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1、 CBI Research CMs Chloromethanes; MDI - refers to methylene diphenyl diisocvanate; TDI - refers to toluene diisocyanateCoatingRefrigerantsDisinfectant/Building materialChemicals Textile/Dyeing Alumina Pulp/PVC PO CMs MDI/TDI/Aromatics/.Caustic soda 烧碱Chlorine 氯碱Caustic Soda Industry Value Chain烧碱行业的
2、价值链 Electrical power 电力 (electrolytic process )Coal 煤炭Salt 盐Water水Data source: CBI Research and Consulting CBI Research & Consulting, 2010. All rights reserved.112.2.2 Caustic soda industry is facing a very serious oversupply situation中国的烧碱行业正面临一个很严重的供大于求的局面China Caustic Soda Capacity and Production
3、 (2003-2009) 中国烧碱生产能力及产量（2003-2009） Unit: kt Thanks to the demand booming in 2003-2007, caustic soda capacity grows rapidly. Especially in 2005 and 2006, the capacity growth rate reached 29% and 26% respectively.在2003-2007年的需求较 大，烧碱生产能力快速增长。特别是在2005年和2006年，产能增长速度达到29和26。 However, the capacity growth
4、 rate is much lower than the demand growth, which leads to the continually dropping operating rate, from 95.7% in 2003 to 67.9% in 2009.但是，产能增长速度大大高 于需求的增长，从而导致了较低的开工率，从2003年的95.7，降至2009年的67.9。Data source: NBS, CBI Research and Consulting CBI Research & Consulting, 2010. All rights reserved.122.2.3
5、After the double-digit growing in 2003-2007, the growth rate of China caustic soda demand dropped to 3-4% in 2008-2009在2003-2007年两位数的增长后，在2008-2009年，中 国烧碱需求增长率下降到3-4。China Caustic Soda Apparent Demand (2003-2009) 中国烧碱表观需求量（2003-2009）。Demand Structure (2009)Unit: kt The major application areas for ca
6、ustic soda in China are chemicals, light industry and textile industries. China caustic soda demand experienced a booming development in 2002-2007 with the high growth of 13-20%. Due to the global financial crisis, the market growth dropped to 3-4% in 2008-2009 with the annual consumption of 17.9 mi
7、llion ton in 2009.在中国烧碱主要应用领域是化学品，轻工，纺织等行业,2002-2007年中国烧碱需求经历了一个13-20的高增长 ，在2008-2009年由于全球金融危机，市场增长率下降到3-4， 2009年的消耗量为1790万吨。 China caustic soda export stopped its upward trend in 2009, and fell to 1.06 million tons in 2009, due to the decreasing North American market.中国烧碱出口在2009年停止了上升的趋势，由 于北美市场需求下
8、降，2009年下降至1.06万吨，。Data source: NBS, CBI Research and Consulting CBI Research & Consulting, 2010. All rights reserved.132.2.4 China caustic soda market is gradually recovering, but will difficult to re-achieve the double-digit growth due to the oversupply issue中国烧碱市场正在逐步复苏，但由于供大于 求的问题将很难重新取得两位数的增长。Ch
9、ina Caustic Soda demand Trend (2009-2030) 中国烧碱需求趋势（2009年至2030年）。Unit: kt The market demand is expected to recover since 2010 with an estimated CAGR 6.6% from 2010 to 2015自2010年 起市场需求有望恢复，2010年到2015年的年增长率预计在6.6% From 2015 to 2030, China caustic soda demand will keep a stable growth with a lower CAGR
10、of 4.6%, due to the saturated market and large consumption base.自2015年到2030年，由于市场饱和，和高消耗基地，中国的烧碱市场 将以年增长率4.6%的较低的增速稳定的增长。 The export market will increase again from 2010 and is not predicted to reach 2008 levels. The export ratio is expected to maintain 5.9% of annual caustic soda production.预计从2010
11、年起，出口市场将再次增长，单预计达不 到2008年的水平，烧碱产品的出口年增长率预计在5.9% Data source: CBI Research and ConsultingDemand CAGR 6.6% 2009-2015Demand CAGR 4.6% 2016-2030 CBI Research & Consulting, 2010. All rights reserved.142.2.5 China caustic soda oversupply issue will exist for a long time 2.2.5中国烧碱供大于求的问题将长期存在 China Caustic
12、 Soda Capacity and Production (2009-2015) 中国烧碱生产能力及产量（2009-2015）。. China caustic soda oversupply issue will exist for a long time, although the market demand will keep growing.中国 烧碱供大于求的问题将存在很长一段时间，虽然市场需求将继续增长。 The capacity is based on CBI demand data base. We count in scheduled expansion. While reg
13、ard to the announced bur not scheduled expansion, we take them as uncertain capacities and not include them in the above sheet.依据CBI的需求数据估算需求量。我们希望能按照预定的增长。但 是如果依据以宣布的缺口而不是按照计划扩张的话，我们只能够把它作为不确定的需求，在上述的 表格中不包含这个需求。Data source: CBI Research and ConsultingUnit: kt CBI Research & Consulting, 2010. All r
14、ights reserved.14%20%26%27%60%53%2.2.6 Costal areas take up the largest part of total capacity, while the capacity in Northwest area and Inner Mongolia has the fastest growth. 沿海地区占总需求的最大部分，而在西北地区和内蒙古需求增长最快 。Unit: kt CBI Research & Consulting, 2010. All rights reserved.162.2.7 Chlorine downstream ca
15、n hardly make aggressive effect on caustic soda operating rate.下游的氯碱很难对烧碱工厂的开工率有积极的影响 As one dangerous chemical, chlorines transportation is highly regulated in China. Recently, more than 90% of chlorine production in China is for the captive applications, such as PVC, PO ( propylene oxide ), CMS (c
16、hlorinated methanes), EHC (epichlorohydrin) and chlorinated-paraffin.作为一种危险的化学品，氯的运输在中国是高度管制的 ，目前超过90%的氯产品是限制性应用品，如PVC,PO,CMS,EHC和氯代烷烃。 PVC is the largest downstream consuming 40% of total chlorine demand in 2009. Driven by the stimulus package and economic revival, the CAGR of China PVC demand will be around 6.5% from 2010 to 2015.PVC是下游最大的氯 产品的消费群，在2009年占总氯消耗的40%，在经济刺激计划的促动下，在2010-2015年，中国PVC需求的复合增长 率将在6.5 Unless the growth rate
