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1、 2 March 2010 Nomura 1 Any authors named on this report are research analysts unless otherwise indicated. See the important disclosures and analyst certifications on pages 69 to 72. Autos and Auto Parts | CHINA INDUSTRIALS Yankun Hou +852 2252 6234 Ming Xu (Researcher) +852 2252 1569 ? Action We e
2、stimate Chinas passenger vehicle (PV) sales will reach 9.7mn units (+16% y-y) in 2010, following strong growth in 2009 (48% y-y). We believe supply-demand will be in healthy equilibrium amid limited capacity growth. We expect prices to stay strong in 1H10F, though they could start weakening towards
3、year-end. Maintain BUY ratings on Great Wall, Dongfeng and Weichai, with preference in this order, as we expect they will attain high earnings growth with possible positive surprises. ? Catalysts Upcoming auto finance policy could stimulate industry demand by more than our expectation, and execution
4、 on scrapping outdated/Euro-I emission vehicles. Anchor themes We believe PV sales will remain strong in 2010F, on: improved affordability; strong inland demand; and possible positive surprise on growth from upcoming incentives and auto finance. We see limited possibility of a price war in 1H10F. Be
5、 selective ? Balanced supply-demand relationship in FY10 We believe auto sales volumes in China will rise by 13% in 2010F to 15mn vehicles, with PV sales up 16% to 9.7mn, crossover sales up 12% to 2.2mn and total commercial vehicle sales up 9% to 3.5mn. We are more optimistic about utilisation in 20
6、10 than consensus and expect PV capacity to increase at a similar rate as sales volume in 2010F. We thus believe supply-demand will be in healthy equilibrium in 2010, mitigating downward pressure on prices amid overcapacity. ? Government policy to increase consumer affordability We believe the gover
7、nment will continue to support the auto industry through incentive policies thanks to its contribution to sustainable economic growth. We expect some new policies in 2010, including: scrapping incentives; government purchases; auto financing; fuel efficiency; and new energy vehicles. We believe GWM
8、and Dongfeng could be the major beneficiaries. ? Risks: demand, demand and demand PV sales remained strong in January 2010, up 122% y-y and 12% m-m, while February showed some cooling off due to Chinese New Year holidays. We believe the PV sales growth momentum will moderate from March due to the hi
9、gh base effect. Strong evidence shows that PV sales are correlated to the stock and property markets, which makes our demand forecasts difficult. We believe domestic brands, such as Geely and Chery, could be more vulnerable if sales fall short of our forecasts, as most domestic brand companies have
10、excess capacity. ? Investment conclusion: buy growth and relatively cheap valuation Auto stocks are at the high end of historical trading ranges on both PBR (average 2.0x versus three-year historical average of 1.7x) and PER (average 13x versus three-year historical average of 10x), but we believe i
11、t is not prudent to short auto stocks as many OEMs should still enjoy decent growth (volume and profit) in 2010. We recommend buying stocks with relatively higher growth potential along with relatively cheaper valuations (Great Wall, Dongfeng and Weichai), and have REDUCE calls on high valuation and
12、/or low growth stocks (Denway and Brilliance). N O MU R A I N T E RNA T I O NA L (HK ) L I MIT E D Stocks for action We like Great Walls competitive advantage in SUVs/pick-ups, and solid cost control capability. Dongfengs rich product line-up and first-mover advantage in auto finance business bodes
13、well. Stock Rating Price ($) Price target Great Wall (2333 HK) BUY 11.30 15.00 Dongfeng (489 HK) BUY 10.88 14.00 Weichai Power (2338 HK)BUY 56.40 76.00 Priced as of 24 February 2010 RUNNING THEME Analysts Yankun Hou +852 2252 6234 Ming Xu (Researcher) +852 2252 1569 Autos and Auto Parts | China Ya
14、nkun Hou 2 March 2010 Nomura 2 Contents Executive summary 3 Valuation 4 Healthy auto consumption to continue 11 Inland demand becoming a key driver 13 Low penetration rate and growth in disposal income support mid-/long term growth 15 Government policy 16 Scrapping incentive to buoy replacement cons
15、umption 16 Auto finance policy to enhance affordability 17 Government purchase 19 Fuel efficiency: new regulation plays a wild card 20 New energy 20 Balanced supply-demand relationship 22 Moderate capacity growth in 2010 22 Ambitious new product launches and sales targets from independent brands 23
16、Latest company views Great Wall Motor 27 Dongfeng Motor 34 Geely Automobile 42 Denway Motors 51 Brilliance China Automotive 56 Autos and Auto Parts | China Yankun Hou 2 March 2010 Nomura 3 Snapshot Executive summary Exhibit 1. Investment summary Price 09 EPS (cents) 10F EPS (cents) Valuation methodology Company Ticker Rating Current Target price Potential upside / downside (%) Nomura forecast Consen
