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1、? ?002444? ? ?3D? ? ? 2016 ? 3D ? AGV ? ? ? ? ? ? 2016 ? ? 3D ? ? AGV ? 2015-2017 ? EPS ? 0.45?0.55?0.64 ? 3D ? ? 25 ? ? AGV ? 3D ? ? 3D ? 8 ?/? ? ? 3D ? ? AGV ? ? 3D ? ? 10 ?/? ? ?3?/? ?AGV? ? 2015 ? ? 9000 ? ? 2016 ? 2 ? 39%? 50% ? 65%? 2016 ? 3500 ? ? ? 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E ? 2,646 2,866
2、 3,177 3,492 3,920 (+/-)% 14.8% 8.3% 10.8% 9.9% 12.3% ?EBIT? 541 665 585 641 717 (+/-)% 55.6% 23.0% -12.1% 9.7% 11.8% ? 428 508 483 596 687 (+/-)% 51.8% 18.8% -4.8% 23.2% 15.3% ?0.40 0.47 0.45 0.55 0.64 ? 0.10 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.30 ? 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E ?(%) 21.4% 24.7% 20.3% 20.4% 20.3% ?(%
3、) 12.1% 13.0% 11.4% 10.3% 10.7% ?(%) 31.3% 32.8% 29.6% 31.4% 34.5% EV/EBITDA 33.6 27.0 29.6 26.8 24.0 ? 48.9 41.2 43.3 35.1 30.5 ? (%) 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% ?2016.04.25 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 25.00 ?20.00 ? 19.45 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?%? -2%3%8%13%19%24%1m3m12m? ?52 ? 10.85-27.20 ? 20,914 ?
4、? ? 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E ? 2,160 2,306 2,646 2,866 3,177 3,492 3,920 ? 1,587 1,711 1,917 2,011 2,324 2,555 2,869 ? 3 4 5 6 5 5 6 ? 111 143 159 139 191 199 216 ? 111 130 150 166 178 189 204 EBIT 360 348 541 665 585 641 717 ? 1 6 17 -32 -9 -12 -13 ? 23 21 118 144 114 109 105 ? -3
5、-10 51 16 15 -14 -37 ? 364 358 489 649 570 656 754 ? 95 85 99 147 138 161 174 ? 190 294 304 447 7 9 10 ? 275 282 428 508 483 596 687 ? ? ? 1,465 1,566 1,133 1,466 1,772 3,215 3,863 ? 936 1,035 1,673 1,824 1,819 1,976 2,117 ? 469 689 1,174 1,396 1,204 1,263 1,266 ? 264 411 527 649 656 620 567 ? 80 80
6、 106 113 113 119 123 ? 3,213 3,780 4,613 5,449 5,564 7,193 7,935 ? 351 626 876 1,345 1,148 1,250 1,326 ? 198 188 122 133 105 85 68 ? 2,664 2,966 3,614 3,971 4,311 5,858 6,541 ?(IC) 994 1,131 1,728 2,031 1,973 2,044 2,078 ? NOPLAT 269 266 439 516 456 507 574 ? 22 23 27 42 61 71 78 ? 284 (15) 468 169
7、(58) 106 90 ? 62 147 116 122 64 32 21 ? 637 421 1,050 850 523 715 763 ? 44 451 333 484 512 438 536 ? (516) (500) (775) (507) 270 (3) 74 ? 13 68 (312) 51 (454) 996 40 ? (459) 19 (754) 29 328 1,431 651 ? ? ? 14.8% 6.7% 14.8% 8.3% 10.8% 9.9% 12.3% EBIT ? -7.0% -3.5% 55.6% 23.0% -12.1% 9.7% 11.8% ? 2.6%
8、 2.4% 51.8% 18.8% -4.8% 23.2% 15.3% ? ? 26.5% 25.8% 27.6% 29.8% 26.8% 26.8% 26.8% EBIT ? 16.7% 15.1% 20.4% 23.2% 18.4% 18.4% 18.3% ? 12.7% 12.2% 16.2% 17.7% 15.2% 17.1% 17.5% ? ?(ROE) 10.5% 9.7% 12.1% 13.0% 11.4% 10.3% 10.7% ?(ROA) 8.6% 7.5% 9.3% 9.3% 8.7% 8.3% 8.7% ?(ROIC) 27.0% 23.5% 25.4% 25.4% 2
9、3.1% 24.8% 27.6% ? ? 27 30 28 32 31 31 31 ? 105 112 104 93 85 91 89 ? 517 553 579 641 633 667 704 ? 0.16 1.60 0.78 0.95 1.06 0.74 0.78 ?/? 2.89% 6.38% 4.40% 4.27% 2.02% 0.91% 0.55% ? ? 17.1% 21.5% 21.7% 27.1% 22.5% 18.6% 17.6% ? -44.3% -37.5% -15.3% -9.1% -22.8% -40.7% -46.4% ? PE 35.9 35.0 46.1 38.
10、8 43.3 35.1 30.5 PB 8.0 7.2 5.9 5.4 4.9 3.6 3.2 EV/EBITDA 49.9 51.5 33.6 27.0 29.6 26.8 24.0 P/S 9.68 9.07 7.90 7.30 6.58 5.99 5.34 ? 0.0% 1.3% 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% ?-45%-29%-13%2%18%34%2015/4 2015/7 2015/10 2016/1-16%-6%3%13%23%33%? ?0%5%9%14%19%23%11A12A13A14A15E16E17E? ?0%6%11%17%22%28%11A12A13A14A15E16E17E? ?-3035-2428-1821-1214-607011A12A 13A 14A 15E 16E 17E-46%-37%-28%-19%-9%0%?
