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1、为了适应公司新战略的发展，保障停车场安保新项目的正常、顺利开展，特制定安保从业人员的业务技能及个人素质的培训计划格雷厄姆演讲格雷厄姆-多德都市的超级投资者们THESUPERINVESTORSOFGRAHAM-AND-DODDSVILLE巴菲特1984年在哥伦比亚大学的演讲IstheGrahamandDoddlookforvalueswithasignificantmarginofsafetyrelativetopricesapproachtosecurityanalysisoutofdate?Manyoftheprofessorswhowritetextbookstodaysayyes.The
2、yarguethatthestockmarketisefficient;thatis,thatstockpricesreflecteverythingthatisknownaboutacompanysprospectsandaboutthestateoftheeconomy.Therearenoundervaluedstocks,thesetheoristsargue,becausetherearesmartsecurityanalystswhoutilizeallavailableinformationtoensureunfailinglyappropriateprices.Investor
3、swhoseemtobeatthemarketyearafteryeararejustlucky.Ifpricesfullyreflectavailableinformation,thissortofinvestmentadeptnessisruledout,writesoneoftodaystextbookauthors.格雷厄姆与多德追求“价值远超过价格的安全保障”，这种证券分析方法是否已经过时?目前许多撰写教科书的教授认为如此。他们认为，股票市场是有效率的市场；换言之，股票价格已经充分反应了公司一切己知的事实以及整体经济情况：这些理论家认为，市场上没有价格偏低的股票，因为聪明的证券分析师
4、将运用全部的既有资讯，以确保适当的价格。投资者能经年累月地击败市场，纯粹是运气使然。“如果价格完全反应既有的资讯，则这类的投资技巧将不存在。”一位现今教科书的作者如此与写道。Well,maybe.ButIwanttopresenttoyouagroupofinvestorswhohave,yearinandyearout,beatentheStandard&Poors500stockindex.Thehypothesisthattheydothisbypurechanceisatleastworthexamining.Crucialtothisexaminationisthefactthatt
5、hesewinnerswereallwellknowntomeandpre-identifiedassuperiorinvestors,themostrecentidentificationoccurringoverfifteenyearsago.Absentthiscondition-thatis,ifIhadjustrecentlysearchedamongthousandsofrecordstoselectafewnamesforyouthismorning-Iwouldadviseyoutostopreadingrighthere.Ishouldaddthatalloftheserec
6、ordshavebeenaudited.AndIshouldfurtheraddthatIhaveknownmanyofthosewhohaveinvestedwiththesemanagers,andthechecksreceivedbythoseparticipantsovertheyearshavematchedthestatedrecords.或许如此！但是，我要提供一组投资者的绩效供各位参考，他们长期的表现总是超越史坦普500种股价指数。他们的绩效即使纯属巧合，这项假说至少也值得我们加以审查。审查的关键事实是，我早就熟识这些赢家，而且长年以来便视他们为超级投资者，最近的认知也有十五年
7、之久。缺少这项条件换言之，如果我最近才从成千上万的记录中挑选几个名字，并且在今天早上提供给各位我建议各位立即停止阅读本文。我必须说明，所有的这些记录都经过稽核。我必须再说明，我认识许多上述经理人的客户，他们长年以来所收取的支票确实符合既有的记录。Beforewebeginthisexamination,Iwouldlikeyoutoimagineanationalcoin-flippingcontest.Letsassumeweget225millionAmericansuptomorrowmorningandweaskthemalltowageradollar.Theygooutinthem
8、orningatsuise,andtheyallcalltheflipofacoin.Iftheycallcorrectly,theywinadollarfromthosewhocalledwrong.Eachdaythelosersdropout,andonthesubsequentdaythestakesbuildasallpreviouswinningsareputontheline.Aftertenflipsontenmornings,therewillbeapproximately220,000peopleintheUnitedStateswhohavecorrectlycalled
9、tenflipsinarow.Theyeachwillhavewonalittleover$1,000.在进行审查之前，我要各位设想场全国性的掷铜板大赛。让我们假定，全美国225亿的人口在明天早晨起床时都掷出一枚一美元的铜板。早晨太阳升起时，他们都走到门外掷铜板，并猜铜板出现的正面或反面。如果猜对了，他们将从猜错者的手中赢得一美元。每大都有输家遭到淘汰，奖金则不断地累积。经过十个早晨的十次投掷之后，全美国约有22万人连续十次猜对掷铜板的结果。每人所赢得的资金约超过1000美元。Nowthisgroupwillprobablystartgettingalittlepuffedupaboutthi
10、s,humannaturebeingwhatitis.Theymaytrytobemodest,butatcocktailpartiestheywilloccasionallyadmittoattractivemembersoftheoppositesexwhattheirtechniqueis,andwhatmarvelousinsightstheybringtothefieldofflipping.现在，这群人可能会开始炫耀自己的战绩，此乃人的天性使然。他们可能保持谦虚的态度，但在鸡尾酒宴会中，他们偶尔会以此技巧吸引异性的注意，并炫耀其投掷铜板的奇异洞察力。Assumingthatthew
11、innersaregettingtheappropriaterewardsfromthelosers,inanothertendayswewillhave215peoplewhohavesuccessfullycalledtheircoinflips20timesinarowandwho,bythisexercise,eachhaveturnedonedollarintoalittleover$1million.$225millionwouldhavebeenlost,$225millionwouldhavebeenwon.假定赢家都可以从输家手中得到适当的奖金，再经过十天，约有215个人连续
12、二十次猜对掷铜板的结果，每个人并赢得大约100万美元的奖金。输家总共付出225亿美元，赢家则得到225亿美元。Bythen,thisgroupwillreallylosetheirheads.TheywillprobablywritebooksonHowIturnedaDollarintoaMillioninTwentyDaysWorkingThirtySecondsaMorning.Worseyet,theyllprobablystartjettingaroundthecountryattendingseminarsonefficientcoin-flippingandtacklingske
13、pticalprofessorswith,Ifitcantbedone,whyarethere215ofus?这时候，这群人可能完全沉迷在自己的成就中：他们可能开始著书立说：“我如何每天早晨工作30秒，而在二十天之内将美元变成100万美元。”更糟的是，他们会在全国各地参加讲习会，宣扬如何有效地投掷铜板，并且反驳持怀疑态度的教授说，“如果这是不可能的事，为什么会有我们这215个人呢?”Bythensomebusinessschoolprofessorwillprobablyberudeenoughtobringupthefactthatif225millionorangutanshadengag
14、edinasimilarexercise,theresultswouldbemuchthesame-215egotisticalorangutanswith20straightwinningflips.但是，某商学院的教授可能会粗鲁地提出项事实，如果225亿只猩猩参加这场大赛，结果大致上也是如此有215只自大的猩猩将连续赢得20次的投掷。Iwouldargue,however,thattherearesomeimportantdifferencesintheexamplesIamgoingtopresent.Foronething,if(a)youhadtaken225millionorang
15、utansdistributedroughlyasthepopulationis;if(b)215winnerswereleftafter20days;andif(c)youfoundthat40camefromaparticularzooinOmaha,youwouldbeprettysureyouwereontosomething.Soyouwouldprobablygooutandaskthezookeeperaboutwhathesfeedingthem,whethertheyhadspecialexercises,whatbookstheyread,andwhoknowswhatelse.Thatis,ifyoufoundanyreallyextraordinaryconcentrationsofsuccess,youmightwanttoseeifyoucouldidentifyconcentrationsofunusualcharacteristicsthatmightbecausalfactors.然而，我必须说明，前述事例和我即将提出的案例，两者之间存在着若
