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1、基于分等时段序列法的中长期负荷预测基于分等时段序列法的中长期负荷预测电气工程及其自动化专业 学生： 指导教师： 摘要摘要 电力负荷预测是供电部门的重要工作之一，准确的负荷预测，可以经济合理地安排电网内部发电机的启停，保持电网运行的安全稳定性，减少不必要的旋转储备容量，合理安排机组检修计划，保证社会的正常生产和生活，有效地降低发电成本，提高经济效益和社会效益。中长期电力负荷预测是指五到十年左右并以年为单位的预测，主要用于制定电力系统的扩建规划，为该地区未来供电电源点的确定、电力建设规模、电力工业布局以及电网资金和人力资源的平衡提供可靠的依据。由于中长期负荷预测会受到很多不确定因素的影响，因此到目
2、前为止，没有哪一种预测模型能保证在任何不同时间和地区都能获得满意的预测结果。所以在进行负荷预测时，必须分析该地区的负荷变化，结合实际情况，选择合适的预测模型。本文首先简要地介绍了电力系统中长期负荷预测的研究背景和意义、基本原理，对中长期负荷预测研究的现状进行了综述，分析并比较了常用的中长期负荷预测的方法；其次介绍了负荷预测的分类、特点、影响其发展的因素，以及预测误差产生的原因；接着对负荷预测中的灰色模型法进行了深入的分析，讲述了建模的步骤，检验误差的方法和衡量精度的指标等；然后通过对灰色理论预测方法建模机理的研究，找出了灰色建模的局限性并提出了改进的方法：残差预测方法是对 GM(1，1)模型的
3、修正；通过对负荷原始数据序列的预处理及优化，增强了灰色预测对波动负荷数据序列的处理能力，大大提高了灰色预测方法的适用范围和预测精度；对初始条件的选取，可以使拟合曲线更加符合事物未来发展的规律；利用等维新息递推 GM(1，1)模型进行预测，保证了预测能够较为充分地利用新信息，既克服了简单灰色预测法中数学模型固定不变的弊病，又利用了灰色预测法短期预测精度高的优点，能够满足中长期负荷预测的要求；分等时段序列法的应用，使 GM(1，l)中微分方程中参数为时变量，摒弃了该参数固定不变的弊端，使 GM(1，l)模型更适用于中长期负荷的预测。经过改进之后的模型，扩展了普通 GM(1，1)模型的适应范围，提高
4、了预测精度。利用具体实例将分等时段序列法模型与普通 GM(l，1)模型进行比较，证明了改进模型具有比普通 GM(1，1)模型误差小、精度高的优点，是一种较好的预测方法。关关键词键词： ：负荷预测，中长期负荷预测，灰色理论，GM（1，1）模型，分等时段序列法Forecasting for Medium and long Term Load based on Period Equal Division SeriesMajor: Electric Power System and Its AutomationStudent: Chen Zong Zhi Supervisor: Teng HuanAb
5、stract: Load forecasting for power system is one of the important task of power utilities. Accurate load forecasting is helpful to planning generators starting and stopping in the interior of the electrical networks economically and reasonably，preserving the security and stability of power system，re
6、ducing the unnecessary circumvolving repertory capacity，making planning to overhaul the units in reason，ensuring the normal production and life of the society，effectively reducing the cost of generating electricity，increasing the economical and social benefit.Mid-long term power load forecasting tak
7、es 5 or 10 years as an unit for forecasting and is used to work out a plan for expanding power system, provide reliable reference for confirming the future power supplying sites，power construction scale，power industries layout, and for balancing power grid funds and human resources in the local area
8、. Because the mid-long term power load forecasting is affected by many uncertain factors，up to now，no one model can obtain the satisfying forecasting results under different conditions of time and areas. It is necessary to analyze the local load change，think about the practical situation，and to choo
9、se proper method.At first, the paper introduces the importance of the medium and long term load forecasting, principles and its development. Then, you can get the classification 、characteristic and affecting its developments Factors of the medium and long term load forecasting. It also gives a summa
10、rization for load forecasting methods, then a thorough research into grey forecasting method is carried through. Through the research into modeling mechanism of grey forecasting method, the shortages of grey mechanism are found and some improved measures are put forward. Correction to GM(1,1) with a
11、bsolute error grey model is presented; Through the pretreatment and optimization to historieal load data，the ability of grey forecasting dealing with fluctuant load data is strengthened，and the application range and forecasting precision are also enhanced: By selecting initial condition, can make fi
12、t curve to match the rule of the things development in the future; By using equally dimensional new information grey model for forecasting, new information is used in the forecasting, which not only overcomes the shortcoming that the math model is changeless in simple grey forecasting method, but al
13、so makes use of the advantage of the high precision in short term grey forecasting. So it satisfies the request for the medium and long term load forecasting; Period equal division series method changes parameters in differentiate equation into time variables, so the shortcoming of constant paramete
14、rs in GM(1,1) is removed, therefore, GM(1,1) is more applicable for the medium and long term load forecasting. By improving, the applicable range of the common grey model is enhanced. The improved model is compared with the common grey model by calculation example, which shows that the improved mode
15、l has the advantages of small error and high precision and is a good forecasting method.Keywords: Load Forecasting，Medium and Long Term Load Forecasting，Grey Theory， GM(1,1)，Period Equal Division Series目录目录第一章绪论第一章绪论 1 11.1 中长期负荷预测研究背景和意义.11.2 负荷预测的基本原理.21.3 负荷预测的方法及特点.31.4 目前存在的问题.51.5 本文的主要工作.6第二章
16、第二章 负荷预测的总论负荷预测的总论 7 72.1 负荷预测的分类.72.2 负荷预测的特点.82.3 影响中长期负荷发展的因素.92.4 负荷预测的误差分析.92.4.1 产生误差的原因.10 2.4.2 预测误差分析.10第三章第三章 灰色系统的基本理论及预测模型灰色系统的基本理论及预测模型 12123.1 基本原则123.2 基本方法133.3 灰色系统建模的机理133.4 灰色序列及其生成方法143.4.1 累加生成.14 3.4.2 累减生成.15 3.4.3 均值生成.153.5 数列灰预测模型163.5.1 灰色预测模型的建模.163.5.2 灰色预测模型的检验.193.6 算例分析 .21第四章第四章 灰色预测模型的改进灰色预测模型的改进 24244.1 改进的必要性 .244.2 常用的改进方法 .244.2.1 局部残差修正.24 4.2.2 原始数据预处理.25 4.2.3 GM(1，1)预测模型己知条件的选取 25 4.2.4 等维新息处理.264.3 分等时段序列法274.4 算例分析 .28第五章第五章 总结和展望总结和展望 3
