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1、 ? ? 2015 ? 1?2 ? 10.7%? ? 1?2 ? 2%? ?1?2 ? 2?3%? ? ? ? 2009 ? 43%? 2014 ? 50%? ? ? O2O ? ? ? B2C ? 5 ? ? ? 300 ? APP ? ? 1 ? 2000 ? 3 ? ? ? ? ? ?12 ? 10.2 ?4%? 2015 ? 37 ? PE?22.1 ?15%?29 ? 2015PE? ?9.9 ?7%?29 ? 2015PE?5.3 ? ?38%?34 ? 2015PE? A ? ? PEG ? 2015 ? ? 2 ? ? A ? 3 ? 5 ?(002251.SZ)? 7 ?(6
2、01933.SS)? 9 ?(000759.SZ)? 11 ?002264.SZ? 13 ? 15 ?2015?3?16? ? 1:? ? * ? 12 ?DC ? EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC ? ?Datastream ?/? ?P/E 15E15E ?15E?002251.SZCNY22.116.015%BB38%1.5X DC1 X PEG2927%-10%?000759.SZCNY9.96.37%NN57%1.5X DC1 X PEG2963%-22%?601933.SSCNY10.28.04%NB28%1.5X DC1 X PEG376%-52%?002264.SZC
3、NY5.34.7-38%SS13%1.5X DC1 X PEG34110%-3%?3 ? A ? ? ? DC ? PEG ? Directors Cut(DC)? ? 2:? 1.5X ? 3:? ?DC ? y = 1.5384x R = 0.893400.511.522.50.00.40.81.21.62015E EV/GCI2015E CROCI/WACCYonghuiBetter LifeNHDZhongbai? ? CROCI13.2%12.8%9.2%9.4% WACC11%11%11%11% CROCI/WACC (X)1.20x1.17x0.84x0.86x ?1.5x1.5
4、x1.5x1.5x ?0%0%0%0% ?1.50x1.50x1.50x1.50x ? EV/GCI1.80x1.75x1.26x1.28x GCI (?, 2015E)23,111 10,320 5,071 10,010 ? EV (?, 2015E)41,692 18,066 6,379 12,855 ? (?, 2015E)6,699 403 35 551 ? (?, 2015E)(15,285) (5,286) (3,597) (6,641) ? (?, 2015E)(5) (2) 32 (26) ? (?)33,10013,1812,8496,738 ? (mn)3,25459754
5、2681? (?)10.2022.105.309.90 ? (?)8.0016.004.706.30 ?28%38%13%57% ?9.7719.208.509.28 ?/?4%15%-38%7% ?NeutralBuySellNeutral ? 2015E P/E (X)36.7 29.3 34.4 29.5 ? 2015E P/E (X)35.2 25.5 55.2 27.6 4 ? 2014-16 ? ? ? 4:? ? 5:? vs ? ? 201420152016201420152016002251.SZ?9%?12%?13%?25%?19%?17%?4Q14?1Q15? ?0007
6、59.SZ?0%?1%?2%?19%10%?1%?201 5?601933.SS?2%?5%?7%?2%3%2%? ? ?002264.SZ?10%?12%?14%?66%?42%?45%? ? 201420152016201420152016201420152016 ?353 450 565 351 372 466 0.6%20.8%21.3% ?141 229 267 167 180 208 -15.9%27.2%28.2% ?850 1,130 1,412 850 1,090 1,370 0.0%3.7%3.1% ?40 83 95 133 141 154 -70.1%-40.9%-38
7、.1%? ? ?5 ? ? 6:? ?1?2 ? ? 7:? ?“?”? 2,000 ? 500 ? ? ? ? CEIC ? 8:? ?3,000 ?2015 ? 1 ? ? 5%? ?%? ? 9:?2014 ? ? ? ?“3000 ?”? ?CEIC? ? 10.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%1/20067/20061/20077/20071/20087/20081/20097/20091/20107/20101/20117/20113/20129/20125/201311/20137/20141-2/2015-20-1001020304050608/200712/20074/2
8、0088/200812/20084/20098/200912/20094/20108/201012/20104/20118/201112/20115/20129/20121-2/20136/201310/20134/20148/201412/2014?-10-505101520253035401/20067/20061/20077/20071/20087/20081/20097/20091/20107/20101/20117/20111/20127/20121/20137/20131/20147/20141/2015?%?3000?-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2
