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1、2016年上海外国语大学专业学位英语口译/笔译初试英语翻译基础（100分）12月26日14:0017:00I. Cloze. (共15个空，一空两分，共30分)卷子上的标题是Heres why the “American century” will survive rise of ChinaThe American century will survive the rise of ChinaJoseph Nye March 25, 2015Entropy is a greater challenge than Chinese growth, writes Joseph NyeIn 1941 T
2、ime editor Henry Luce proclaimed “the American century”. Some now see this coming to an end as 1. a result of the nations economic and political decline. Many point to the example of US failure to convince its allies to stay out of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Beijings rival to the Worl
3、d Bank; but this was 2.more an example of a faulty decision than evidence of decline, which raises the question of what is the natural life cycle of a nation.A century is generally the limit for a human organism but countries are social constructs. Rome did not collapse until more than three centuri
4、es after it reached its apogee of power in 117AD. After American independence in 1776 Horace Walpole, the British politician, lamented that his nation had been reduced to the level of Sardinia, just as Britain was about to enter the industrial revolution that 3. powered its second century as a globa
5、l power.Any effort at assessing American power in the coming decades should 4. take into account how many earlier efforts have been wide of the mark. It is chastening to remember how wildly 5. exaggerated US estimates of Soviet power in the 1970s and of Japanese power in the 1980s were. Today some s
6、ee the Chinese as 10ft tall and proclaim this “the Chinese century”.Chinas size and relatively rapid economic growth will bring it closer to the US in terms of its power resources in the next few decades. But this does not necessarily mean it will surpass the US in military, economic and soft power.
7、6. Even if China suffers no big domestic political setback, many projections are simple linear extrapolations of growth rates that are likely to slow in the future. 7.Moreover, economic projections are one dimensional. They ignore US military and soft power advantages, such as the desire of students
8、 around the world to attend US universities. They also overlook Chinas geopolitical 8. dis-advantages in the Asian balance of power, compared with Americas relations with Europe, Japan and India, which are likely to remain more favourable.It is not impossible that a challenger such as China, Europe,
9、 Russia, India or Brazil will surpass the US in the first half of this century but it is but not likely.On the question of absolute rather than 9. relative American decline, the US faces serious problems in areas such as debt, secondary education, income in?equality and political gridlock but these
10、are only part of the picture. On the positive side of the ledger are favourable trends in demography, technology and energy as well as abiding factors such as geography and entrepreneurial culture.The scenarios that could 10. precipitate decline include ones in which the US overreacts to terrorist a
11、ttacks by turning inwards and thus cuts itself off from the strength it obtains from openness. Alternatively it could react by overcommitting itself, and wasting blood and treasure as it did in Vietnam and Iraq.As an overall assessment, describing the 21st century as one of American decline is inacc
12、urate and misleading. Though the US has problems it is not in absolute decline, unlike ancient Rome, and it is likely to remain more powerful than any single state in coming decades.The real problem is not that it will be overtaken by China or another contender but rather that it faces a rise in the
13、 power resources of many othersboth states and non-state actors such as transnational corporations, terrorist groups and cyber criminals. And it will face an increasing number of global problems that will 11. call on our ability to organise alliances and networks.12. Contrary to the views of those w
14、ho proclaim this the Chinese century, we have not entered a post-American world. But the American century of the future will not look the same as in previous decades. The US 13. share of the world economy will be smaller than it was in the middle of the past century.Furthermore, the complexity creat
15、ed by the rise of other countries, as well as the increased role of non-state actors, will make it harder for even America, the biggest power, to 14. wield influence and organise action. Entropy is a greater challenge than China.At the same time, even when the US had its greatest preponderance of po
16、wer resources, it often failed to secure what it wanted. Those who argue that the disorder of todays world is much worse than in the past should remember a year such as 1956, when the US was unable to prevent Soviet 15. repression of a revolt in Hungary; or the Suez invasion by our allies Britain, France and Israel.We must not view the past through rose-tinted glasses. Now, with slightly less prepondera
