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1、Gold Demand Trends Second quarter 2014August 2014 www.gold.orgGold demand in Q2 2014 was 964 tonnes, lower compared with Q2 2013 but in line with its 10 year average. Jewellery demand weakened year-on-year, but the broad 5-year uptrend remains intact. Investment demand pulled back from the extremes
2、of last year amid relatively stable price conditions. Central banks continued to buy gold at a steady pace. Read moreContributorsLouise Street louise.streetgold.orgKrishan Gopaul krishan.gopaulgold.orgAlistair Hewitt alistair.hewittgold.orgMarcus Grubb Managing Director, Investment Strategy marcus.g
3、rubbgold.orgContentsExecutive summary 02Global gold market second quarter 2014 review 06Jewellery 06Investment 09Central banks 12Technology 13Supply 13Gold demand data providers 16Gold demand statistics 17Appendix 26Notes and definitions 29Tonnes Gold demand vs 10-year average Gold demand 10-year qu
4、arterly average Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters; World Gold Council 02004006008001,0001,2001,400Q104 Q106Q108Q110Q112 Q114 Gold Demand Trends | Second quarter 2014In line with our expectations,1 Q2 gold demand of 963.8 tonnes (t) was considerably weaker year-on-year 16% below Q2 2013s 1,148.3t. Sharp
5、declines in the consumer segments of gold demand came as no surprise, given the stark contrast in conditions in the global gold market between the two time periods. Jewellery demand was almost a third lower, while bar and coin investment was less than half Q2 2013 levels. Gold ETFs saw modest outflo
6、ws of 39.9t, which were far smaller than the 402.2t of outflows seen during the year-earlier period. The net impact on overall investment was a modest 4% year-on-year increase. Executive summaryDemand in the Technology sector declined by 3%. Economic improvement in a number of consumer countries off
7、set the impact of continued substitution away from gold (in favour of relatively inexpensive alternatives) in electronic applications. Central banks continued to make net additions to gold reserves, purchasing 117.8t in Q2. Year-to-date net purchases amount to 242.1t. Viewed on a half-yearly basis,
8、demand from this sector has been remarkably consistent since the beginning of 2011. 1 As presented in Gold Demand Trends, First quarter 2014.Table 1: Q214 gold demand overview TonnesUS$mnQ213Q2145-year averageYear on year % changeQ213Q2145-year averageYear on year % changeJewellery726.7509.6522.6-30
9、33,05721,10823,337-36Technology103.8101.0108.8-34,7224,1834,847-11Investment225.7235.4349.3410,2669,75215,996-5Total bar and coin demand627.9275.3343.2-5628,56311,40515,740-60ETFs and similar products-402.2-39.96.1-18,297-1,654256-Central bank net purchases92.1117.882.0284,1874,8793,99917Gold demand
10、1,148.3963.81,062.6-1652,23239,92248,180-24Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters; World Gold Council 02_03Gold market steadies in calmer watersSo far this year, the gold market has steadied following the extreme moves that were seen in 2013. The rapid 25% drop in the gold price during the April-June period
11、of 2013 sparked a leap in gold demand that we have heard described as a once in a generation event. By contrast, the recent quarter saw the US dollar gold price hold within a relatively narrow sideways range (Chart 1) with the result that price volatility in the second quarter was well below average
12、 levels.2 This became something of a self-fulfilling cycle as gold investors, lacking strong conviction in their price expectations, held off from buying gold thereby further contributing to the subdued price environment. A decline in local price premiums in regional markets notably India and China
13、further confirmed a muted appetite for gold, after a great deal of purchasing was effectively brought forward during last years rush.The second quarter saw a continuation of many of the factors that were in play during Q1: the huge stockpiling of gold that took place in Asian markets during 2013 was
14、 still, to some extent, being digested; the election and import restrictions forestalled Indian consumers; bar and coin investors continue to sit on the sidelines; while jewellery consumers in the US and UK were further encouraged by improving economic conditions. Gold prices steadied during the sec
15、ond quarter, in contrast to the volatility seen during Q2 2013. Price expectations among gold consumers and investors were uncertain, reflecting the lack of clear direction.Index level Chart 1: The gold price in key currencies (Indexed 01/01/2013 = 100) US dollar Euro Indian rupee Chinese renminbi S
16、ource: The London Gold Market Fixing Ltd; Thomson Reuters Datastream; World Gold Council Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jun 2013 Sept 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 60 70 80 90 100 110 2 For a more detailed discussion of gold price volatility in 2014, see Investment commentary, First half 2014, World Gold Council http:/www.gold.org/investment/gold-investment-researchGold Demand Trends | Second quarter 2014
