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1、EM Asia 2H17 outlook: Back to the mean1H17 growth in EM Asia surprised to the upside, driven by tech and commodity-related sectorsSofter China and G-3 capex, should see growth normalize in 2H17Tech launches and semiconductor demand should benefit North Asian economies more than othersStabilized capi
2、tal outflows in China, reduced volatility opens policy space for PBOC to refocus on domestic issuesDespite recent cyclical lift, core inflation has been on a downtrend, suggesting limited domestic pricing powerGlobal financial conditions should remain supportive of EM Asia balance of payments revise
3、d up, premised on relatively well tele- graphed G3 central bank reaction functions Watching Chinas financial plumbing and G3 capexAs we look to 2H17, some of these same conditions are ex- pected to hold accommodative global financial conditions and a stable US$. This view is premised on a slow-and-2
4、Economic Research EM Asia 2H17 outlook June 30, 2017JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch Sin Beng Ong (65) 6882-1623 Plateauing growth, anticipating easy finan- cial conditionsAs we mapped out the EM Asia narrative for 2017 last year, we had penciled in an asymmetry in growth amid reflationar
5、y policies in the US due to rising trade restrictions that would lead to limited growth spillovers to the rest of the world (see “EM Asia 2017 Outlook: Feels more like 2015,” JPMM, December 2). This in turn would have led to a tight- ening in global financial conditions, reflected in steepening term
6、 structures and a generally stronger US$ as US growth differentials rose against EM Asia.However, as 2017 progressed, the forecast outcomes did not materialize. Instead, growth in EM Asia surprised to the up- side, led by a synchronized lift in China and the G3 (Figure 1). Moreover, the trend weaken
7、ing in the US$ NEER and bull-flattening in the US term structure kept financial condi- tions easy (Figure 2). EM Asia thus experienced the upside from growth but with limited headwinds from tightening global financial conditions, effectively the best of all combinations.steady fed funds normalizatio
8、n, underpinned by a US econ- omy growing around a trend like 1.8%q/q, saar, a slow- moving normalization by the ECB and a deftly executed fi- nancial deleveraging in China.Growth expected to revert to the meanEM Asia growth is expected to regress to the mean after solid gains in 4Q16 and 1Q17. This
9、rests on the forecast of China slowing to 6.4%q/q, saar in 4Q17 from 6.9% in 1Q17 and the rest of EM Asia reverting to a trend-like 3.3-3.4%q/q, saar pace in 2H17 from a touch over 4% in 1Q17 (Figure 3). EM Asias regression to the mean reflects several regional and global sub-plots (see “Uncovering
10、sub-plots in EM Asias cyclical narrative,” JPMM, April 28). The first is premised on normalization in DM capex, especially in the US (Figure 4).The second subplot is the policy-induced slowing in China in 2H17, which based on regression estimates, would reduce EM Asia ex CN growth by 0.2%pts over th
11、at period (Figure 5).46481151200.5 Jan 16Jul 16Jan 17Jul 17Jan 18 Source: Bloomberg, J.P. MorganSource: National sources, J.P. Morgan forecasts 505254562012201320142015201620172018Figure 1: DM and EM Asia manufacturing PMI Index, saSource: Markit, SIPMM, J.P. Morgan; 1. CN, KR, SG and TWEM Asia-41,
12、export weightedDM1251301.0Figure 2: US 2s10s and US NEER%-pt1.52s10sIndex. invertedUS NEER6.06.57.07.58.08.5234567201220132014201520162017Figure 3: EM Asia ex. CN real GDP %2q, saar, both scalesChinaEM Asia ex CN/IN3020100-10-20-30-20-1001020201220132014201520162017Figure 4: US equipment spending an
13、d EM Asia exports%q/q, saar, real terms%3m/3m, saar, US$ termsSource: BEA and national sourcesUS eqpt. spendingEM Asia exports3Economic Research EM Asia 2H17 outlook June 30, 2017JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch Sin Beng Ong (65) 6882-1623 The final piece is the expected product launch of
14、 the IPhone 8 in 2H17, which should benefit Taiwan and Korea and this is already evident in the recent Taiwanese data (Figure 6).A related development in the tech space is the unusually strong semiconductor billings, which also are reflected in the regional data. This should benefit regional semicon
15、ductor producers, primarily Korea, Singapore and Taiwan as semi- conductor billings lift in 2H17, led by memory demand ( see “Semiconductor/SPE Sectors: Again Raising Forecasts for Semiconductor Market Value, JPMM, June 7,” and Figure 7).China policy space opens, focus on finan- cial deleveragingAlt
16、hough Chinas recent data reinforce our expectations that real GDP growth should ease modestly to 6.6%q/q, saar in the current quarter from 6.9%q/q saar in 1Q. This slowdown is occurring within the context of a policy induced deleverag- ing and its impact on the economy is important for the 2H outlook. The impact of the deleveraging is evident in the re- cent moneta
