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1、 WEEKLY 23 February 2011 Nomura 1 Any authors named on this report are research analysts unless otherwise indicated. See the important disclosures and analyst certifications on pages 20 to 23. Oil during this period, oil prices moved up by 21%. This is comparable to what we have seen recently - oil
2、price is up by 13% since the beginning of the MENA unrest and we believe we are still at the initial stage of the three stage process for the current MENA unrest. As we see further evidence of real supply disruption, we will be moving into stage 2 of the event. The second stage is the actual reducti
3、on in oil supply when the Gulf war started and during this period oil price moved to its peak of US$41/bbl, up 109% within a period of two months. The third stage will mark the end of the crisis with the anticipation that supply will resume and during the Gulf war, prices returned back to pre-crisis
4、 level (below US$20/bbl) in three months. Oil 38% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 38% have been assigned a Neutral rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 48% of companies with this rating are investment
5、banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 12% have been assigned a Reduce rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Sell rating; 13% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. As at 31 December 2010. *The Nomura Group as defined in t
6、he Disclaimer section at the end of this report. Explanation of Nomuras equity research rating system in Europe, Middle East and Africa, US and Latin America for ratings published from 27 October 2008 The rating system is a relative system indicating expected performance against a specific benchmark
7、 identified for each individual stock. Analysts may also indicate absolute upside to target price defined as (fair value - current price)/current price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the fair value will equal the analysts assessment of the current intrinsic fair value of t
8、he stock using an appropriate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow or multiple analysis, etc. STOCKS A rating of Buy, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of Neutral, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to p
9、erform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of Reduce, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of Suspended, indicates that the rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicab
10、le regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company. Benchmarks are as follows: United States/Europe: Please see valuation methodologies for explanations of relevant benchmarks
11、 for stocks (accessible through the left hand side of the Nomura Disclosure web page: http:/ Emerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia, unless otherwise stated in the valuation methodology. SECTORS A Bullish stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to outperform the Benc
12、hmark during the next 12 months. Oil Europe: Dow Jones STOXX 600; Global Emerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia. Explanation of Nomuras equity research rating system for Asian companies under coverage ex Japan published from 30 October 2008 and in Japan from 6 January 2009 STOCKS
13、Stock recommendations are based on absolute valuation upside (downside), which is defined as (Target Price - Current Price) / Current Price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the Target Price will equal the analysts 12-month intrinsic valuation of the stock, based on an approp
14、riate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow, multiple analysis, etc. A Buy recommendation indicates that potential upside is 15% or more. A Neutral recommendation indicates that potential upside is less than 15% or downside is less than 5%. A Reduce recommendation indicates that potenti
15、al downside is 5% or more. A rating of Suspended indicates that the rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
16、 involving the subject company. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as Not rated or shown as No rating are not in regular research coverage of the Nomura entity identified in the top banner. Investors should not expect continuing or additional information from Nomura relating to such securities and/or companies. SECTORS A Bullish rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stock
