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1、货银期末考考试题型： 选择 2 分/题 5 题 判断 1 分/题 10 题 简答 10 分/题 3 题 计算 10 分/题 3 题 论述 20 分/题 1 题 满分 100 分 考前碎碎念考前碎碎念： 1. 这份复习重点完全是猪脚的个人总结，不代表老师意见，其中包括大部分重要考点，但不确保涵盖全部考点。 2. 货银考试的成绩大家其实不用太担心，这门课看起来难，但只要不是考的太太太差，分一般都挺高的，特别是大家的平时分，我懂你们！ 3. 考试范围是 116 章，重点是 46,9,1315 这几章，务必全部弄懂。其他章节可以简单了解一下，看看这份重点神马的。大家每次复习完一章，可以结合每章的 su
2、mmary 自己总自己总结结（自己总结很重要！ ！ ！ ） ，有时间多看课本。1012 章应该不会怎么出题。17 章都是在说金融市场，第 8 章以后就主要在介绍金融中介了 CHAPTER 1 Money, banking and financial markets 资金的转移：将闲置货币转移到资金短缺方，从而提高资金效率 Equity& debt Cash 1. financial markets 分类： bond market：证券、债券、利率 stock market： （最受关注）股票价格可以影响企业通过发行新股所能筹集到的资金规模 foreign exchange market：货币兑
3、换场所、资金跨国转移的市场、汇率决定的场所 （若美元贬值，外国商品相对更贵，美国进口量下降） 2. Money and Monetary Policy 货币与经济周期：货币供给的变动是经济周期波动的推动力之一 如课本 P9 figure4 每次经济衰退前经济增长率都会下降，但是但是不是每次经济增长率下降之后都有经济衰退 Inflation：物价水平持续上涨 原因：货币供给的持续增加 故：货币供给增长率与通货膨胀之间存在正相关（money growth rateinflation） Interest rate： 主要在 Chapter 5 中介绍 货币政策的实施：对货币和利率的管理 由中央银行（
4、central bank）负责 Fiscal policy& monetary policy 财政政策是有关政府支出和税收的决策 Households (net savers） 盈余方 Corporations (net borrowers） 短缺方 Budget deficit 预算赤字 支出税收收入 逆差 Budget surplus 预算盈余 税收收入支出 顺差 （通过借款弥补预算赤字，而预算盈余可以降低政府债务负担） CHAPTER 2 Financial System 1. Financial market 功能：如下图所示 channeling funds; promotes ec
5、onomics efficiency; time purchase better 要知道区分 direct finance& indirect finance （只要涉及金融中介机构如银行证券公司等都是简介融资） 结构： 按不同分类标准， 金融市场可分为 debt& equity market primary& secondary market exchanges& over-the-counter market money& capital market Debt and equity market 主要通过发行债券 (bonds or mortgages)或者股权筹集资金 Debt mar
6、ket 根据期限长短可分为：Short-term (maturity=10year) Intermediate-term Equity market 持有者得到定期支付股利（dividend）无到期日，视为长期证券 对比利弊： （Chapter 8 重点介绍） 公司在向股权持有者支付前，必须完成向所有债权人的支付 股权拥有者可以直接分享公司盈利能力和资产增加的好处，而债权人收到支付是固定的 Primary and secondary markets 根据进入市场的先后，可分为一级市场和二级市场 一级市场： 将股票或债券销售给最初购买者的金融市场。 一般不公开。 （投行承销证券） 二级市场：交易
7、已发行。Broker（经纪人）将买卖的人匹配；dealer（交易商）按照报价买卖证券，将买卖双方连接起来 二级市场的重要功能：二级市场的存在促进了 IPO 的进行，促进了一级市场的流动性二级市场的活跃性直接影响一级市场的发行价格 Exchanges and over-the-counter market Money and capital market 货币市场：交易短期债务工具；资本市场：交易长期债务工具与股权工具 2. 金融市场国际化（了解） Foreign bonds：在国外发行，且币种由发行国确定 Eurobond 欧洲债券：国外市场发现，但币种不由发行国确定（如在伦敦发行以美元计价的
8、债券） 发展迅速 变种：Eurocurrencies 欧洲货币：指存放在本国之外的银行的外国货币 注意：以欧元计价的债券只有其发行国为欧元区以外的国家才可称作欧洲债券 3. 金融中介机构的功能 是重要的融资渠道，原因可从以下三方面分析： Lower Transaction cost Developed expertise Economies of scale （交易规模分摊在每一美元交易上成本） 此外， 金融中介机构交易成本低， 使它们得以向客户提供流动性服务 （liquidity service） Risk sharing risk asset transformation& portfol
9、io Asymmetric information 交易前交易前：adverse selectionmore likely to select risky borrower 交易后交易后：moral hazardless likely borrower will repay loan 金融中介机构可防止逆向选择、道德风险所造成的问题，因为：与个人相比，甄别信贷风险技术高，降低由逆向选择带来的损失；具有专门技术来监管借款人活动，从而降低道德风险造成的损失 金融中介机构的分类 P39 和监管 P42 （了解） CHAPTER 3 Money 1. Money: anything that is g
10、enerally accepted in payment for goods and services or in the repayment of debts. Functions of money Medium of exchange 区别于 stock, bonds, house 等的主要功能 （降低交易成本；鼓励专业化和劳动分工） Unit of account （节省交易成本） Store of value Types of money: commodity money, fiat money, checks, electronic payment, e-money 2. Measu
11、ring money CHAPTER 4 Understanding Interest rate 1. Simple present value: 2. Yield to maturity （YTM） 使债务工具所有未来回报的现值与其今天的价值相等的利率 3. 四种类型的信用市场工具： Simple Loan 企业发放商业贷款 nPV = todays (present) valueCF = future cash flow (payment) = the interest rateCFPV = (1 + )ii1PV = amount borrowed = $100CF = cash flo
12、w in one year = $110 = number of years = 1$110$100 = (1 + )(1 + ) $100 = $110$110(1 + ) = $100 = 0.10 = 10%For simple loans, the simple interest rate equniiiials theyield to maturity Fixed-Payment Loan 分期贷款 抵押贷款 Coupon Bond 公司债券 国债 结论结论：当息票债券价格=面值时，到期收益率=息票利率 P75 息票债券价格与到期收益率负相关 债券价格低于面值时，到期收益率息票利率
13、Consol/ Perpetuity 无到期日 不必偿还本金 只需支付固定的息票利息 C I=C/P Discount Loan 国库券 储蓄债券 I = ( FP) / P 4. Current yield & Yield on a discount basis Current yield 当期收益率 I=C/P 对 consol 而言，Current yield =Yield to maturity 当息票债券期限越长，Current yield 与 Yield to maturity 越接近 债券价格越接近面值，Current yield 越接近于 Yield to maturity Y
14、ield on a discount basis 贴现收益率 I = ( FP) / F * 360/(number of day to maturity) 贴现收益率总是低于到期收益率，并且贴现发行债券期限越长，二者之间差异越大，但它的变动总是意味着到期收益率的同向变动（因为是 F-P/F 而不是 F-P/P, 是 360 而不是 365） 23Using the same strategy used for the fixed-payment loan:P = price of coupon bondC = yearly coupon paymentF = face value of th
15、e bond = years to maturity dateCCCCFP = . . . +1+(1+ )(1+ )(1+ )(1nniiii+ )ni23Using the same strategy used for the fixed-payment loan:P = price of coupon bondC = yearly coupon paymentF = face value of the bond = years to maturity dateCCCCFP = . . . +1+(1+ )(1+ )(1+ )(1nniiii+ )ni5. Return rate（区分利率
16、和回报率） 通过第通过第 P84 表格得出以下结论表格得出以下结论： 只有当持有期与到期期限一致时，债券回报率才与到期收益率相等 利率上升利率上升，债券回报率债券回报率（RET）下降下降（因为利率上升，代表债券价格的下跌，意味着资本损失的发生。若损失足够大，债券就可能变得不具投资价值） 长期债券的价格和回报率的波动性比短期债券大 （因为期限越长， 价格波动受利率影响的程度也越大）债券到期日越远，当利率上升时，回报率就越低 即使某一债券最初利润很高，当利率上升时，其回报率也可能变为负数 6. Interest Risk Prices and returns for long-term bonds
17、 are more volatile than those for shorter-term bonds There is no interest-rate risk for any bond whose time to maturity matches the holding period 7. Fisher Equation (实际利率和名义利率) 若实际利率为-2%，代表贷款人赚取-2%利率，而借款人少还 2% 实际利率和名义利率往往不是同向变化（P88 图） = nominal interest rate = real interest rate = expected inflatio
18、n rateWhen the real interest rate is low,there are greater incentives to borrow and fewer incentives to lend.The real intererreiiiiest rate is a better indicator of the incentives toborrow and lend.CHAPTER 5 The Behavior of Interest Rate 1.资产需求决定因素资产需求理论 2.债券市场中 D-S 曲线 Market Equilibrium: When Bd =
19、Bs the equilibrium (or market clearing) price and interest rate When Bd Bs excess demand （price will rise and interest rate will fall） When Bd Bs excess supply （price will fall and interest rate will rise） 特别注意特别注意： 从下往上看 price 逐渐增大，interest 逐渐减小，p 与 i 负相关 price 与 interest 的变动引起需求量或供给的变动，但不涉及曲线的位移 3
20、. Shifts in the Bond Demand Curve Comment： 解释为什么 expect interest rate 和 expect inflation 会导致需求左移 当 Expect interest rate，expect price(Pe)expect return for long-term bonds（R）Demand 当 expect inflation，代表有形资产物价，expect return，债券的 expect return相对投入债券相对 Demand 或又因为费雪方程，Ir=In-e，e，Irpricedemand Demand 4. Shi
21、fts in the Bond Supply Curve 5. Fisher effect：expect inflation interest rate The price of bond but the quantity is not determined 6. Business Cycle Expansion (经济扩张时，债券市场中需求量波动幅度一般小于供给波动幅度) 7. Loanable Funds Framework 可贷资金理论 8. The Liquidity Preference Framework 流动性流动性偏好理论偏好理论 Shifts in the Demand fo
22、r Money Shifts in the Supply of Money Income Effecta higher level of income causes the demand for money at each interest rate to increase and the demand curve to shift to the right Price-Level Effecta rise in the price level causes the demand for money at each interest rate to increase and the deman
23、d curve to shift to the right 总结总结： 9.9.三种可能性三种可能性：P120P120 Liquidity preference framework leads to the conclusion that an increase in the money supply will lower interest ratesthe liquidity effect. Income effect finds interest rates rising because increasing the money supply is an expansionary infl
24、uence on the economy. Price-Level effect predicts an increase in the money supply leads to a rise in interest rates in response to the rise in the price level. Expected-Inflation effect shows an increase in interest rates because an increase in the money supply may lead people to expect a higher pri
25、ce level in the future. CHAPTER 6 The Risk and Term Structure of Interest Rate 1.利率的风险结构（三因素：default risk，liquidity，income tax） Default riskoccurs when the issuer of the bond is unable or unwilling to make interest payments or pay off the face value (a)U.S. T-bonds were considered default free (b)Ri
26、sk premiumthe spread between the interest rates on bonds with default risk and the interest rates on T-bonds 风险高，流动性更弱 风险低，流动性更强 国家债券需考虑 income tax，市政债券则不需要，所以呈现较低利率，如下图 2.Term Structure of Interest Rates Yield curvea plot of the yield on bonds with differing terms to maturity but the same risk, liq
27、uidity and tax considerations Three important facts Interest rates on bonds of different maturities move together over time When short-term interest rates are low, yield curves are more likely to have an upward slope; when short-term rates are high, yield curves are more likely to slope downward and
28、 be inverted Yield curves almost always slope upward 3. Expectations Theory Key Assumption: Bonds of different maturities are perfect substitutes The interest rate on a long-term bond will equal an average of the short-term interest rates that people expect to occur over the life of the long-term bo
29、nd Buyers of bonds do not prefer bonds of one maturity over another; they will not hold any quantity of a bond if its expected return is less than that of another bond with a different maturity 4. Segmented Markets Theory Bonds of different maturities are not substitutes at all The interest rate for
30、 each bond with a different maturity is determined by the demand for and supply of that bond Investors have preferences for bonds of one maturity over another If investors have short desired holding periods and generally prefer bonds with shorter maturities that have less interest-rate risk, then th
31、is explains why yield curves usually slope upward 5. Liquidity Premium & Preferred Habitat Theories The interest rate on a long-term bond will equal an average of short-term interest rates expected to occur over the life of the long-term bond plus a liquidity premium that responds to supply and dema
32、nd conditions for that bond Key Assumption: Bonds of different maturities are substitutes, but are not perfect substitutes Implication: Modifies Expectations Theory with features of Segmented Markets Theory Investors prefer short rather than long bonds must be paid positive liquidity (term) premium,
33、 lnt, to hold long-term bonds 6. Liquidity Premium and Preferred Habitat Theories, Explanation of the Facts Interest rates on different maturity bonds move together over time; explained by the first term in the equation Yield curves tend to slope upward when short-term rates are low and to be invert
34、ed when short-term rates are high; explained by the liquidity premium term in the first case and by a low expected average in the second case Yield curves typically slope upward; explained by a larger liquidity premium as the term to maturity lengthens CHAPTER 7 The Stock Market, the Theory of Ratio
35、nal Expectations, and the Efficient Market Hypothesis 1. The Stock Market One-Period Valuation Model Dividend Valuation Model Gordon Growth Model Assumptions：假定股利永远按照不变的比率增长 假定 gKe How the Market Sets Prices The price is set by the buyer willing to pay the highest price The market price will be set
36、by the buyer who can take best advantage of the asset Superior information about an asset can increase its value by reducing its risk 2. Theory of Rational Expectations Expectations will be identical to optimal forecasts using all available information Even though a rational expectation equals the o
37、ptimal forecast using all available information, a prediction based on it may not always be perfectly accurate a) It takes too much effort to make the expectation the best guess possible b) Best guess will not be accurate because predictor is unaware of some relevant information Formal Statement of
38、the Theory 3. Implications of the Theory If there is a change in the way a variable moves, the way in which expectations of the variable are formed will change as well The forecast errors of expectations will, on average, be zero and cannot be predicted ahead of time 4. Efficient MarketsApplication
39、of Rational Expectations Current prices in a financial market will be set so that the optimal forecast of a securitys return using all available information equals the securitys equilibrium return In an efficient market, a securitys price fully reflects all available information Why the Efficient Ma
40、rkets Hypothesis makes sense All unexploited profit opportunities eliminated Efficient Market holds even if are uninformed, irrational participants in market Evidence in Favor of Market Efficiency Having performed well in the past does not indicate that an investment advisor or a mutual fund will pe
41、rform well in the future If information is already publicly available, a positive announcement does not, on average, cause stock prices to rise Stock prices follow a random walk Technical analysis cannot successfully predict changes in stock prices Evidence Against Market Efficiency(了解) Small-firm e
42、ffect January Effect Market Overreaction Excessive Volatility Mean Reversion New information is not always immediately incorporated into stock prices Application Investing in the Stock Market Recommendations from investment advisors cannot help us outperform the market A hot tip is probably informat
43、ion already contained in the price of the stock Stock prices respond to announcements only when the information is new and unexpected A “buy and hold” strategy is the most sensible strategy for the small investor CHAPTER 8 An Economics Analysis of Financial Structure 1. Financial intermediariesreduc
44、e transaction costs a) Economies of scale b) Expertise 2. Asymmetric Information Adverse selection occurs before the transaction Moral hazard arises after the transaction Agency theory analyses how asymmetric information problems affect economic behavior 3. Free rider Problem-occurs when people who
45、do not pay for information take advantage of the information that other people have paid for Principle-agent problem- separation of ownership and control of the firm, Managers pursue personal benefits and power rather than the profitability of the firm 4. Summary (8 Facts& asymmetric info problem )
46、CHAPTER 9 Banking and the Management of Financial Institutions 银行资产负债表（之后可以和央行的资产负债表进行对比） 注意注意：银行的三方面管理：流动性管理，资产管理，资本充足率的管理。 1） 了解其原因，造成的影响.（P226 中间部分这些管理的解释什么的最好看下） 2） Liquidity management .阐述的关于 ER 的重要性 （P229） 以及三种方式来解决 reserve出现不足情况，并进行对比。 3） Asset management。有三个目标。出现在课本 P229-P230.其中会有个保持流动性及从流动性
47、较差的资产上获利的矛盾。 4） Liability management。矛盾是 融资风险与融资成本的问题。 5） Capital management 。 了解帮助避免 bank failure 的过程弄清。三个指数 ROA ，ROE ，EM，可能有计算题出现。 信用风险： 这个与前面第八章的几个 Facts 有关， 其中老师讲的较多的主要是 specialization in lending, loan commitments, collateral and compensating balances, credit rationing. 了解下就好了 CHAPTER 11 Economi
48、c Analysis of Banking Regulation 这章老师只讲了 P279-P288 部分。 主要是概念性的总系， 问题应该不大， 如果要看的话， 那 P283 的 Restriction on Asset holding and bank capital requirements 老师讲的会多些吧。 CHAPTER 13 Multiple Deposit Creation and the Money Supply Process The central bankthe Federal Reserve Systemthe most important Banks (deposi
49、tory institutions) Depositors Borrowers from banks The Feds Balance Sheet (P334) Federal Reserve System Assets Liabilities Government securities Currency in circulation Discount loans Reserves MB (high-powered money) = C + R (P335) From a bank In deposit From non-bank public In currency OMS Shifts f
50、rom deposits into currencyhave no effect on the MB (P363) Discount Loans (364) Float Other factors that affects the MB Treasury deposits at the Fed Interventions in the foreign exchange market Deposit creation: The single bank Deposit creation: The banking system Holding cash stops the process Criti
51、que of the simple model Banks may not use all of their ER to buy securities or make loans Four players in the money supply process (P333) OMP Open market operation (P360364) (P365) Control of the MB (P335-341) Formula: Multiple deposit creation: a simple model (P341-347) CHAPTER 14 Determinants of t
52、he Money Supply 4.下图帮助大家理解 +代表 positive related -代表 negative related 1 + c m = r + e + c MmMB+MBn +DL +OMP -OMS -e -c -r -Market Interest Rate +Expected Deposit Outflow Federal reserve system Depositors and banks All Depositors CHAPTER 15 Tools of Monetary Policy 1.概念框架 Open market operations Change
53、s in borrowed reserves Changes in reserve requirements Demand curve Supply and demand in market for reserves Supply curve (P394) Market equilibrium OMP- iff falls Open market operations OMS- iff rises Demand curve intersects the supply curve on the flat section Discount lending Demand curve intersec
54、ts the supply curve on the vertical section Reserve requirementsRR rises, iff rises Dynamic open market operations Defensive open market operations Primary dealers TRAPS (Trading Room Automated Processing System) Repurchase agreements Matched sale-purchase transaction The Fed has complete control ov
55、er the volume Flexible and precise Easily reversed Quickly implemented Primary creditstanding lending facility Operation of the discount Window Secondary credit Seasonal credit Lender of last resortcreates moral hazard problem Advantages and disadvantages If RR rises, m falls, money supply falls; de
56、mand for reserves rises, iff falls If RR falls, m rises, money supply rises; demand for reserves falls, iff rises Disadvantages Tools of monetary policy (chapter14, chapter15 P373) How changes in the tools of monetary policy affect the federal funds rate The market for reserves and the federal funds
57、 rate (P373-378) Advantages of open market operation Open market operation (P378-380) Discount policy (P380-383) Reserve requirements (P383-385) 2.Figures CHAPTER 16 What Should Central Banks Do? Monetary Policy Goals, Strategy, and Tactics 最后提醒大家最后提醒大家，货银期末考以往题目难度都不大，大家轻松上阵。在所有专业课中，这是相对轻松的一门， 突击效果明显， 主要是做到理解内容。 在回答问答题或者论述题时，优先使用图或计算来配合文字解释。最后预祝大家期末考试各种人品爆发,Good luck!
