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1、The New Rules for Investing Now Smart Portfolios for the Next Fifteen Years Contents Preface Acknowledgments 1. The Perfect Storm 1 2. Where You Start Determines Where You End Up 17 3. Salvation from Small Stocks 53 4. Showdown: Large-Cap Growth Versus Value 73 5. Which Bonds Are Right for My Portfo
2、lio? 99 6. Behavioral Economics: Why We Know What Isnt So 115 7. Demographic Trends: Friend or Foe? 135 8. Roll Your Own: Using Stock Selection Strategies to Improve the Odds 147 9. Using Mutual Funds and Exchange Traded Funds 177 v xi xiii 10. 401(k)s: Tax-Advantaged Savings Work 189 11. Allocating
3、 Your Assets: The Best Portfolios for the Next Twenty Years 201 12. Putting It All Together 225 13. The Fast Approaching Future: The Markets of Tomorrow Will Soon Be the Markets of Today 237 Index 252 xiv Contents 1 The Perfect Storm January 1, 2000a new millennium dawning and all was right with the
4、 world. The United States stood unchallenged astride the world, the last and only superpower. Communism was van- quished in the former USSR, the Berlin Wall reduced to rubble, communist and socialist systems around the world in retreat, re- placed by liberal democratic capitalism. President Clinton
5、an- nounced the end of the era of large government, the United States was at peace and prosperous, the governments coffers overflowed with a surplusand a horde of first-time investors viewed them- selves as heirs to a glimmering world. The world they knew, the world they had known for the last twent
6、y years, was one of unlim- ited possibilities. 1 2 THE NEW RULES FOR INVESTING NOW The NASDAQ had increased tenfold in the last decade. New- era stocksvirtually all linked to technology or the Internet doubled and then doubled again. Making money seemed as simple as just making the decision to inves
7、t; investors felt double-digit returns were practically their birthright. You couldnt lose. A swarm of new investors descended upon the stock market, eager to make their fortune overnight. The most renowned analysts of the time called for a continuation of the “goldilocks economy,” with brief and mi
8、ld recessions and a Federal Reserve that would manage the vast U.S. economy so that all landings would be soft. Even the most cantankerous market bears were letting down their guard and learning to love the bull market. To the Greek chorus on Wall Street, it truly was different this time. Many inves
9、tors had tried to watch patiently from the sidelines, waiting for a market pullback before joining the fray. The problem was, the market rarely did pull back, and when it did turned right around and quickly raced past the old highs. The last pullback had been in the third quarter of 1998, when a hos
10、t of problems including Russias default on its sovereign debt, the Asian markets collapsing into crisis, and the meltdown of one of the countrys largest hedge funds, Long-Term Capital Managementhad briefly put the nations equities on sale. But since that brief buying opportunity, investors continued
11、 to push shares of profitless companies skyward. They based many of their decisions on what market analysts were saying on CNBC or even more likely on what they had read about a stocks prospects on one of the countless new Internet chat boards devoted to in- vesting. Valuing investments the old-fash
12、ioned wayby analyzing their books, profits, dividends, and prospects for earnings and dividend growth over the longer termwas relegated to the dust- bin of history. The Perfect Storm 3 In this new era of unbound confidence, such traditional analy- sis reeked of dusty libraries and outmoded technique
13、s. In the new era, all you had to do to get rich was to be in the game. It really didnt matter what stocks you bought, provided they were in the hot and sexy new industries of the time: technology companies, Internet companies, or just about anything associated with growth. Indeed, to focus on any t
14、raditional concept of valuation was to limit oneself, since under the new paradigm, the spoils went to those with “first mover” advantage, regardless of cost. Investing in stocks with the best valuations was considered to be hopelessly out of fashion and a marker for suckers who just “didnt get it.”
15、 Its Different This Time The new-era mantras were “if you build it, they will come” and “its different this time.” Initial public offerings (IPOs) were all the rage, with investors going to great lengths to be put on “friends and family” lists. Stock analysts were the new rock stars, their views sou
16、ght out by an eager and gullible public looking for any advan- tage in the marketplace. All the old methods of valuing a stock were replaced by metrics such as eyeballs per million, page views, and projected revenue growth. It was a true stock market fever. Fueling the fire was the sheer fact that the numbers didnt lie. Someone who had invested $10,000 at the start of 1995 would have seen his account bloated with profit fi
