《世界黄金年鉴2011》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《世界黄金年鉴2011（50页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、 Gold Survey 2011 Philip Klapwijk Executive Chairman, GFMS Ltd. Denver Gold Group European Gold Forum Zurich, 14th April 2011 GFMS gratefully acknowledge the generous support from the following companies for this years Gold Survey and its two Updates ScotiaMocatta Tanaka Precious Metals Kinross Gold
2、 Corporation Barrick Gold Corporation www.IBKC Johnson Matthey www.gold.org INTL Commodities, INC. Commerzbank Global Precious Metals Paulson Thomson Reuters 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Euro/oz Euro Gold Price Weekly A
3、verages Euro/oz 26-week moving average EURO 2009 2010 Q1 2011 Average 700.19 924.99 1,012.32 Intra-Year 22.3% 36.2% -3.7% Year-on-Year 18.0% 32.1% 26.2% Source: GFMS; Thomson Reuters 90 100 110 120 130 140 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Index (4th Jan 2010=100) Rand/kg Euro/
4、kg US$/oz Rupee 10g/g Gold Prices in Different Currencies Indexed Daily Series Source: GFMS; Thomson Reuters 50 100 150 200 250 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Index (4th Jan 2010=100) Copper Silver CRB US 10-year bond Gold and Other Assets Thomson Reuters DJIA Gold 0 300 600
5、 900 1200 1500 1800 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 US$/oz Real and Nominal Gold Prices (real US$ price in constant 2010 terms) Nominal Price Real Price Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters New record nominal annual average reached in 2010, but in real terms todays prices are still below histo
6、rical peaks. 1980 average: $1,626 1980s high of $850 equals to over $2,248 in real 2010 terms Supply Gold Supply in 2010 (tonnes) 2009 2010 y-o-y Mine production 2,589 2,689 3.8% Official sector sales 34 - n/a Old scrap supply 1,695 1,645 -2.9% TOTAL SUPPLY 4,318 4,334 0.4% Source: GFMS (Gold Survey
7、 2011) GFMS Mine Supply Database Over 100 companies analysed on a quarterly basis production/costs/corporate activity Over 300 mines recorded on an annual basis production/ costs/reserves/grade Over 320 projects projected production profile, start-up date, capex, reserves, resources Informal mine pr
8、oduction measured on a country-by- country basis Costs measured at 70% of Western World gold production Bottom-up cost analysis methodology to assess $/tonne mining, ore processing and on-site administration costs, plus benchmarking of fuel, power, labour productivity and other key inputs Global ana
9、lysis and forecasting of mine supply, breakdown of industry cost structures and trends, benchmarking Gold Mine Production 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 tonnes Australia 2010 up 99t or 3.8% yoy Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2011) North America Latin America South Africa Chi
10、na Other -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 tonnes Argentina Burkina Faso Mine Production: Winners and Losers (Figures represent year-on-year change, i.e. 2010 less 2009) Indonesia United States China South Africa Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2011) Australia Peru 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q
11、1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 US$/oz Latin America North America South Africa Other Major Western World Mines Cash Costs (in money-of-the-day terms) Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2011) Australia Year-on-Year Changes to Cash Costs 440 460 480 500 520 540 560 580 600 620 Total Cash Costs (US$/oz) Source: GFMS (G
12、old Survey 2011) 478 557 +39 +24 +16 +15 +10 +7 +5 -2 -9 -25 2010 vs 2009 Mine Production 99 tonne increase equal to 3.8% y-o-y in 2010; a second successive year of annual growth. This left production at an all-time high of 2,689 tonnes, surpassing the previous record of 2,646 tonnes in 2001. Growth
13、 was recorded in all regions. Significant gains in Australia, China, Argentina and the United States. Increases stemmed from both the start of new operations, and redevelopment of previously suspended operations. US dollar denominated total cash costs increased by an average 17%, or $79/oz, to $557/
14、oz in 2010. GFMS proprietary All-In Costs measure increased by 20% to an average of $857/oz. Above-Ground Stocks of Gold, end-2010 Above-ground Stocks, end 2010 = 166,600t Gold is not “consumed” like most commodities; stocks can be available at the right price Jewellery 52% Official Holdings 16% Pri
15、vate Investment 19% Other Fabrication 11% Lost the high $1,300s are a possible low over the next three months, with prices in that region most likely to be very well supported by bargain hunting and stock replenishment. Supply expected to rise fairly strongly this year, with continued growth in mine production. Scrap supply has remained relatively low year-to-date but should recover in the latter part of 2011 basis h
