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1、1,Supply Chain Risks and Corporate Performance: Evidence From Demand-Supply MismatchesKevin Hendricks School of Business & Economics Wilfrid Laurier University Waterloo, Ontario, Canada E-mail: khendrickswlu.eduVinod R. Singhal College of Management Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA, 30332
2、 E-mail: vinod.singhalmgt.gatech.edu,2,Without facts you are just another person with an opinion unless you are at a level of the organization where your opinion becomes factWhen research is limited or absent, anecdotes prevailEmpirical research gets more attention from top management and the busine
3、ss press,Why empirical research?,3,Primary risk factors,Survey done by Harris Interactive in 2005.,4,69% of executives indicated that supply chain risks have increased over the past three years (McKinsey 2010)68% of the executives indicated that supply chain risks will increase over the next five ye
4、ars (McKinsey 2010)Second most important issue (IBM 2009)46% reported better supply chain risk management is needed (AMR 2007),Other surveys about supply chain risks,5,Obstacles to addressing risks,Survey done by Harris Interactive in 2005.,6,Supply chain risks causes demand-supply mismatchesSupply
5、is less than demand (undersupply or disruptions)Supply is greater than demand (oversupply or excess inventory)Product introduction delays,Supply chain risks,7,Shareholder valueShare price volatility measure of riskProfitability operating income, sales, and costPerformance impacts estimated after adj
6、usting for the performance of benchmarks,Measuring performance consequences,8,About 1100 announcements from 1987-2007Boeing pushing for record production, finds parts shortages, delivery delays, Wall Street Journal, June 26, 1997Sony Sees Shortage of Playstation 2s for zuijin, Wall Street Journal, S
7、eptember 28, 2000Recent product recalls by ToyotaRecent labor strikes in Shenzen, China,Examples of supply chain disruptions,9,About 850 announcements from 1990-2002Champion International plans to curtail production to reduce its office-paper inventory, The Wall Street Journal, August 4, 1998Intel t
8、o write down inventories of components, Dow Jones News Service, March 16, 1996Growing inventory backlogs at car dealers in China (51 days of inventory in June 2010 instead of 41 days in February 2010),Examples of excess inventory,10,About 435 announcements from 1987-2003Faulty memory postpones launc
9、h of Intel product, The Wall Street Journal, June 6, 2000The new product delays that cut into Boston Scientific Corp.s (BSX) fourth quarter earnings will also hurt the first quarter, its chief financial officer said”, The Wall Street Journal, February 8, 2000Nokia and Research in Motion (Blackberry)
10、 have recently experienced delays in introducing new phones,Examples of product introduction delays,11,(inventory or inventories) near5 (obsolete or obsolescence or excess or excessive or glut or buildup or builds or build or building or reduce or reducing or reduced or reduces or reduction or reduc
11、tions or bloated or bloating or charge or charges or charging or write$ or adjust or adjustment or adjustments or adjusts or adjusting or adjusted or liquidate or liquidates or liquidating or liquidated or loss$ or accumulate or accumulates or accumulated or accumulating or revaluate or revaluates o
12、r revaluated or revaluating or revaluation),Sample creation,12,Method for computing abnormal returns,Estimation period models- Market Model: Ri = ai + Bi Rm- Mean Adjusted Model: Ri = average return during the estimation period- Mean Adjusted Model: Ri = average market return during the estimation p
13、eriod,Abnormal return = actual return expected return,On September 28, 2000, Sony announces a disruptionSet September 28, 2000 as day 0 in event timeDay -1 is the previous trading dayDay 1 is the following trading date,13,Average stock returns on demand-supply mismatch announcements,14,% of firms wi
14、th negative stock returns,15,Comparison with stock market reaction to other corporate events,Financial eventsStock splits 3.3%Open market share repurchase 3.5%Proxy contest 4.2%Increasing financial leverage 7.6%Decreasing financial leverage -5.4%Seasoned equity offerings -3.0%,Marketing eventsChange
15、 in firm name 0.7%Brand leveraging 0.3%Celebrity endorsement 0.2%New product introduction 0.7%Affirmative action awards 1.6%,Information technology eventsIT Investments 1.0%IT problems -1.7%,Operational eventsIncrease in capital expenditure 1.0%Increase in R&D expenditure 1.4%Effective TQM implement
16、ation 0.7%Internal corporate restructuring 1.0%Decrease in capital expenditure -1.8%Plant closing -0.7%,16,Measurement period for share price volatility changes,Announcement date,-514,Year 1,Year 2,262,0,-11,514,11,Year -1,Year -2,-262,Base year,On September 28, 2000, Sony announces a disruptionSet September 28, 2000 as day 0 in event timeFactors used to create benchmarks of firms Prior performance Size Industry,
