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1、COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 20182037 FOREWORD By any measure, the commercial aviation sector is soaring. More people are taking to the air than ever before, as our industry has now recorded eight straight years of steady and above-trend growth. It is commonplace for airline passengers to hear flight a
2、ttendants announce full flights, and load factors climbed to a record high of 81 percent last year. And airlines are delivering strong financial results, generating more than $30 billion of profits, unprecedented levels for our industry. For some, this success is too good to be true. But for those o
3、f us who track the commercial aviation market, the continuing growth is less of a recent phenomenon and more of a validation of underlying market fundamentals. Every year for more than 50 years, a dedicated team here at Boeing has pored over reams of economic, airline, travel, and fleet data to proj
4、ect new airplane demand during the next 20 years. I am proud to say the Boeing market outlook is one of the longest-published and most accurate forecasts in our industry. This year, we again forecast a growing demand for new jetliners, as airlines and other operators look to renew and grow their fle
5、et to serve more passengers and carry more cargo. These airplanes also give life to a multitrillion-dollar market for services as operators maintain, repair, and overhaul the jets to keep them flying safely and efficiently. This sector also includes the training of pilots and technicians to operate
6、the airplanes and the emerging field of data analytics to further enhance operational efficiency. So this year, we are providing a holistic view by combining the demand for jets and the services required to operate them into the Boeing Commercial Market Outlook (CMO). Together, our analysis projects
7、 a global demand for $15 trillion worth of commercial airplanes and services, a truly massive market, in the next two decades. You will see this demand playing out differently in each region as operators cater to different demographic and growth trends. With air travel becoming an even bigger part o
8、f our lives and as the in-service fleet is expected to double by 2037, we hope this outlook continues to be a valuable tool to prepare for the growth that is beyond the horizon. RANDY TINSETH Vice President Commercial Marketing The Boeing Company COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2018-2037 TABLE OF CONTENTS
9、 Commercial Aviation Market Dynamics 4 Commercial Traffic and Fleet Outlook 18 Air Cargo Outlook 26 Services Market Outlook 28 Asia-Pacific 36 China 40 Southeast Asia 44 South Asia 48 Northeast Asia 52 Oceania 56 North America 60 Europe 64 Latin America 68 Middle East 72 Russia and Central Asia 76 A
10、frica 80 Forecast Methodology 84 Appendix 88 4,900 8,880 1,560 3,580 1,180 1,970 1,500 3,890 7,360 18,200 24,400 48,540 World Fleet 2017 Total Fleet 2037 Total Fleet Regional Jet 2,320 Deliveries $110 Billion Single Aisle 31,360 Deliveries $3,480 Billion Freighter 980 Deliveries $280 Billion Widebod
11、y 8,070 Deliveries $2,480 Billion 7,210 North America 8,800 Latin America 3,040 Europe 8,490 Middle East 2,990 690 1,630 Africa 1,190 Asia-Pacifi c 16,930 Russia and Central Asia 1,290 10,390 3,550 8,630 China 7,690 1,480 4,340 Southeast Asia 4,520 650 2,710 South Asia 2,400 1,150 1,600 Northeast As
12、ia 1,450 530 920 Oceania 870 Deliveries 42,730 DELIVERIES 3.5% FLEET GROWTH $6.3 Trillion MARKET VALUE 4.7% TRAFFIC GROWTH COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 20182037 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 2017 GDP per capita (USD) 2017 passengers per capita to/from/within country INDIA CHINA USA JAPA
13、N INDONESIA NIGERIA UK AUSTRALIA FRANCE SINGAPORE TURKEY BRAZIL VIETNAM ETHIOPIA KUWAIT PHILIPPINES BANGLADESH RUSSIA Circle size proportional to country population COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2018-2037 COMMERCIAL AVIATION MARKET DYNAMICS 5 FIGURE 1: PROPENSITY TO TRAVEL INCOME LEVELS POSITIVELY CORRE
14、LATE WITH AIR TRAVEL VOLUMES Source: IHS Markit, FlightGlobal, Boeing Analysis STRONG GROWTH IN THE DEMAND FOR AIR TRAVEL Year-over-year traffic growth averaged 6.5 percent during the past five years, setting a pace that ex- ceeded the long-term average of around 5 percent. Low air fares, higher liv
15、ing standards with a growing middle class in large emerging markets, the growth of tourism and travel relative to total consumer spending in major economies, and new airline busi- ness models are all driving this boom in air travel. ECONOMIC AND INCOME GROWTH ARE KEY DRIVERS Socioeconomic changes in
16、 large emerging markets such as China and India have been primary driv- ers of both global GDP growth and demand for air travel. The number of air passengers in China has increased at an average rate of more than 10 per- cent each year since 2011, while Indias emergence as a high-growth economy has fueled more than 20 percent passenger growth per year in its domestic market. With these developments, India is expect- ed to become the third largest commercial aviation market by the early 20
