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1、1,Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan,Middle East and Central Asia Department International Monetary Fund May 2009,免费小说 http:/,2,MENAP Countries,Oil Exporters (12),Oil Importers (10),3,Outline,World Economic Outlook MENAP Economic Outlook,4,World Economic O
2、utlook: Key Messages,Financial markets remain highly stressed. The world economy will contract in 2009 by around 1 percent before recovering gradually in 2010.Emerging economies face dramatic drops in capital inflows, demand for their exports, and commodity prices. A third wave of the global financi
3、al crisis is hitting the worlds poorest and most vulnerable countries. Turning around global growth depends critically on concerted policy actions to stabilize financial conditions, as well as sustained strong policy support to bolster demand.,5,CDS Spreads for High-Grade Financials (Basis points),S
4、ystemic risks remain elevated despite forceful policy efforts.,Source: Bloomberg.,6,Equity markets and consumer confidence may be stabilizing, albeit at very low levels.,Equities (1/1/2007=100; FTSE),Consumer Confidence (Jan. 2005=100),7,Real GDP Growth (In percent; quarter on quarter annualized),Un
5、employment Rate 1/ (In percent),Across the globe, GDP is falling and unemployment is rising . . .,1/ Aggregated using total labor force as weights. 2/ Excludes China, India, Indonesia, Hungary, and Pakistan.,8,. . . but the pace of contraction in economic activity is showing tentative signs of moder
6、ating. . .,Merchandise Exports (Annualized percent change) 1/,Industrial Production (Annualized percent change) 1/,1/ Three-month moving average.,1/ Three-month moving average.,9,. . . and falling demand and commodity prices should keep inflation in check.,Global Headline Inflation (Percent change f
7、rom a year earlier),10,The global economy is set to contract in 2009 . . .,Real GDP Growth (In percent),11,. . . and to recover only gradually in 2010.,Recovery in 2010 is predicated on:Concerted policy actions to stabilize financial conditions. Strong macroeconomic policy support to bolster demand.
8、 A gradual improvement in credit conditions. Cushioning effect from sharply lower oil and commodity prices.Nonetheless, output gaps will continue to widen through 2010, implying rising unemployment.,12,Risks for the world economic outlook are to the downside.,Further delays in implementing policies
9、to stabilize financial conditions.Deflation risks could reinforce a deeper and longer downturn.Rising threat of corporate defaults in emerging economies.Risks of trade and financial protectionism.Sovereign fiscal sustainability concerns.But, there is upside potential, hinging on bold implementation
10、of policies.,13,MENAP Economic Outlook Oil exporters Oil importers,14,Most oil exporters are maintaining high levels of capital spending.Declining asset prices and slowing economies are putting some strain on corporate and bank balance sheets.,Oil Exporters: Key Messages,15,The collapse in oil price
11、s has caused a drop in exports and government revenue.,Crude Oil Price (APSP, In U.S. dollars per barrel),Exports and Revenue,16,(In billions of U.S. dollars),Governments are continuing to spend, and imports remain high.,17,(In percent of GDP),External and fiscal balances are deteriorating . . .,18,
12、 but contributing to global demand.,Imports (In percent of world imports),19,Despite monetary easing, credit to the private sector has declined.,Interest Rates (In percent),Private Sector Credit Growth (Percent change),20,Asset values have fallen and . . .,Change in Stock Market Indices (Jan 01, 200
13、8 Apr 30, 2009, in percent),Real Estate Price Index (March 2008=100),21,Credit Default Swap Spreads (In basis points; Aug 1, 2008 Apr 29, 2009),. . . some financial sector indicators have worsened.,Corporate Profits (Q4 2008 over Q4 2007),22,Growth has slowed sharply, especially in the oil sector, b
14、ut inflation has come down.,Growth and Inflation, 2007-10 (In percent),1/ Excludes Sudan.,23,Risks to the Outlook,Prolonged global recession Further deterioration in balance sheets of financial institutions but Economic fundamentals remain strong Reserves remain large,24,Policy Priorities,Maintain p
15、ublic expenditure subject to fiscal sustainability. In countries with more limited fiscal space, prioritize expenditure. Keep a close eye on the banking system. Press ahead with structural reforms.,25,Growth is slowing, and financial sectors are showing some signs of vulnerability.Protected by oil e
16、xporters continued spending, the impact on growth has, so far, been moderate.But a prolonged recession in partner countries could have a significant impact on growth, and unemployment and poverty could rise substantially.,Oil Importers: Key Messages,26,In line with lower growth in major trading partners, foreign inflows are weakening.,Real GDP Growth (In percent),Foreign Inflows (In billions of U.S. dollars),27,Effective exchange rates have appreciated.,
