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1、16PLANNINGPLANNINGASSESSMENT/ EVALUATIONINITIATIONPLANNINGF_LC21004_Guideline_8.5x11_INSIDE_mech.pdf IN1611/12/14 11:54 AM2Foreword 1Table of contents 2Acknowlegements 4Key findings 5Key actions for the next ten years 6Introduction 7Purpose of the Roadmap update 7Rationale for nuclear energy and Roa
2、dmap scope 8Roadmap process, content and structure 8Nuclear energy progress since 2010 9Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident: 11 March 2011 9Nuclear power generation and new build at the end of 2014 10Construction of Generation III reactors 11Long-term operation of existing reactors 12Regional perspective
3、s for nuclear energy 14Vision for deployment to 2050 21Revised targets for nuclear compared with 2010 Roadmap 21Emissions reductions from nuclear 23Global investment in nuclear to 2050 23 Regional costs assumptions for nuclear 24Nuclear energy technology development: Actions and milestones 25Reactor
4、 technology 25Nuclear fuel cycle 33Decommissioning 36Facilitating the deployment of nuclear technologies: Actions and milestones 38Licensing and regulation 38Nuclear safety 40Financing nuclear development 42Training and capacity development 45Codes and standards, supply chain development and localis
5、ation issues 48Communication and public acceptance 51Conclusion: Near-term actions for stakeholders 53Annex 55Abbreviations, acronyms and units of measure 56References 57List of figuresFigure 1: Nuclear reactor construction starts, 1955 to 2014 11Table of contents3Figure 2: Grid connection rates and
6、 required rates to reach 2DS target 11Figure 3: Electricity production by technology in 6DS and 2DS 21Figure 4: Nuclear generation capacity in 2DS by region 22Figure 5: Emissions reduction in the power sector in 2050 in the 2DS 23Figure 6: Reactor types under construction worldwide (2014) 25Figure 7
7、: Evolution of fission reactor technology 31Figure 8: MOX fuel fabrication 35Figure 9: New enhanced safety requirements in Japan 41Figure 10: An illustrative taxonomy: Sectors and functions 46List of tablesTable 1: Summary of characteristics for nuclear power development in various regions 14Table 2
8、: Investment needs in the 2DS (USD billion) 24Table 3: Examples of Generation III reactor designs 28Table 4: Examples of small modular reactor designs 29Table 5: Progression in terms of localisation 58List of boxesBox 1: Peer review process among nuclear operators: WANO (Case study 1) 10Box 2: Lesso
9、ns learnt from Generation III construction projects (Case study 2) 12Box 3: The integrated architect-engineer model, a proven industrial model to optimise design, construction and operation of NPPs (Case study 3) 13Box 4: IAEA Milestone Approach for national nuclear infrastructure: UAE experience (C
10、ase study 4) 19Box 5: Energy Technology Perspectives 2015 (ETP) 6DS and 2DS 22Box 6: Research for extended operation (beyond 60 years) of NPPs (Case study 5) 27Box 7: Nuclear fusion: A long-term source of low-carbon electricity 32Box 8: Progress towards implementation of a deep geological disposal s
11、ite in Sweden (Case study 6) 34Box 9: Recycling of spent fuel (Case study 7) 35Box 10: Decommissioning in Germany (Case study 8) 37Box 11: International collaboration among regulators: Multinational Design Evaluation Programme (Case study 9) 39Box 12: Environmental impact assessments in Finland (Cas
12、e study 10) 40Box 13: New enhanced safety standards in Japan (Case study 11) 41Box 14: Financing of new units at the Vogtle Power Plant in Georgia, USA (Case study 12) 43Box 15: The Akkuyu build, own and operate model (Case study 13) 44Box 16: Nuclear skills assessment in the United Kingdom (Case st
13、udy 14) 47Box 17: Setting up and qualifying a supply chain for Generation II and Generation III reactor technology: The case of heavy component manufacturing in China (Case study 15) 49Box 18: Preparing for a new build programme in an industrial country: Supply chain survey (Case study 16) 505? Nucl
14、ear power is the largest source of low-carbon electricity in OECD countries, with an 18% overall share of electricity production in 2013 and second at global levels with an 11% share. The updated vision for the 2014 Nuclear Roadmap based on the 2 degrees Celsius (C) scenario (2DS)1 of Energy Technol
15、ogy Perspectives: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050 (IEA, forthcoming 2015) sees nuclear continuing to play a major role in lowering emissions from the power sector, while improving security of energy supply, supporting fuel diversity and providing large-scale electricity at stable production costs.?
16、 In the 2D scenario, global installed capacity would need to more than double from current levels of 396 gigawatts (GW) to reach 930 GW in 2050, with nuclear power representing 17% of global electricity production. Although lower than the 2010 Roadmap vision of 1 200 GW and 25% share of generation, this increase still represents a formidable growth for the nuclear industry.? The near-term outlook fo