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1、Randy TinsethVice President, Marketing Boeing Commercial AirplanesJune 2007COPYRIGHT 2006 THE BOEING COMPANYHow will airline networks develop?How fast will traffic grow?Current Market Outlook 2007 Boeings view of air travel for the next 20 yearsW A T C H I T E M SW A T C H I T E M SProduct Strategy
2、and DevelopmentProduct Strategy and DevelopmentAirplane ForecastAirplane ForecastCOPYRIGHT 2006 THE BOEING COMPANYAgenda?Market evolution ?Market outlook? Traffic forecast? Airplane forecast?Product strategy and developmentCOPYRIGHT 2006 THE BOEING COMPANYIncreased LiberalizationChanging Airline Str
3、ategiesIncreased Airplane CapabilitiesAviation is moving from being highly regulated to a more liberalized and competitive marketplaceCOPYRIGHT 2006 THE BOEING COMPANYPassengers drive airline strategiesIncreased LiberalizationChanging Airline StrategiesIncreased Airplane Capabilities? Safe and relia
4、ble service ? Lower fares in comfortable surroundings ? Nonstop service with more frequency choicesCOPYRIGHT 2006 THE BOEING COMPANYAir travel growth has been met by increased frequencies and nonstopsIndex 1980=1.000.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.019801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006Frequ
5、ency GrowthNonstop MarketsAverage Airplane Size Air Travel GrowthAugust OAGWorldCOPYRIGHT 2006 THE BOEING COMPANYIt costs less to carry passengers point-to-pointNonstop flights result in Lower costs Increased revenue Better utilization Less environmental impact More convenience for passengerNew York
6、New YorkMunichMunichLondonLondonSeat-Mile CostA320 / A380Base787-811% Lower777-300ER13% LowerCOPYRIGHT 2006 THE BOEING COMPANYMarket evolution summary? World markets are evolving? Liberalization continues to create a more competitive environment? Airlines are responding to passengers desires to save
7、 time with new, more capable aircraft? Airlines have accommodated air travel growth by adding more frequencies and nonstops ? Boeing expects these trends to continueCOPYRIGHT 2006 THE BOEING COMPANYAgenda?Market evolution ?Market outlook? Traffic forecast? Airplane forecast?Product strategy and deve
8、lopmentCOPYRIGHT 2006 THE BOEING COMPANY02468101219861996200620162026HistoricalLong-Term Growth 2007 - 2026 GDP = 3.1% Passenger = 5.0% Cargo = 6.1%Long-Term Growth 2007 - 2026 GDP = 3.1% Passenger = 5.0% Cargo = 6.1%RPKs (trillions)Future20-year forecast: strong long-term growthHistoric Growth 1986
9、 2006 GDP = 2.9% Passenger = 4.8% Cargo = 6.3%COPYRIGHT 2006 THE BOEING COMPANY05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000Middle East - Asia-PacificAfrica - EuropeLatin AmericaEurope - Latin AmericaNorth America - Latin AmericaTranspacificEurope - Asia-PacificChinaNorth AtlanticEuropeNorth AmericaAsia-PacificRPKs
10、, billions6.73.54.78.8 6.25.55.8* Includes China*2006 traffic2006 trafficAdded traffic 2007-2026Added traffic 2007-2026Annual growth %Air travel growth varies by region 4.75.06.65.63.4World Average Growth: 5.0%COPYRIGHT 2006 THE BOEING COMPANY0062011201620212026ForecastForecastAir Travel GrowthFrequ
11、ency GrowthNonstopsAverage Airplane Size and this trend will continueand this trend will continueAirlines have met air travel growth with more frequencies and nonstopsRoutes over 3,000 miles0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0198619911996200120Index (1986=1.0)HistoryHistoryAir Travel GrowthFrequency Growt
12、h NonstopsAverage Airplane Size2006COPYRIGHT 2006 THE BOEING COMPANYAirlines will need over 28,600 new airplanes62%13%3%22%28,600 airplanes2.8 trillion delivery dollars*In year 2006 dollars45%42%4%9%747 and larger Twin-aisle Single-aisle Regional jetsIncludes CISCOPYRIGHT 2006 THE BOEING COMPANY010,
13、00020,00030,00040,000Units18,200 Growth18,200 Growth10,400 Replacement10,400 Replacement7,800 Retained Fleet7,800 Retained Fleet18,20018,20036,40028,60020062026Long-term demand for new airplanes remains strongCOPYRIGHT 2006 THE BOEING COMPANYOlder, less efficient airplanes will be replaced with more
14、 efficient, newer generation airplanesFokker F70 BAe 146 Avro RJ YAK-42 Fokker 100 B737-200 DC-9 B737 Classics B727-200 MD-80/90 TU-154 B757A300/310 IL-86 L1011 DC-10 MD-11 B747 Classics B747-400AVIC ARJ21 CRJ900/1000 Superjet 100 E190/195 A320 Family B737NG Family TU-204/214 TU-334IL-96 A330/340 B7
15、87 Family A350 Family B777 Family B747-8I A380SingleSingle- -aislesaislesTwinTwin- -aislesaislesCOPYRIGHT 2006 THE BOEING COMPANYBenefits of airplane replacement? 1,390 km (750 nmi) more range ? 16% lower fuel burn per seat ? 12% lower cost per seat ? 30% smaller noise footprint747747- -400400747747
16、- -8I8IMD-83MD-83737-800737-800? 1,333 km (720 nmi) more range ? 27% lower fuel burn per seat ? 19% lower cost per seat ? 50% smaller noise footprintCOPYRIGHT 2006 THE BOEING COMPANYThere are more than 18,200 aircraft in-service operating in many regions and diverse business modelsAfrica 3%Latin America 5%Middle East 4%CIS 8%Asia- Pacific 19%North America 38%Europe 23%Where
