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1、POPULATION AGING IN CHINA 中国人口老化 Zeng Yi 曾 毅,Center for Study of Aging and Human Development, Duke University Center for Healthy Aging and Family Studies/ China Center for Economic Research, Peking University,U.N. Projection: RAPID PROCESS OF POPULATION AGING IN CHINA 联合国的预测: 中国人口快速老龄化 Much Faster I
2、ncrease in Proportion of Elderly Persons than in Developed Countries 中国老年人口占总人口的比例增长速度大大快于发达国家,Figure 1. Number of Years It Takes for the Elderly Population Aged 65+ to Increase from 10% to 20% 65+岁老人占总人口比例从10%增加到20%的年数,Extremely Rapid Increase of “Oldest Old” Persons 高龄老人增长速度更快,Figure 2. Internatio
3、nal comparison of average annual increase rates (%) of elderly populations 老年人口年增长率的国际比较,中国家庭人口与老龄化预测 Projection of family households, elderly living arrangements and population aging, using ProFamy,Medium fertility scenario assumptions 中生育率假定方案: （1）In 2000, rural TFR was 1.9, Urban TFR was 1.15, an
4、d overall TFR was 1.63; 2000年农村、城镇时期总和生育率分别为1.9与1.15，城乡合一为1.63. （2）In 2012-2030, assume cohort life-time TFR will be 2.27 and 1.8 in rural and urban areas, respectively. 2012-2030年期间, 假定农村、城镇队列终生总和生育率分别为2.27与1.8。 (3) In the period of 2012-2030, mean age at 1st, 2nd and 3rd births will increase 0.9 y
5、ear-old, i.e. increasing 0.05 year-old per year, and thus the period TFR will be reduced by 5% as compared to cohort TFR, according to Bongaarts-Feneey method - Period TFR will be 2.16 and 1.71 in rural and urban area. 假定2012-2030年这18年内，一孩、二孩和三孩平均生育年龄分别增加0.9岁, 平均每年增加0.05岁。时期总和生育率减少5%, 农村、城镇分别为2.16和1
6、.71,(4) In the period 2035-2050, no increase in mean age at childbearing, and thus the period and cohort TFR will be the same: 2.27 and 1.8 in rural and urban areas, respectively. 2035-2050年生育年龄不再增加，时期总和生育率与队列终生总和生育率相同, 农村、城镇分别为2.27和1.8,We assume % of urban population will be 36%, 55% and 75% in 200
7、0, 2020, and 2050, respectively; We also assume the age distribution of the rural-urban migrants will be the same as that observed in the 2000 census. 假定2020年与2050年城镇人口比例为55%与75%（2000年为36%），并假定2000-2050年农村向城镇迁移人口年龄分布与2000年人口普查得到的模式相同。,Weighted average TFR of rural-urban combined (using % of rural an
8、d urban as weights) 城乡合一总和生育率假定,Note: figures in the parenthesis are the TFR adjusted for the effects of increasing mean age at birth, by Bongaarts-Feeney method 括号中的数字是排除生育年龄增加影响之后的总和生育率。,Medium mortality assumption is the same as our previous work which is very similar to the medium assumption mad
9、e by U.N. and other scholars. 中死亡率方案假定与我们以前做的相同， 与联合国及其他学者的中死亡率方案十分接近。 The medium fertility projection is NOT policy prediction, and it is just my scholarly analysis to project the likely profile of population aging, family households, and elderly living arrangements, under medium fertility assumpti
10、on. 我们这里简要报告的中生育率方案完全是本人对未来人口老龄化大致趋势 预测模拟的学术研究初步成果。,Necessity for establishing old age insurance program in Rural areas in China 建立农村储备积累式社会养老保险制度的必要性。,“Having a son for old age support” is one of the main causes of illegal sex determination before delivery, sex-selective abortion, maltreatment, aba
11、ndonment, and female infanticide. 很多农民利用B超进行非法性别鉴定，不生男孩不罢休的最主要原因之一是“养儿防老”。,Rapid Increase of % and Huge Number of Elderly in China 快速的老年人口增长率与庞大的老年人口数量 (2) Aging Problems will be More Serious in Rural Areas than that in Urban Areas 农村地区的老龄化问题将比城市地区更严重。,The rural baby boomers born in 1950s and 1960s
12、likely have two children or only one child. When they become old or oldest old, many of their children left villages; some of their children will be elderly or getting old. 农村出生高峰队列有两个或仅有一个孩子。当他们步入老年或高龄阶段，他们的孩子很多已经离开农村，还有一部分高龄老人的子女也已经进入老年。 It is not feasible for the Chinese elderly to entirely rely
13、on their children and family for old age support in both rural and urban areas. 无论在农村还是城市，中国老年人想完全依赖他们的子女和家庭养老是不可行的。,Old Age Insurance Program in Rural Areas is Extremely Important for Sustainable Development in China. 农村养老保险制度对中国的可持续发展极为重要,Provides basic right and elementary life quality to rural e
14、lderly: equality and stability of the society. 考虑到农村老人的基本权利和生活质量：社会的平等与稳定。 Can effectively reduce son-preference, reduce sex-selective abortions and reverse the extremely dangerous trend of increasing sex ratio at birth. 可以有效的减少儿子偏好，减少基于性别选择的人工流产，扭转出生性别比不断增长的危险趋势。,Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longev
15、ity Study (CLHLS) The total sample size in 1998 and 2000 was 8,959 and 11,161 oldest-old aged 80+;The total sample sizes in 2002 and 2005 are about 20,000 interviewees, respectively, including oldest-old (focus), younger elderly (as a comparison group) and elders adult children (intergenerational re
16、lations and healthy longevity). The CLHLS surveys were conducted in randomly selected half of the counties and cities of 22 provinces out of 31 provinces in 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2005 covering 85% of total population.,Totalling in the 1998, 2000, 2002, 2005 four waves, face-to-face interviews were conducted with: 10,879 aged 100+; 13,985 aged 90-99; 16,505 aged 80-89; 9,731 aged 65-79 At each wave, the longitudinal survivors were re-interviewed, and the de
