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1、Bob HaywardTechnology Trends 2004-2008These materials can be reproduced only with Gartners official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail - . 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.The Long View Mid-Life Pause For Breath for IT-based Transformation of Business19
2、70198019902000201020202030Silicon AgeNano Transactions to Process Innovation Flexible Application Platform Portal, Integration, App Server, APS, SOALeverage Enterprise Knowledge Content, Data, Analytics, Relationship MgmtTransaction Processing ERP, SCM, Customer Transactions, etc.Business Collaborat
3、ion Smart Enterprise Suites, MultienterpriseEnd-to-End Processing Business Process FusionLowHighMedLowMaturity in 2003LowMission- Critical20072005Now20052004LowBusiness ValueHigh20 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.Gartner Predicts: Application Development Models, Toolset
4、s Are Changing50%100%1998200320022000 200119992004 2005Proprietary Vendor 4GL, AS/400 RPG, Mainframe COBOL, etc.Microsoft .NETMicrosoft DNAJava Platforms1M2M3M200220032004200520062007New Projects Programming ModelsProfessional DevelopersCOBOLVisual Basic 6 and lowerC/C+JavaC#Visual Basic .NET21 2003
5、 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.Static and Unshared IslandsService AEdgeApplicationDatabaseService BService C Inefficient Overprovisioned Hard to manageCurrent state is inflexible and does not reflect business priorities(And Many Others)22 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affi
6、liates. All Rights Reserved.Policy Based Management: The Real-Time InfrastructureBlack-Box Application ServicesActual User ExperiencePolicies Definition of IT Service Service Agreements User Class Business PrioritiesINPUTSComputeStoreNetworkResourcesWorkloads ApplicationsDatabases MiddlewareOUTPUTSI
7、T ServicesPolicy-based, dynamic, cost-efficient: Provisioning: Deployment, Growth Optimization: Resource Efficiency Availability: Predictable, Service Level 23 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.IP TelephonyVoIP on WAN issuesQoS controlEconomics vs carrier trendsIP variabl
8、e latencyStandards and interoperabilityIP telephony issuesFeatures vs PBXScalabilityReliabilityQoS and sharing networksInteroperabilitySome Missing FeaturesAttendant consoleLeast cost routingBusy overrideTrunk callback queuingBlind transferLess then 500 phones; VoIP over WANLarge IP Telephony (500 o
9、r more phones)Very Large IP telephony (2,000 or more phones)24 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.Utility Computing Utility computing Buy the services of system, not HW/SW Separates the what from the how Pricing model tends toward usage Examples: ASPs, SSPs, MSPs, hosting
10、services Access them various ways Web services Browsers Thick clients . . .8.6B$200325B$200625 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.GRID ComputingApplicationOwner COwner AOwner B26 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.Utility Computing and GRIDApplic
11、ationUtility selling grid resourcesOwner A27 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.Honey Pots, Application Traces and ForensicsFirewallsIDSVAGatewayAVSecurityPlatformIn the Cloud MSSIntrusion Prevention AppliancesAnti- spamContent ScanningSub- 100 MbGigabit+200220042006?Polic
12、ies andParametersNew Network Security TechnologyU n i f i e d M a n a g e m e n t28 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.Current ApplicationsnToll pass systemsnPet identificationnAccess cardsnRetail theft protectionnElectronic parolee tracking Photos source Texas Instruments
13、Successor to Bar CodesnCan read even coverednCan read while movingnCan scan at distancenSurvives water, heat, paintingnPrice dropping to low levelsnRemain in product for lifePotential ApplicationsnLocate common objectsnImproved asset controlnReal-time retail-shelf inventorynMove to faster or self-ch
14、eckoutnImprove manufacturing and supply-chain efficiencynAfter-sale services offeringsRFID Tag29 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.“Smart” Objects20022015 Passive tags temporarily attached to medium-/high- value items. Dedicated communication and computation is applied in
15、 specialized situations only. Computers are relatively large and long-lived. Passive tags in every nontrivial object. Active intelligence wireless networking and sensing capabilities cost under 50c and are widely distributed. The majority of computers are invisible and disposable. Bar coded shopping
16、. Inventory tagging. Specialized industrial tagging. Nothing is ever lost. Everything is identifiable. Many objects know their history and can interact wirelessly.30 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.More informationImproved understandingImproved decisionsAnalysis GapAction GapnDigital footprints (Sensors, RFID)nSelf-servicenInformation extra
