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1、气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍 Presentation on Physical Impacts Work,Yinlong XU （许 吟隆） Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Beijing, China 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所 Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Tel & Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 E-mail: 3 Mar. 2010,Adapt
2、ing to Climate Change in China: China-UK-Swiss Partnership,内容 Content,工作进展 Progress 国家层面工作计划 National-level work plan 地方层面工作计划 Province-level work plan 未来工作 Future work,工作进展 Progress,国家层面工作计划 National-level work plan,农业（中国农业科学院） Agriculture (CAAS) 草地畜牧业（中国农业大学） Grassland-livestock (CAU) 水资源（南京水利科学研究
3、院） Water resources (NHRI),农业（中国农业科学院）： Agriculture (CAAS),（1）已经发生的气候变化影响的评价 Phase : Current impact and assessment on climate change 目标1：气候变化历史影响的检测 Objective 1: Detect the historical impact of climate change. 目标2：分析已经发生的气候变化与农业气象灾害损失、水资源、种植制度调整的关系 Objective 2: Analyze the relationship between climat
4、e changes which had happened and the loss of agro-meteorological disasters, water resources, cropping systems.,目标3：评估已经采取的适应气候变化措施 Objective 3: Assess adaptation measures which have been taken to adapt to climate change in the past. 目标4：农业灾害风险处置措施评价及选择 Objective 4: Assessment and adoption of agricul
5、tural disaster risk disposal measures. 目标5：评估农业对已发生气候变化影响的脆弱性 Objective 5: Evaluate the vulnerability about impact of agriculture on climate change.,（2）未来影响的评估 Phase : Impact and assessment for the future 目标1：评估模型的验证 Objective 1: Validation of Assessment Model. 目标2：未来气候变化条件下中国种植区域与主要作物种植界限的变化及种植结构调整
6、战略 Objective 2: Under the conditions of climate change in the future, the changes in crop planting area and main crops planting boundaries and the strategy of planting structural adjustment in China.,目标3：未来气候变化对中国主要粮食作物的影响评估 Objective 3: Assessment that climate change in the future impacts on major
7、food crops in China. 目标4：风险与脆弱性评估 Objective 4: Assessment on risk and vulnerability. 目标5：农业灾害风险管理措施评估及建议 Objective 5: Assessment and proposition on disposal measures of agricultural disaster risk.,（3）适应措施和政策建议 Phase : Adaptation and policy recommendations 目标1：我国农业适应气候变化空间区域划分 Objective 1: Space divi
8、sion about agricultural adaptation to climate change in China. 目标2：技术清单编制 Objective 2: Preparation of technical-list. 目标3：农业适应气候变化的政策建议 Objective 3: Policy recommendations about agricultural adaptation to climate change. 目标4：省级适应框架的完善 Objective 4: Complete the adaptation framework of provincial leve
9、l.,草地畜牧业（中国农业大学） Grassland-livestock (CAU),目标1：气候变化对草地畜牧业影响的检测 Objective 1 Detecting the impact of climate change on grassland and livestock husbandry. 目标2：全国层面的草地畜牧业气候变化影响评估模型校验 Objective 2: Model development for assessment of the effects of climate change on pasture livestock production nation wid
10、e. 目标3：未来气候对草地畜牧业的影响与风险评估 Objective 3: Assessment of risk of future climate on pasture livestock production. 目标4：提出草地畜牧业适应气候变化的国家战略和对策 Objective 4: Provide national strategies of adaptation to climate change in pasture livestock production.,水资源（南京水利科学研究院） Water resources (NHRI),目标1：完善全国层面的分布式气候变化对水资
11、源影响评估模型 Objective 1: Consummate China-wide assessment model for climate change impact on water resources 目标2：检测气候变化对典型流域实测径流量变化的影响，综合分析过去适应极端干旱、洪涝灾害的经验 Objective 2: Detect the effect of climate change on actual measurement of stream flow in typical watershed; comprehensively analyze the experience o
12、f past adapting to extreme drought and floods 目标3：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估 Objective 3：Assess the potential impact of climate change on future water resources over China 目标4：水利适应气候变化的国家战略和对策 Objective 4: Address national adaptation strategy of water industry to climate change.,地方层面工作计划 Province-level work
13、plan,宁夏 Ningxia 农业 Agriculture 水资源 Water Resources 适应技术示范 Adaptation case study 内蒙 Inner Mongolia 草地畜牧业 Grassland-livestock 水资源 Water resources 适应案例研究 Adaptation case study,省份1：内蒙古 Province 1： Inner Mongolia, ：草地畜牧业（内蒙古农业大学） ：Grassland-livestock (IM Agricultural University),目标1：气候变化对内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响评价 Ob
14、jective 1 Climate change impacts risk assessment for whole Inner Mongolia grassland-livestock 目标2：未来气候变化情景下内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响预估 Objective 2 Assess the CC risk impact on grassland-livestock for whole Inner Mongolia grassland under the future climate scenarios, ：水资源（内蒙古水利局） ： Water Resources (Hydrological Bu
15、reau of Inner Mongolia),目标1：气候变化对内蒙古水资源的影响评估 Objective 1 Detection of climatic change impacts on Inner Mongolia water resource 目标2：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估 Objective 2 Future risk assessment 目标3：不同草原类型区适应案例研究 Objective 3 Case study of different grassland type region about water resources, ：适应案例研究 ： Typical
16、 Case Study for Adaptation Recommendations,目标1：典型草原草地畜牧业区锡林浩特 Objective 1 Typical steppe grassland and animal husbandry area Xilinhaote 目标2：浑善达克沙地草地农业区多伦 Objective 2 Sandy grassland agricultural area - Doron 目标3：荒漠草原农牧交错带四子王旗 Objective 3 Ecotone of desert and grassland - Siziwangqi,省份2：宁夏 Province 2： Ningxia, ：农业（宁夏气象研究所） ： Agriculture (Ningxia Meteorological Research Institute),目标1：历史气候变化对宁夏农业影响的检测 Objective 1 Analyze the impact of present clim
