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1、 ?600382? ? ? ? ?+? ? ? ? 2015/16 ? EPS0.39?1.63 ? ? 84%? 2014 ? 316%? ? 42.4%? ? ? ? ? ? 22 ? ? 2016 ? 13.5 ? PE? 62%? ? ? ? ? ? ? 28 ? PPP ? ? ? ? ? 20 ? ? ? ? 15 ? ? 13.30 ? 2016 ? PE ? 8 ? ? 50%? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E ? 55 135 156 2,724 4,490 (+/-)% -81% 148% 15% 1644%
2、65% ?EBIT? 28 63 73 636 1,029 (+/-)% 185% 128% 16% 772% 62% ? 201 844 134 558 843 (+/-)% -18% 319% -84% 316% 51% ? 0.59 2.47 0.39 1.63 2.47 ? 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 ? 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E ?(%) 50.8% 46.7% 46.7% 23.4% 22.9% ?(%) 12.1% 33.8% 5.2% 18.3% 22.0% ?(%) 2.5% 3.2% -43.3% -42.5% -34
3、.6% EV/EBITDA 133.7 59.9 32.4 1.5 -1.0 ? 22.6 5.4 33.9 8.2 5.4 ? (%) 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% ?2015.08.04 ? ? ? ?600382? ? ? ? ? 22.00 ? 13.30 2015.08.04 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?%? -24%-15%-6%3%12%21%1m3m12m52 ? 8.94-24.56 ? 4,545 ? ? 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E ? 55 135 156
4、2,724 4,490 3,708 1,339 252 290 334 ? 7 53 61 1,700 2,822 2,250 800 100 115 132 ? 4 5 6 110 182 150 54 10 12 13 ? 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ? 16 14 16 277 457 377 136 26 30 34 EBIT 28 63 73 636 1,029 931 349 116 134 154 ? 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ? 178 87 87 87 87 100 115 132 152 174 ? -10 2 -32 -73 -87 -144 -
5、167 -229 -263 -343 ? 215 147 191 796 1,203 1,174 630 477 548 672 ? 10 280 44 185 279 273 146 111 127 156 ? 2 81 13 54 81 79 43 32 37 45 ? 201 844 134 558 843 822 441 334 384 470 ? ? ? 13 298 2,007 3,573 5,569 5,969 5,524 5,029 5,651 5,921 ? 10 613 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ? 797 799 799 799 799 799 799 799 79
6、9 799 ? 45 36 21 8 -3 -13 -20 -26 -30 -31 ? 1,016 891 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ? 1,898 2,705 2,877 5,988 8,052 8,272 6,410 6,130 6,303 7,048 ? 167 108 195 2,743 3,930 3,293 993 390 185 456 ? 23 0 1 3 6 10 15 21 28 36 ? 1,662 2,495 2,561 3,050 3,825 4,579 4,952 5,217 5,533 5,935 ?(IC) 1,065 1,500 -129 -1,151
7、-2,288 -1,851 -985 -186 -448 -263 ? NOPLAT 26 48 56 489 791 715 268 89 103 118 ? 7 8 5 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -7 ? 23 34 29 990 1,107 -465 -892 -823 240 -206 ? -2 -6 907 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 ? 54 84 998 1,510 1,928 278 -598 -710 365 -68 ? -1 -395 714 1,518 1,947 338 -523 -591 506 130 ? -110 890 994 115 115
8、128 142 160 179 202 ? 18 -209 1 -66 -66 -65 -64 -64 -63 -63 ? -94 285 1,709 1,566 1,996 400 -445 -495 622 270 ? ? ? -81.1% 148.0% 15.5% 1644.1% 64.8% -17.4% -63.9% -81.2% 15.0% 15.0% EBIT ? 185.2% 128.0% 15.6% 772.2% 61.8% -9.6% -62.5% -66.6% 15.0% 15.0% ? -18.1% 319.1% -84.1% 316.1% 51.2% -2.4% -46
9、.3% -24.3% 15.0% 22.5% ? ? 86.9% 60.9% 60.9% 37.6% 37.1% 39.3% 40.3% 60.4% 60.4% 60.4% EBIT ? 50.8% 46.7% 46.7% 23.4% 22.9% 25.1% 26.0% 46.1% 46.1% 46.1% ? 369.2% 623.9% 85.8% 20.5% 18.8% 22.2% 33.0% 132.5% 132.4% 141.0% ? ?(ROE) 12.1% 33.8% 5.2% 18.3% 22.0% 18.0% 8.9% 6.4% 6.9% 7.9% ?(ROA) 10.6% 31
10、.2% 4.7% 9.3% 10.5% 9.9% 6.9% 5.5% 6.1% 6.7% ?(ROIC) 2.5% 3.2% -43.3% -42.5% -34.6% -38.6% -27.2% -48.1% -22.9% -45.0% ? ? 367 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 ? 10 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 ? 11989 6210 6524 594 571 803 2001 9072 7821 7303 ? -0.01 -0.47 5.33 2.72 2.31 0.41 -1.19 -1.77 1.32 0.28 ?/? 4% 4
11、% -581% -1% -1% -1% -2% -11% -10% -8% ? ? 10.0% 4.0% 6.8% 45.8% 48.9% 39.9% 15.7% 6.7% 3.4% 7.0% ? 9.3% -11.9% -78.3% -117.0% -145.4% -130.1% -111.3% -96.0% -101.6% -99.2% ? PE 22.6 5.4 33.9 8.2 5.4 5.5 10.3 13.6 11.8 9.7 PB 2.7 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 EV/EBITDA 133.7 59.9 32.4 1.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.8 -4.1 -8.4 -9.1 P/S 83.3 33.6 29.1 1.7 1.0 1.2 3.4 18.0 15.7 13.6 ? 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% ?-10%17%
