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1、OutlookOur six-year investment theme endures.Investment Management DivisionInvestment Strategy Group | January 2015US PreeminenceThis material represents the views of the Investment Strategy Group in the Investment Management Division of Goldman Sachs. It is not a product of Goldman Sachs Global Inv
2、estment Research. The views and opinions expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other groups of Goldman Sachs.Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani Chief Investment Officer Investment Strategy Group Goldman SachsBrett NelsonHead of Tactical Asset AllocationInvestment Strategy GroupGoldman SachsAddit
3、ional Contributors from the Investment Strategy Group:Matthew WeirManaging DirectorMaziar MinoviManaging DirectorBenoit MercereauManaging DirectorFarshid AslManaging Director2015 OUTLOOKOutlook Investment Strategy Group 1Overviewthe preeminence of the united states has driven our investment views fo
4、r the past six years and over this time we have recommended clients maintain the core of their strategic allocation in US assets. Since the global financial crisis, the United States has outpaced major developed and emerging market countries and regions across economic, financial and human capital d
5、imensions. With US equities now some 240% higher than their 2009 trough, we have to ask: Has the investment theme of US preeminence already played out?We answer that question in the pages that follow by examining key measures and showing that the gap between the United States and other major countri
6、es and regions has widened relative to pre-crisis levels. The United States continues to build on its strengths, ranging from immigration to innovation, while many other key developed and emerging market countries and regions are held back by their structural fault lines, ranging from demographics t
7、o governance. Our analysis shows that the full scale of US preeminence has not yet been fully factored in or discounted. We believe that our six-year investment theme will therefore endure for the foreseeable future. We continue to recommend maintaining a strategic overweight to US equities relative
8、 to their share of global market capitalization. While we advise our clients to stay fully invested in US equities, we recommend caution, given that valuations are in the 9th decile of their historical range in the post-WWII period. It also needs to be said that US preeminence does not mean that US
9、assets consistently will outperform or avoid bouts of volatility. But even after their staggering outperformance in recent years, we believe that US assets can continue to do well.In this report, we include our return expectations for all major asset classes for the next one and five years, along wi
10、th the key risks that could alter their trajectory. The balance of the report is dedicated to an in-depth discussion of the outlook for the major developed and emerging economies, global equities, currencies, fixed income and commodities.Goldman Sachs january 2015 22015 outlookContents4 US Preeminen
11、ceOur Six-Year Investment Theme Endures8 uS Preeminence: the Gap WidensWe believe that US preeminence is not fully priced into markets, and that our six-year investment theme will endure through 2015.8 Widening Gap across Most Key Economic Metrics13 Widening Gap across Financial Markets17 Widening G
12、ap across Human Capital Factors18 Is the Widening Gap Cyclical or Structural?19 Investment Implications of the Widening Gap19 Strategic Implications20 Tactical Tilt Implications25 Prospective Returns25 the Risks to our Investment Views26 Federal Reserve Tightening 28 Eurozone Crisis Is Reignited30 T
13、he “Unpredictable” President Vladimir Putin 31 Geopolitical Risks of 2014 Spill Over into 201532 Ebola Epidemic32 key takeawaysWe maintain our recommendation that clients stay fully invested in US equities with some tactical overweight allocations to high yield bonds and to the US dollar relative to
14、 the euro and the yen.SECtIoN IOutlook Investment Strategy Group 334 2015 Economic Outlook36 united States40 Eurozone 42 united kingdom 43 Japan 44 Emerging Markets 48 2015 Financial Markets Outlook50 uS Equities54 EAFE Equities56 Eurozone Equities57 uk Equities58 Japanese Equities60 Emerging Market
15、 Equities61 Global Currencies65 Global Fixed Income73 Global CommoditiesSECtIoN II: GlobAl DIVERGENCES SECtIoN III: Not YEt out to PAStuREGoldman Sachs january 2015 SECTION I4US Preeminence: Our Six-Year Investment Theme Enduresthe preeminence of the United States has driven our investment views and
16、 annual Outlooks since the dark days of 200809. While the prevailing sentiment in the investment community during the global financial crisis was to turn away from US assets, with some even questioning the dollars status as the worlds reserve currency, the Investment Strategy Group focused on the inherent strengths of the United States. We highlighted its immense wealth, vast natural resources, institutional strengths and human capital advantages.In
