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1、INTERTANKO Seminar,8th April 2011,INTERTANKO Seminar Schedule,Friday 8th April 2011 0930 Welcome and introduction INTERTANKO Overview Vetting and Benchmarking Piracy Environmental Issues Regional Issues INTERTANKO Work Plan Open discussion on all issues 1200-1300 Lunch,Anti-Trust/Competition Law Com
2、pliance Statement,INTERTANKOs policy is to be firmly committed to maintaining a fair and competitive environment in the world tanker trade, and to adhering to all applicable laws which regulate INTERTANKOs and its members activities in these markets. These laws include the anti-trust/competition law
3、s which the United States, the European Union and many nations of the world have adopted to preserve the free enterprise system, promote competition and protect the public from monopolistic and other restrictive trade practices. INTERTANKOs activities will be conducted in compliance with its Anti-tr
4、ust/Competition Law Guidelines.,Tanker Market Overview,Uncertainty, fundamentals still strong but high oil price a threat Slack in supply of tankers slow steaming (ballast) Lowering of C/P speed Suez Canal less used Piracy effect longer routes/inefficiency Reduced Libyan export, increased Middle Eas
5、t export,The state of the Tanker Industry,Tanker Market World GDP and oil demand change,Source. IMF/BP/IEA/Fearnleys,%,Oil/tanker demand correlates with Economic growth Positive growth projected but there is still uncertainty Because the extra barrel is taken from the Middle east, tonne-miles growth
6、 is stronger,Tanker Market Oil price and freight rates 1970-2011,$ per barrel,Tanker Market VLCC newbuilding prices and break even rates,Based on LRFairplay,m $,$/day,Tanker Market a fragmented industry,Based on LRFairplay,VLCCs 550 Some 140 owners,7%,Suezmaxes 420 Some 110 owners,Aframaxes 890 Some
7、 230 owners,10%,7%,Tanker Demand Increase in world oil demand,Based on Fearnleys,bn tonne-miles,Tanker Demand Tanker trade,Based on Fearnleys,bn tonne-miles,Tanker Demand Seaborne Oil Trade and Middle East Oil production,Based on Fearnleys/IEA,mbd,000 bn tonne-miles,Asia 80% dependent on Middle East
8、, Europe 18% and US 17% - some 15 mbd crude oil through Hormuz 2010,Tanker Demand Crude oil seaborne trade,38 mbd in 2010,3057 bn tonne miles in 2010,Tanker Demand Oil balance: production - consumption,Source: INTERTANKO / IEA,mbd,Tanker Demand Middle East Oil production Jan - 2000 to Feb - 2011,Bas
9、ed on Fearnleys/IEA,mbd,Tanker Demand Trade movements,Based on BP,mbd,Tanker Supply Tanker fleet development,Tanker fleet increase 2003-2013 some 75%,m dwt,number,Assumed max phase out, orderbook March 2009, include chemical tankers,Tanker Supply Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankers 10,00
10、0 dwt + balance assuming various demand increases,m dwt,Conclusions Oil demand, tonne-mile, and tanker fleet indices,Source: IEA, Fearnleys, INTERTANKO,Tanker fleet increase 2002-2010: 46%,Conclusions,Despite disruptions, fundamentals still strong, but . The dust has not settled neither from the fin
11、ancial crises nor the Japanese earthquake/tsunami, and the Arab insurgency continuous Tanker deliveries high next two years and the fleet is young,Conclusions Strategic tanker consideration,China expected drive demand and the Middle East has the reserves Successful Green House Gas reduction will mea
12、n reduced oil consumption Market balance set to weaken the next couple of years Costs reduction needs carful risk management,Conclusions Average age tanker fleet above 10,000 dwt,Based on LRFairplay,Years,Vetting Issues Update,Smart Vetting 1,Vetting Committee objectives & updates: The One Stop Shop
13、 Concept / Terminal Acceptance: We have raised the concept of formation of a common marine assurance “system” (not methodology), which would be accessible and useable by each party concerned in the screening process. Advising of Non Acceptance: We have raised the issue regarding provision of informa
14、tion to owners to enable them to address what may be identified as outstanding in a prompt manner. Conditions of Class: - Transparency to report or not to report? Major survey of members 53% response validating concerns (submitted to OCIMF GPC discussions),Smart Vetting 2,Vetting Committee objective
15、s & updates: Reward Systems to Reduce Inspections: Exploration of establishing further reward systems to benefit good owners. Linking TMSA and the VIQ: Gap analysis undertaken by the vetting committee: Potential benefits from linking TMSA with the VIQ could result in a further shift to more self ass
16、essment. SIRE/CDI HVIQ: We have requested SIRE to re-assess the possibilities of harmonising the SIRE & CDI VIQ into a harmonised VIQ.,Smart Vetting 3,Vetting Committee objectives & updates: Officer Matrix Requirements: SIRE and CDI have advised that they are planning to seek information from owners regarding officer training systems in their respective forthcoming revised VIQs Port State Use of SIRE & CDI reports: We are reviewing the development of systems to increase the current
