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1、Simulation with ArenaChapter 1 What Is Systems Simulation?Slide 1 of 24Systems Simulation系系 統統 模模 擬擬郭幸民郭幸民 國立高雄第一科技大學運籌管理系 2009.9.15phone: 6011000-3216 smguoccms.nkfust.edu.tw www2.nkfust.edu.tw/smguo/teaching/simulation.htmSimulation with ArenaChapter 1 What Is Systems Simulation?Slide 2 of 24教科書與成
2、績計算教科書與成績計算KeltonKelton et alet al., ., “ Simulation with ARENASimulation with ARENA” , fourth, fourth edition, McGrawedition, McGraw- -HillHill 教學助理教學助理 侯智偉侯智偉 9723821 成績計算成績計算 Homework50% Final Exam40% Participation10%Warning: 作業請勿抄襲，期末考為上機實作測驗http:/Simulation with ArenaChapter 1 What Is Systems S
3、imulation?Slide 3 of 24預定教學進度預定教學進度1 1- -3 3ChapterChapter 1 1, 2, 3, 2, 3系統模擬概念、系統模擬概念、ARENAARENA介紹介紹4 4- -6 6ChapterChapter 4 4, 5, 5基本模式構建基本模式構建7 7- -9 9Chapter 6Chapter 6基本實驗分析、基本實驗分析、程式除錯與驗證程式除錯與驗證1010- -1212Chapter 7Chapter 7進階模式與實驗分析進階模式與實驗分析1313- -1414Chapter 12Chapter 12虛擬亂數與變異數降低技術虛擬亂數與變異數
4、降低技術15,1615,16Chapter 9,10Chapter 9,10進階模式與指令進階模式與指令1717模擬於運籌管理之應用模擬於運籌管理之應用1818Final ExamFinal ExamSimulation with ArenaChapter 1 What Is Systems Simulation?Slide 4 of 24What is Systems Simulation?Chapter 1Simulation very broad term methods and applications to imitate or mimic real systems, usually
5、 via computer Applies in many fields and industries Performance evaluation, not optimizationSimulation with ArenaChapter 1 What Is Systems Simulation?Slide 5 of 24SystemsSystem facility or process, actual or plannedManufacturing facility, Bank operationAirport operations (passengers, security, plane
6、s, crews)Transportation/logistics/distribution operationHospital (emergency room, operating room, admissions)Computer network, Freeway systemBusiness process (insurance office)Supermarket, Fast-food restaurant,Theme parkEmergency-response system, Criminal justice systemStudy the system measure, impr
7、ove, design, controlSimulation with ArenaChapter 1 What Is Systems Simulation?Slide 6 of 24Work With the System?Maybe just play with the actual systemAdvantage: unquestionably looking at the right thing But it s often impossible to do so in reality with the actual systemSystem doesn t existWould be
8、disruptive, expensive, or dangerousStudy the model instead of the real systemusually much easier, faster, cheaper, saferSimulation with ArenaChapter 1 What Is Systems Simulation?Slide 7 of 24ModelsModel set of assumptions/approximations about how the system worksCan try wide-ranging ideas with the m
9、odelMake mistakes on the computer where they dont countJust building the model is instructive regardless of resultsModel validity (any kind of model not just simulation)Care in building to mimic reality faithfullyLevel of detailGet same conclusions from the model as you would from the actual systemS
10、imulation with ArenaChapter 1 What Is Systems Simulation?Slide 8 of 24Types of ModelsSystemExperiment with the real systemExperiment with a model of the systemPhysical modelVirtual modelMathematical modelSimulationSimulation with ArenaChapter 1 What Is Systems Simulation?Slide 9 of 24Computer Simula
11、tionComputer Simulation uses software to imitate the system s operations and characteristics, often over time Can be used to study simple models but real power of simulation is in studying complex models Simulation can tolerate complex models since we don t even aspire to an analytical solutionSimul
12、ation with ArenaChapter 1 What Is Systems Simulation?Slide 10 of 24Different Aspects of SimulationStatic vs. DynamicDoes time have a role in the model? Continuous-change vs. Discrete-changeCan the “ state” change continuously or only at discrete points in time? Deterministic vs. StochasticIs everyth
13、ing for sure or is there uncertainty? Most operational models:Dynamic, Discrete-change, StochasticSimulation with ArenaChapter 1 What Is Systems Simulation?Slide 11 of 24Simulation by ARENATell a “ story” about what happens to orders or customersDynamic: 隨著時間演進，顧客陸續到達，處理完成後離開 Discrete change: 系統狀態為各
14、站的顧客或訂單數目 Stochastic: 訂單到達時間與處理時間均有隨機變化Simulation with ArenaChapter 1 What Is Systems Simulation?Slide 12 of 24Advantages of SimulationFlexibility to model things as they are (even if messy and complicated) Allows uncertainty, nonstationarity in modelingDanger of ignoring system variabilityModel val
15、idity Advances in computing/cost ratios Advances in simulation softwareFar easier to use (GUIs)No longer restrictive in modeling (hierarchical, down to C)Statistical design & analysis capabilitiesSimulation with ArenaChapter 1 What Is Systems Simulation?Slide 13 of 24The Bad NewsDon t get exact answ
16、ers, only approximations, estimatesAlso true of many other modern methodsCan bound errors by machine roundoff Get random output (RIRO) from stochastic simulationsStatistical design, analysis of simulation experimentsExploit: noise control, replicability, sequential sampling, variance-reduction techniques 需要軟體操作需要軟體操作、系統流程系統流程、統計分析的概念統計分析的概念 缺乏中文參考資料缺乏中文參考資料Simulation with ArenaCha
