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1、*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations.European UtilitiesBy Adam Dickens, Verity Mitchell and Jose A LopezAfter three years of share underperformance by the utilities, there is light at the end of the tunnel.Look fo
2、r secure yield, priced-in political risk, successful restructuring and deep value: we are Overweight on IPR, E.ON, GDF Suez, Iberdrola and Veolia.Regulated utilities fully valued; stay vigilant on stocks heavily exposed to sovereign risk.Disclosures and Disclaimer This report must be read with the d
3、isclosures and analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of itUtilities/EquityNovember 2011European UtilitiesPolitics and permafrost: negotiating the pitfallsUtilities/Equity November 2011Adam Dickens* Analyst HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 6798 Adam is
4、a utilities analyst covering the European power and downstream gas sectors. He has 16 years experience covering the utilities industry, working in Paris and London. He re-joined HSBC in June 2008.Verity Mitchell* Analyst HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 6840 Verity Mitchell is the HSBC utilities analyst co
5、vering UK water and electricity utilities and French and US water utilities, a position she has held since 1998. Prior to that she worked in project finance for HSBC advising on infrastructure projects including mandates in the water, transport and defence sectors. Before joining HSBC she worked bri
6、efly for what was then DTI, now the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills. Jose A Lopez* Analyst HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 6710 Jose joined HSBC in 2009 as a utilities analyst, focusing on Iberian and regulated Italian utilities. He holds a bachelors degree in Economics from UCAB, Caracas a
7、nd an MA in Economics from the University of Colorado at Boulder. Jose is a level 3 candidate in the CFA programme. Prior to working in Finance, Jose worked in the utilities industry in several roles including: Texas Utilities Europe, Entergy Wholesale Operations and Entergy-Koch Trading and finally
8、 Electricite de France S.A. where Jose worked within the Corporate Strategy Division in Paris (part of the CEOs Support Service Department). Jose is fluent in English, Spanish and French.1 Utilities Equity - Europe 22 November 2011 abcInvestment summary: Three key recommendations for 2012 1. Risks r
9、emain be wary of Italy and France, avoid value traps and be mindful of overgearing: We see macro and/or political risk to the fore in Italy and France in 2012 (Underweight on Enel and EDF), and would also avoid stocks with balance sheet constraints, lack of growth profile (Underweight on RWE and CEZ
10、), as well as those sensitive to carbon prices (Underweight on Fortum and Verbund). 2. Good prospects for the generators: Excess capacity and reduced demand are priced in, as is political risk. The increased use of wind in the generation mix in Europe will require more flexibility of generation. We
11、like the non-regulated integrated generators E.ON, GDF Suez and Iberdrola (all Overweight): the shares offer yield and earnings growth from 2012 on our estimates, with political risk priced in. 3. Seek exposure to growth outside the eurozone: Our top UK energy pick is IPR (Overweight), particularly
12、in view of its LNG exposure; the yield proposition of SSE and National Grid (both Neutral) diminishes prior to transmission review. We consider UK water to be fully valued and awaiting regulatory announcements and in waste/water we prefer Veolia and Suez Environnement (both Overweight). Utilities: n
13、egotiating the pitfalls Consistent 2009-11 sector underperformance vs MSCI reflects financial strain, uninspiring European pricing and risks of politically- motivated revenue grabs. We believe that much of this is now priced in, and that several major stocks, in particular E.ON, GDF Suez, IPR, Veoli
14、a and Iberdrola, can look ahead to 2012 with more confidence HSBCs top European utility picks for 2012 (share prices as of close 16 November 2011) Share price New rating (TP) Old rating (TP)Comment International Power 335p OW 400p OW 370pEmerging markets, LNG E.ON* EUR17.3 OW EUR20.0 UW EUR16.0Less
15、political risk, re-deployment and cost-cutting in focus GDF Suez* EUR19.7 OW EUR24.0 N EUR23.0Politics priced in, yield, emerging markets and LNG Iberdrola* EUR4.74 OW EUR5.7 N EUR5.6Political risks exaggerated, LatAm newsflow EDP EUR2.30 OW EUR3.0 OW EUR3.0Better visibility as government sells stak
16、e Centrica 295p OW 350p OW 340pCentrica well placed to benefit from EMR Snam Rete Gas EUR3.35 OW EUR4.0 OW EUR3.8Sustainable dividend policy, attractive equity story Enagas EUR13.5 OW EUR16.0 EUR18.5Room for further increases in dividend payout ratio Veolia Environnement EUR8.73 OW(V) EUR11.0 N(V) EUR11.0Q3 signals the bottom: Investor day to boost visibility, ex-EU growth Suez Environn
