another intriguing parallel between the robotics and computer industries, DARPA also funded the work that led to the creation of Arpanet, the precursor to the Internet.) 与此同时一些世界上最好的思想正试图解决机器人的棘手问题,比如视觉识别、导航和机器学习。他们成功
13、。在2004年的国防高级研究计划局(DARPA)大挑战,竞争产生第一个机器人车辆自主导航的能力在一个坚固的142英里的莫哈韦沙漠,前竞争对手设法打破之前旅行仅7.4英里。2005年,五辆覆盖完整的距离,和比赛的赢家是平均每小时19.1英里的速度。(在另一个有趣的机器人和计算机行业之间的平行,DARPA资助工作,导致Arpanet的创建,互联网的前身)。What is more, the challenges facing the robotics industry are similar to those we tackled in computing three decades ago. R
14、obotics companies have no standard operating software that could allow popular application programs to run in a variety of devices. The standardization of robotic processors and other hardware is limited, and very little of the programming code used in one machine can be applied to another. Whenever
15、 somebody wants to build a new robot, they usually have to start from square one. 更重要的是,机器人行业所面临的挑战是类似我们解决在计算30年前。机器人公司没有标准的操作软件,可以让受欢迎的应用程序运行在各种设备。机器人处理器和其他硬件的标准化是有限的,和很少的编程代码中使用一台机器可以应用到另一个地方。每当有人想建立一个新的机器人,他们通常从起点开始。Despite these difficulties, when I talk to people involved in robotics-from unive
16、rsity researchers to entrepreneurs, hobbyists and high school students-the level of excitement and expectation reminds me so much of that time when Paul Allen and I looked at the convergence of new technologies and dreamed of the day when a computer would be on every desk and in every home. And as I look at the trends that are now starting to converge, I can envision a future in which robotic devices will become a nearly ubiquitous p
