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1、OperationsManagementThedqesignandmanagementofsystemstomakeproducts,provideservicesanddeliverthemtotheendJsef,Class3:VariabilityandOMITriangleLearningObjectivesVariabilityandProcessAnalysis一Whatisvariabiity?Whatimpactdoesvariabilityhaveonprocesses?一Howwedealwithvariabilityfromaqualitativeperspective?
2、*OMtriangleDeterministicSystemStochasticSystemCharacteristics“Novariability*DemandandsupplyareperfectlymatchedCharacteristics“Variability“DemandandsupplydonotmatchApplication“Process/capacity/bottleneckanalysis*Lineflowchart/Ganttchalt“Calculatetheoreticalcapacityrate/flowtimeApplication*Inventory-b
3、uildup/LittlesLaw/PKformula,Calculatelongrunaverageflowtime/inventory/throughputrate“OMtriangle“Strategiestodealwithvariabilityinoperations*Queueingsystem*InventorysystemWhatisVariability?Variabilitycomesfrom.VariableVariableinputETypesofVariabilityPredictableVariabilityUnpredictableVariability.refe
4、rsto“knowable“refersto“unknowable“changesininputand/orchangesininputand/orcapacityratescapacityratesDemandofpuinakinswillgoupSupplyofpumpkinswillgodownduringThantkssivins丿,沥thecropfeiksBothtypesofvariabilityexistsimultaneouslyPumpkinsaleswillgoupduringThanksgiving,butwedonotknowtheexactsalesofpumpki
5、nspredictableVariabilityUnpredictableVariabilityCanbecontro/ledbymakingchangestothesystem“Wecouldincreaseordecreasethedemandforpumpkinsbyincreasingordecreasingtheprice“Restaurantswilladdstaffduringpeakdemand(Iunch,dinneretcJlstheresultofthe/ackofknowledgeorinformation*Usuallycanbeexpressedwithaproba
6、bilitydistribution*E.8,ExpresstheprobabilityfortheamountofpumpkinproductionCanbereducedbygainingmoreknowledgepfcollectioninformation*Bypayingcloseattentiontoweatherpatterns,wecouldincreasetheaccuracyofourpredictionthatthepumpkincropwill佃iShortReviewonProbabilityDiscreteRandomVariableandProbabilityTh
7、rowadice;thenumberyougetisadiscreterandomvariable:曰wp.1/6丶wp.1/6ProbabiityX二4一wp.i/6(Probabiity师wp1Iass5Wp.1/66wp.1/6Cumulative1probatbiityP(X=2=1/6PfX2=PX=1orX=2=1/3PfX2.1=P(X=1orX=2=1/3123456左PfX=石i5afunctionofxcalledthecumulativedistributionfunction(CDF)ShortReviewonProbabilityContinuousRandomVariableandProbabilityThetimebetweentwocustomersarrivaltimesisacontinuousrandomvariableProbatbif青P宣F肇锣tyI/TCumulativedistributionfunction(CDP)Discretevs.ContinuousDistributions林eesq些nContinuousrandom/-】)PX三)=I/(x)xvariableX
