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1、Lean thinking of L/T: The confusion of safety timeLead time的精益思考：安全时间的迷思A good definition of a problem, weve half solved it already. -John Dewey良好的定义问题，问题已经解决了一半。 -约翰杜威During daily discussing, it is easy to make consensus with shorting Lead time, but a lot of friends feel confused for complex holist
2、ic problem and transfer them to me .From this article, I want to discuss some hot subjects. 日常和大家的讨论中，发现大家对于要缩短Lead time都非常认可，但对于整体的复杂问题存在比较多的困惑，并将这些疑问转给了我，本文开始，我希望能和大家一起探讨其中一些引起大家热烈争论的问题。Firstly, Id like to summarize the conclusions from the first two articles:1. Our core problem is we dont have DC
3、E（Decisive competitive edge, it means we must meet one or more significant sustainable customers demand beyond competitors very much and it is difficult to copy in a short time.）to obtain orders continuously. 2. Rapid delivery ability is DCE, it will be obvious appeal to any market segment.3. We mus
4、t cut down Lead time, we can make significant improvement in short term and use minimum investment. 首先我先总结一下上两篇文章的主要结论：1、 我们面临的核心问题是：没有决定性的竞争优势来持续获得订单。2、 项目的快交优势是决定性的竞争优势，对任何细分市场都会有明显的吸引力。3、 建立快交优势必须要缩短Lead time，我们可以在极小的投资的前提下短期内取得巨大成绩。By cutting down Lead time, we face not only one component or on
5、projects lead time, but a systematic problem, There is a broad consensus that if we want to improve the performance of our company we have to take a system approach. Then I want to discuss the systematic improve direction with all colleagues. 在缩短Lead time的道路上，我们面对的不是某个部套和某个项目的Lead time，而是一个系统问题。广泛的共
6、识是想提高我们公司的绩效应该用系统的解决方法。接下来和大家探讨一下Lead time的系统改善方向。We all know, our product need to go through a lot of dependent work station, one finished, last can be started, every process will add value till final delivery. In order to demonstrate it, I want to take an example. If we regard lead time as aggrega
7、ted score of relay race, thus every process likes the race player. To achieve good results we have to do three things:1. Every player should be good enough2. Every player have same goal: the shortest aggregate time.3. Every player do they best to contribute to the common goal. 我们都知道，产品要经过一系列相互依存的工序才
8、能完成加工，每个工序都会使产品增值，最终完成产品的交付。为了要示范，我来举一个例子。如果把产品的Lead time看作接力赛的总成绩的话，那么各工序就相当于各个运动员。要取得好成绩必须做到三件事： 第一、每个运动员有足够的个人能力； 第二、每个运动员的目标要一致：总时间最短； 第三、每个运动员都要发挥最大能力为整体目标做贡献；Please think about why not let each player run 400m separately, and then add each score together?请大家思考一下，为什么4400m接力赛不让4位选手分别跑400m，再让各自成绩
9、相加呢？Every player has lap time, but each player does not care about the lap time, and just try their best to run for team goal. A player is slower, the next player quickly will win back some time, but everybodys speed is shared team, every player to make some contribution, the entire team will have b
10、etter results. This is a cooperative spirit of sports. 接力赛中每位选手虽然都有单圈成绩，但每位选手并不关心单圈成绩，而只是尽力的快跑，为了团队共同目标奋力拼搏。一位选手慢些，下一位选手快些就会争取回来一些时间，而大家的速度是团队共享的，每一位选手多做出些贡献，整个团队就会有更好的成绩。这是一种合作的体育精神。Unlike, let each player run 400m and the assessment is lap time respectively. If one player is not slowest one, how m
11、uch odds that run as quickly as possible? Very low! If each player cannot share their speed, so it is easy to form a challenge culture. 而让各位选手分别跑400m，如果考核大家的是各自的单圈时间。如果其中一位选手不是最慢的，他能更努力快跑的几率能有多大呢？ 非常低！如果每位选手不能共享各自的速度，那么很容易形成一种指责的文化。Attention： The really important is the relay baton, not the race pla
12、yer. 注意：真正重要的是接力棒，而不是运动员！QC master Dr. Deming pointed out in :” according to my experience, about 94% of the problems from the system inherent reasons, 6% is special because of abnormal cause, it is hard to get good result that improved in the noise.” 品管大师戴明博士在转危为安中指出：“根据我的经验，94%的问题来源于系统固有原因，6%才是异常造
13、成的特殊因，在特殊因的杂音中改善很难得到效果“。Scanning our system model base on relay race inspiration: if Lead time management is relay race forms? If not, then we did not find the system reason and only improve in the noise. 我们根据接力赛的启示来审视：我们的Lead time的系统模型是接力赛形式的管理吗？如果不是，那么说明我们没有找到系统因，而只是在杂音中优化。Standish Group, a famous
14、 investigation institution in US, show the research result in project management industry in 2000: the average Lead time beyond the original plan of 63%, the project has been completed 45% average costs exceed the budget, the project has been completed 64% did not meet the delivery. 美国著名的研究机构Standis
15、h Group在2000年对项目管理产业所进行的调查发现：平均Lead time超出原计划的63%，已完成的项目平均成本超出预算45%，已完成的项目64%未符合交期。Not only our company, almost all project management enterprises in the world will face the same problem, the most famous example of that is the stadium that was in Montreal for the Olympic, they gave up the roof. Why most projects cannot be controlled in budget, consistent with the initial plan to finish on time? Most participants in the project management staff will say: too many customers change or alteration in the design, quality
