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1、Basics of Supply Chain Management,CPIM Test Review Course 22 Apr 2011,Session 1: Introduction to Supply Chain Management Session 2: Forecasting Session 3: Master Planning Session 4: Material Requirements Planning Session 5: Capacity Management and Production Activity Control Session 6: Inventory Fun
2、damentals Session 7: Inventory Management Session 8: Physical Distribution Session 9: Quality Management and Purchasing Session 10:Just-in-Time Manufacturing,Course Outline,2-1a,Session 2 Objectives,Factors influencing demand Basic demand patterns Basic principles of forecasting Principles of data c
3、ollection Basic forecasting techniques Seasonality Sources and types of forecast error,2-1b,Capacity Management Techniques,Capacity Requirements Planning (CRP),Priority Management Techniques,Resource Planning (RP),Production Plan,Rough-Cut Capacity Planning (RCCP),Master Production Schedule (MPS),Ma
4、terial Requirements Planning (MRP),Production Activity Control (PAC),Operation Sequencing,Input/Output Control,Planning Hierarchy,At each level, there are three questions: What are the priorities? What capacity is available? How can differences be resolved?,2-2,Factors Influencing Demand,General bus
5、iness and economic conditions Competitive factors Market trends Firms own plans _ _,Visual 2-3,Regulatory compliance,Paradigm shift,Sources of Demand,All sources of demand must be identified: Customers Spare parts Promotions Intracompany Other,2-4,Characteristics of Demand,Visual 2-5,Trend,Character
6、istics of demand,Trend up, flat or down Seasonality Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly, etc Random variation Cyclical variation growth and recession,GOLD,货币、股票、房产、白银、土地 各国黄金储备比率，M1，M2 RMB对外升值，对内贬值 利比亚战争 欧洲加息，希腊主权债务危机 美联储货币宽松政策 CPI ?房价？顾票？,Demand Patterns,Stable versus dynamic Stable demand retains s
7、ame general shape over time Dynamic demand tends to be erratic,2-6,Demand Patterns,Dependent versus independent Only independent demand needs to be forecast Dependent demand should never be forecast,2-7,What Should Be Forecast?,Business plan,Market direction,2 to 10 years,Sales and operations planni
8、ng,Product lines and families,1 to 3 years,Master production,schedule,End item and option,Months,Forecast,Time Frame,Level,2-8,What you need to know!,%,$,Q,Principles of Forecasting,Forecasts Are rarely 100% accurate over time Should include an estimate of error Are more accurate for product lines a
9、nd families Are more accurate for nearer periods of time,2-9,Principles of forecasting,Would a forecast be more useful if we forecast an average and a range of probability? Yes, to level off fluctuations,Principles of forecasting,Could you more accurately estimate the average temperature in July or
10、for any one given day in July? Easier to estimate average, level off fluctuations,Principals of forecasting,Forecasts are more accurate for groups of products In groups, the pluses and minuses tend to average out Forecasts are more accurate for nearer periods of time Easier to forecast what will hap
11、pen in the immediate future than in the distant future,Data Preparation and Collection,Record data in terms needed for the forecast Record demand, not shipment Use the same time intervals as used for planning Forecast items controlled by manufacturing Record circumstances relating to the data Events
12、 will influence demand, and these should be recorded Example: Sales Promotion, SARS Record demand separately for different customer groups Different customer groups often have different buying patterns, which should be considered in forecasting,2-10,Forecasting Techniques,Qualitative techniques Quan
13、titative techniques Extrinsic techniques,Qualitative Techniques,Are based on intuition and informed opinion Tend to be subjective Are used for business planning and forecasting for new products Are used for medium-term to long-term forecasting,2-11,Quantitative Techniques,Mathematical techniques Bas
14、ed on historical data usually available in the company Assume future will repeat past Used in production planning,2-12,Extrinsic Techniques,Based on external indicators Based on idea of cause and effect Useful in forecasting total company demand or demand for families of products,2-13,Intrinsic Quan
15、titative Techniques,Visual 2-14,Same as Last Month,Same as Last Jan,Average of some periods,What will this be?,Intrinsic Quantitative Techniques,2-14,Moving Averages,Forecast sales as an average of past months An average of the past 3 months: If January sales are 90, forecast for February,2-15,79.3,
16、88.3,Moving Average Forecasting,Can be used to filter out random variation. Longer periods smooth out random variation. If a trend exists, it is hard to detect. Manual calculations can be cumbersome when dealing with more periods.,2-16,Problem 2.1,2-17,Problem 2.1,2-18,Solution 2.1 - graph the demand,Visual 2-17,Actual,Solution 2.1 - 3 m moving average,Visual 2-18,Solution 2.1,Visual 2-17,Actual,Forecast,Exponential Smoothing,
