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1、Greg Gould U.S. IT ServicesApril 2002IT Services Investment PerspectiveIT Services Investment PerspectiveADP Ceridian PaychexPayroll ProcessingAffiliated Computer Services Computer Sciences CGI Group Electronic Data Systems Exult Fiserv UnisysIT OutsourcingTransaction ProcessorsConcord EFS Certegy C
2、hoicePoint First Data Corp. Global Payments Sabre Total System Services Transaction SystemsAccenture Anteon Cognizant DiamondCluster InforteIT Consulting / Systems Integration Keane KPMG Consulting Predictive Systems SapientAmdocs ConvergysCustomer Care and BillingU.S. IT Services Coverage GroupIT S
3、ervices Investment PerspectiveKey Sector Stock PointsnGood overall demand and attractive valuationsnSector net income growth should reach 15% in CY02nIncreased focus on accounting helps investment case for processors and systems integratorsnTech rebound? nFavorite areas processing and outsourcingnSt
4、ock ideas:nProcessing First Data, Concord, ADPnOutsourcing ACS, ExultnIT consulting/systems integration Accenture, KPMG Consulting, CognizantIT Services Investment PerspectiveNote: Includes AUD, CSC, EDS, FDC, FFM, FISV, NDC, PAYX. GS&Co. and First Call estimates.Valuation TrendsIT Services Investme
5、nt PerspectiveIndustry PerspectivenLarge industry - $440 billion in worldwide revenuenHighly fragmented marketnThe “center of gravity” has shifted to the larger firmsnAreas with the highest growth potentialnBPO (Business Process Outsourcing)nPlatform consolidation / technology asset optimizationnNet
6、work and desktop outsourcingnMid-market outsourcingnShift in payment systemsIT Services Investment PerspectiveIT Services Estimated Market Share of the Top Worldwide Services Providers6IT Services Investment PerspectiveIT Outsourcing TrendsnExpect 12-15% year-over-year growth in calendar 2002, simil
7、ar to 2001nFocus on corporate cost cutting should continue to fuel sales activity in 2002-2003nBPO is becoming increasingly important to the sectornThird-party financing “controversy” has recedednDemand from government clients will be an important incremental growth drivernFavorite stocksnAffiliated
8、 Computer Services (ACS)nExult (EXLT)nElectronic Data Systems (EDS)7IT Services Investment PerspectiveBPO (Business Process Outsourcing) Outsourcing Evolvesn$100-120bn market opportunitynAnticipate 15-20% sector growth, but likely faster in “early adopter” markets (e.g., HR, F&A)nIntellectual capita
9、l (vs. scale) is the critical success determinantnAttractive economicsnTechnology enablers eliminate important delivery and cost obstaclesnBuyer familiarity with outsourcing eliminates psychological hurdles8IT Services Investment PerspectiveBPO A Comparison Vs. Traditional Data Center OutsourcingGro
10、ss Margin : 18-25% contract length - 3-7 years client expansion opportunity - moderate/high partnership attitude - moderate Pricing metrics include: (1) Resources Used (2) service level agreement Incentive (3) minimums. Typical functions include: (1) data center operations (2) LAN/WAN operations (3)
11、 help desk (4) application maintenance (5) application development.IT only key to success is scale the biggest challenge is infrastructure optimization 50% of the time the competition is internal when there is competition the focus is on price and service level agreementsGross Margin: 30-40% contrac
12、t length - 3-7 years client expansion opportunity - high partnership attitude - high Pricing metrics include: (1) Volume of throughput (2) service level agreement Incentive (3) minimums. Typical functions include: (1) Human resources (2) Sales, marketing and customer care (3) Payment servicing (4) F
13、inance and administration (5) Logistics.IT and Process key to success is standardized workflow, process automation and self-service the biggest challenge is re-engineering to best practice 100% of the time the competition is internal winning the business is based on best practices and cost reduction
14、Example: Claims ProcessingExample: Data Centers9IT Services Investment PerspectiveIT Consulting/Systems Integration TrendsnSome reasons for hope the tone of business appears to be stabilizing nBigger is better the larger firms are on a multi-year trendline to gain market share nMaturation of the Int
15、ernet tech cycle nServices now leads technology implementations nDemand drivers nTechnology platform consolidation nCost cutting through process re-engineering nApplication outsourcing nTechnology asset optimization nERP, CRM, network consulting, security and infrastructure software nRisks nInherent
16、ly low visibility nClose rates nPricing nEurope n“Changing” complexity of engagements10IT Services Investment PerspectiveIT Consulting/Systems Integration TrendsnConsulting spin-offs by auditors unlikely to boost demand muchnPotential $2-4bn opportunitynAnnounced intentions by PwC and Deloitte to spin-off should limit client attritionnInherently volatile overall business trends this may get lost in the noise11IT Services In
