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1、 | Standard Chartered Global Focus | Monthly Analysis of Economic and Financial Market Developments 07 September 2010 Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix All rights reserved. Standard Chartered Bank 2010 The risk of a double-dip Correction Genuine, but not inevitable On p
2、ages 36-37, replaces Mexico section with correct version. Highlights of the month Fears about sovereign debt were overblown, and a resurgence of inflation is unlikely. While the risk of a double-dip is genuine, it is not our base case yet. Strong policy responses could save the US from suffering a J
3、apan-style malaise. We believe the Fed will reactivate quantitative easing later this year, keeping GDP growth at 1.0% in 2011 and barely averting a technical recession. While we expect a G3-led slowdown in H2-2010 as fiscal stimulus wears off, this will be balanced by an improving outlook in 2011 d
4、riven by emerging markets, especially Asia, where strong fundamentals will support domestic demand. The global economic slowdown is causing a major asset allocation switch into bonds, which are increasingly correlated to Asian FX, favouring South East Asian currencies. African currencies like the ZA
5、R that are sensitive to bond inflows have also benefited. Risk assets have been characterised by trendless volatility during the summer. We believe UST strength may create upside but is a short-term risk, especially for high-grade bonds. Commodity index investing remains steady but could pick up. Co
6、ntents: Overviews Global: The 64 million dollar question p.2 Asia: Adverse trade winds p.8 Africa: Assessing the growth impact of fiscal adjustment p.10 MENA: Iraq, inflation and GCC markets p.12 Commodities: Correlations continue p.14 Credit: EM credit should benefit, despite volatile markets p.16
7、FX: Global slowdown and asset allocation p.18 Rates: Risk/return in long UST positions diminishes p.20 Economy insights Australia: Trade windfall masks uncertainties p.22 Brazil: The election will bring more of the same p.24 China: Economy has stabilised p.26 EU: Asia more significant than US for eu
8、ro-area trade p.28 Hong Kong: Implications of sustained low HIBOR p.30 India: Tax reform is not radical enough p.32 Kenya: All set for growth p.34 Mexico: The slow road to recovery p.36 Pakistan: Counting the costs of the floods p.38 Singapore: Mind that property p.40 South Africa: The still-elusive
9、 consumer p.42 South Korea: Inflation in check p.44 Sri Lanka: FDI inflows need to gather pace in H2 p.46 Thailand: Bulletproof economy p.48 UAE: Growth, liquidity and the markets p.50 Market snapshots p.52 FX strategy summary p.57 Commodities short-term views p.61 Forecasts p.63 Standard Chartered
10、Global Focus | 07 September 2010 Global Gerard Lyons, Chief Economist and Group Head of Global Research Standard Chartered Bank, United Kingdom +44 20 7885 6988, Gerard.L 2 Downside risks in the US need to be taken seriously; this is a weak recovery The risk of a double-dip is genuine, but not our b
11、ase scenario It is a tale of two worlds: we expect Asia, led by China, to outperform The 64 million dollar question What are the big issues that we should focus on in the remainder of 2010? In many respects, they are the same issues that have already dominated throughout this year, and which, over t
12、he course of the northern hemisphere summer, have led to a subtle but significant shift in market sentiment. The last sixteen months have seen the benefits of a pro-growth policy stance across much of the world. In recent months, monetary policy has admittedly been tightened slightly in a number of
13、emerging economies, and worries about sovereign debt have hung over fiscal policy in the West since the turn of the year. Notwithstanding that, since the successful G20 London Summit of April 2009, global policy has been geared towards ending the financial crisis, minimising downside risks and resto
14、ring growth. However, given the scale of what went wrong before high debt, excessive financial leverage and scale of the derivatives market it would have been asking too much for all the policy aims to have been achieved. The most success was seen in minimising downside risks. There has also been so
15、me kick- starting of the recovery in the West, but only some. As a result, what would have once been called, in the US or UK, the 64 million dollar question remains to be answered. This is the make-or-break question where you get the big prize if you get it right, or risk walking away empty-handed i
16、f you get it wrong. In the current climate, the question is, what will happen in the West once the impact of the policy stimulus of the last year starts to wear off? Normally, at this stage of a recovery, confidence would be rising and economic momentum would be gathering. Alas, in the West, this is not proving to be the case in all economies. In particular, the US looks weak, and the UK, whilst stronger, looks fragile.
